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Gavekal Research
Gavin Bowring
Apr 18th 2011
Central Banks Pass the Parcel
Despite successive rounds of tightening by many countries in the region, Asian central banks largely remain way behind the curve, with robust monetary aggregates and, in many cases, negative real interest rates. But given that the Fed has failed to lead by example in tightening, countries that should be reining in capital further have become hesitant and reluctant to tighten too fast, on fears of inviting destabilizing inflows and driving their...
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Apr 15th 2011
GaveKal Daily - Is There a Way Around the Malthusian Roadblock?
Viewed from a global perspective, one could characterize the Fed’s aggressively dovish monetary policy as a ‘Game of Chicken’ with the emerging market surplus countries. In this game, the US$ continues to decline, and commodities continue to rise, and the loser is the first country to give. The US would throw in the towel by raising interest rates to spare its economy the pain of rising energy prices; the surplus countries would cry uncle by...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Gavin Bowring
Apr 14th 2011
China And Indonesia: Together At The Coal Face
China’s ravenous demand for natural resources, prompted initially by post-financial crisis stimulus spending and now by the knock-on effects of high economic growth, has helped forge stronger economic integration between China and its neighbors in southeast Asia. One of the most striking examples is the relationship with Indonesia, where a complex set of trade and investment ties are now emerging, led by China’s need for high-quality Indonesian...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Janet Zhang
Apr 11th 2011
DragonWeek - Industrial Profits & Inflation
DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Apr 06th 2011
GaveKal Daily - Is Oil the New Interest Rate?
With Brent oil at US$122, and other commodities (gold, silver, corn…) making new highs, the single most important question confronting investors is whether oil has become the new interest rate. In a typical cycle, interest rates rise along with economic activity until nominal rates move above nominal GDP growth, triggering a slow-down in growth. However, in this cycle, the dovishness of central banks appears so deeply ingrained that commodity...
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Gavekal Research
Will Freeman
Apr 04th 2011
Will China Enter the Corn Trade?
As US corn prices make new highs, and global supply remains tight, rumors of significant Chinese corn imports have once again become a hot topic. Speculation that China had re-entered the market for US corn sparked a +14% rise in Chicago corn futures two weeks ago. On March 25, the USDA reported a number of deals to export 1.25mn tons of corn, or about 3% of total 2010 exports; many traders believe these exports are destined for China. Sinograin...
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Apr 04th 2011
Hong Kong’s Favourite Hedge
With prices for shoddy apartments reaching eye-watering heights, it is hard to go out in Hong-Kong without every other conversation rapidly turning to the increasingly prohibitive price of real estate. And the main question is always how much higher can prices go? As we write, the mortgage repayment to income ratio is back on its long term moving average, highlighting that if interest rates move up from their current rock-bottom levels, the...
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Gavekal Research
Apr 04th 2011
Two Reasons the HKD Peg Will Not Go Away
Like wine, inflation numbers for Hong Kong come in three colors, with the red (in this case property prices) far more important than either white (CPI) or rosé (PPI). Now the current acceleration in HK inflation, and the fact that Hong Kong real estate prices continue to make new highs (thereby helping make Hong Kong one of the most expensive cities to live), is not that surprising. As our friend Simon Ogus from DSG Asia puts it: “Hong Kong is...
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave
Mar 31st 2011
GaveKal Daily - Can Capitalism Work Without a Cost of Capital?
It is obvious that central banks operate with four policy gauges:
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Will Freeman, Research Team
Mar 28th 2011
DragonWeek - High Speed Rail
DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Mar 24th 2011
The Renminbi Grows Up, Slowly
After the 2008 global financial crisis, Chinese officials identified the US-dollar based monetary system as a contributor to the crisis and a source of systemic risk for the global financial system. In response, they began a program for internationalizing the renminbi, whose circulation was hitherto largely restricted to mainland China. This led to much excited commentary about the possibility that the renminbi might replace the dollar as the...
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Gavekal Research
Rosealea Yao
Mar 23rd 2011
Construction Quarterly - Q1 2011
China real estate and construction market review: March 2011
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Gavekal Research
Andrew Batson
Mar 22nd 2011
A Downbeat Chinese Consumer
China’s consumers appear to be the most unhappy they have been since the depths of the global financial crisis. The NBS’ monthly consumer confidence index is at its lowest level since early 09. And that is not an isolated reading: an independent consumer confidence survey by Hyperlink Research of Shanghai is more volatile but shows a similar trend.
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Gavekal Research
Rosealea Yao
Mar 22nd 2011
The Impact of China's Social Housing Plans
Fears are mounting that the Chinese government’s promises to supply a massive 36mn units of social housing over the next five years will trigger a collapse in housing prices. Or, alternatively, that steel and cement prices will soar on the construction roll-out, thereby decimating margins for other developers. In our view, neither fear seems justified, for several reasons.
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Gavekal Research
Nate Taplin, Conor Colwell
Mar 22nd 2011
No Nukes in China?
Japan’s nuclear emergency has caused a sharp sell-off in global nuclear energy plays on concerns the disaster in Fukushima could snuff out the recent renaissance in the sector. These fears were crystallized when China—a country with one of the world’s most ambitious nuclear programs—announced last week that it will suspend approvals for new nuclear plants until authorities complete a comprehensive safety review. In the short run this will slow...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Andrew Batson, Nate Taplin
Mar 21st 2011
DragonWeek - Nuclear Power Post Fukushima
DragonWeek - An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news
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Gavekal Research
Gavin Bowring
Mar 16th 2011
Nuclear Power in Asia
Back in 2009, we wrote a Five Corners piece titled Just How Nuclear Will Asia Get?, detailing and outlining the various plans by individual Asian countries for nuclear power, the growth of which is strongest in this region of the world —of the 62 nuclear reactors currently being constructed around the world, 40 are in Asia, with many more planned. So where does the nuclear accident in Japan leave us now? China, which alone accounts for almost 60...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Rosealea Yao, Janet Zhang
Mar 14th 2011
DragonWeek - Jan and Feb 2011 Data
DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 11th 2011
China Economic Quarterly March 2011 - Renewable Energy
China Economic Quarterly Q1 2011: Renewable Energy
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Gavekal Research
Will Freeman
Mar 10th 2011
GaveKal Daily - An Introduction to the New Chinese Five-Year Plan
At last year's NPC, Premier Wen Jiabao signaled a shift away from growth for growth's sake towards facing up to structural imbalances and improving the quality of growth. But China's economic performance in 2010 showed precious little evidence of this: the economy expanded at +10.3%, slightly above the +10% average growth rate of the past 30 years.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Andrew Batson, Tom Miller, Janet Zhang
Mar 08th 2011
DragonWeek - 12th Five Year Plan
A man, a plan, a congress: Decoding Premier Wen's policy promises
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Gavekal Research
Pierre Gave
Mar 07th 2011
GaveKal Daily - Introducing our 2Q Quarterly Strategy Chart Book: A Structural Turning Point for Markets?
We would first like to offer our readers an apology: it appears that not all clients received the email notification about the publishing of our most recent Quarterly Strategy Chart Book last Friday, due to technical problem with our server. For anyone who missed it, the 2Q Quarterly is available on our website here (at 74 pages, this is a pretty hefty edition so it may take a few minutes to download).
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Gavekal Research
François-Xavier Chauchat, Pierre Gave, Will Denyer, Warwick Simons, Will Freeman
Mar 05th 2011
QSCB - 2Q11 - A Structural Turning Point for Markets?
We would first like to offer our readers an apology: not only are we publishing our Quarterly Strategy Chart Book just 24 hours after the publication of our China Economic Quarterly (with can't miss articles on alternative energy, insurance, RMB deregulation, Mongolia, and the property slowdown), but this quarterly is long as well: a full 74 pages!
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 04th 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Clean Technology
Clean technology: Red capitalists, green energy
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 04th 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Renewables Strategy
Renewables strategy: Industrial policy scrubs up
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 04th 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Wind Power
Wind power: North-easterly gusts expected
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Nate Taplin
Mar 04th 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Solar Power
Solar power: Sunrise industry
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Mar 03rd 2011
GaveKal Daily - Behind Hong Kong's About-Face
Most modern democracies would kill for Hong Kong’s budgetary problem, that is deciding what to do with a large fiscal surplus. Spending the money on building roads, trains or civil servants is not very practical right now as it might add fuel to a domestic inflation problem which already threatens to become problematic. For the same reason, passing on the money to poor people, or cutting taxes, was not a path the government wanted to embark on....
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 03rd 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Economic Survey
CEQ economic survey (Q1 2011)
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Janet Zhang
Mar 03rd 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Export Competitiveness
Trade: The export juggernaut rolls on... and on
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Michael Komesaroff
Mar 03rd 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Metals Man: Mining The Steppe
China’s rapid economic growth has transformed Mongolia into a global mining hotspot whose currency – the tugrik – was the world’s best-performing in 2010. China already purchases 85% of Mongolia’s exports, and this proportion may grow as large new mines open. The massive Oyu Tolgoi copper (540,000 tons per annum) and gold (650,000 ounces per annum) project, which is scheduled to come online in 2013, will contribute more than 30% to national GDP...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Rosealea Yao
Mar 03rd 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Property
Property: At last, reform in sight
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 03rd 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Capital Markets
Capital markets: Poor yields all around
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Tom Miller
Mar 03rd 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Urbanization
Urbanization: Turning country bumpkins into city slickers
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Matthew Forney
Mar 03rd 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Ping An Insurance
Ping An Insurance: Supermarket sweep
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 03rd 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Renminbi Internationalization
Renminbi internationalization: Redback plays the long game
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Andrew Batson
Mar 03rd 2011
CEQ Q1 2011 - Exorbitant Privilege (book review)
Books: Fizzling influence
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Gavekal Research
Janet Zhang
Mar 02nd 2011
Macro Quarterly - 2011 Outlook
China economic outlook: March 2011
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Gavekal Research
Conor Colwell
Mar 01st 2011
Groupon’s Biz Model Precedes Groupon in China
Groupon—the ‘group buy’ firm which allows individuals to hook up online to achieve huge discounts on local goods and services—has drawn plenty of attention from its rapid two-year ascent to 50mn subscribers and a $16bn valuation. And as Forbes recently crowned Groupon “the fastest growing company ever” (0 to US$500mn in sales in 18 months), it is no surprise that Chinese clones have already started to appear. What does surprise, is the sheer...
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Mar 01st 2011
GaveKal Daily - Central Banking and Western Medicine
In the old days in China, doctors were paid once a year by their patients to keep them healthy. The doctor would come up with various potions and exercise routines to minimize the likeliness of getting sick. And when one got sick, the doctor’s attempts to redress the imbalance would be free. In the Western world, of course, medicine evolved very differently with patients only calling on their doctors once very ill. From there, the doctor would...
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Mar 01st 2011
The Politics of Chinese Inflation and FX Rates
More evidence that the Wen Jiabao Put is Off! , with Premier Wen himself saying last weekend that the official annual growth target going forward will be +7%, rather than the long-standing +8% (which was always exceeded).
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Joyce Poon, Nate Taplin
Feb 28th 2011
DragonWeek - Coal Imports Collapsing?
Are China's coal imports collapsing?
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Gavekal Research
Gavin Bowring
Feb 23rd 2011
Chinese Growth & Thai Exports
The Thai export numbers were a good reflection of the effects of Chinese economic growth on Thai trade data. China last year became Thailand's top export destination, replacing the United States, as it imported 11% of all Thai exports. The value of Thai exports to China rose to a record-breaking US$2.09 billion in December 2010, while the figure for the whole year rose to $21.5 billion However, increasing moves in Beijing to cool the...
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Feb 22nd 2011
GaveKal Daily - The Middle Eastern Turmoil from an Asian Perspective
The news from Libya is increasingly tragic, with reports of warplanes being used against civilians as the violence and bloodshed escalates. A number of recent defections (from ambassadors, air force pilots who refused to participate in attacks on civilians) point to the possibility of regime change, but no one knows how the situation will play out.
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Gavekal Research
Gavin Bowring
Feb 22nd 2011
Is Alibaba Really Fraudulent?
The resignation of the CEO and COO at Alibaba over a probe that found that fraudulent suppliers had used to cheat buyers and customers was a sudden, drastic measure, but really not that surprising either. This is not a corporate scandal in the traditional sense of the term i.e. accounting/balance sheet fraud, but rather a case of indirectly allowing unethical practices by outside parties without a serious effort to counter them.
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Gavekal Research
Will Freeman
Feb 21st 2011
GaveKal Daily - China Tightening on Many Fronts
It would seem that Beijing’s battle against consumer and asset price inflation is far from over. On the weekend policymakers ratcheted up the required reserve ratio another +50bps to 19.5% for the big banks (effective February 24), a move that comes on the heels of new administrative measures to increase food supplies and crack down on property speculators.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Rosealea Yao, Janet Zhang
Feb 21st 2011
DragonWeek - New CPI and Housing Price Index
How improved is the new measure of property prices?
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Feb 17th 2011
GaveKal Daily - Global Rebalancing, Inflation and the Value of the RMB
One crucial issue regarding the lasting power of the current economic recovery is whether growth is on a sustainable trajectory, or being gained through the same ‘old tricks’ that often prove illusory over time. In most of the previous recoveries in the past couple of decades, salvation came through an expansion in the US current account deficit—i.e., the US consumer leveraged up and went on a shopping spree. As we argued in our Quarterly...
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Gavekal Research
Will Freeman
Feb 15th 2011
Brazil’s New Mascot: the RMB Scapegoat
Last Monday in Sao Paulo, United States Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner indicated that the undervalued Renminbi was a burden for Brazil. This speech caught the markets’ attention as it is unusual for a US Treasury Secretary to comment on the exchange rate between two foreign currencies. This move was widely seen as a US attempt to enlist Brazil in the fight against China’s currency policy—a battle formerly waged by developed countries rather...
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Gavekal Research
Will Freeman
Feb 15th 2011
Chinese Food Inflation: It’s Not Just the Weather
Food prices continue to be a serious issue in China, with local vegetable prices up a jarring +64% since July. Administrative price caps instituted in November caused prices to fall temporarily, but they rebounded +37% in January to new highs. Beijing, as well as many economists, blame the recent bout of food inflation on temporary supply shocks caused by bad weather, hoarding or speculation. The implication is that recent high CPI levels are...
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Gavekal Research
Janet Zhang
Feb 15th 2011
Trade Special - The Sources of China's Export Competitiveness
The sources of China's export competitiveness
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Janet Zhang, Will Freeman
Feb 14th 2011
DragonWeek - Vegetable Prices and Inflation
Why vegetable prices are rising
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Feb 10th 2011
GaveKal Daily - The Tighter Liquidity Environment Reveals the Ugly Ducklings
Of the many insightful sayings from Warren Buffett, the best one has to be his analogy of a tighter liquidity environment with low tide at the beach. This analogy is once again being proven right, this time around in Asia: as the easy money tide withdraws, we are finding out who has been “swimming naked”. Indeed, what started before Christmas with a squeeze on Indian micro-finance providers has now evolved into discoveries or rumors of ‘...
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Feb 09th 2011
GaveKal Daily - The Implications of a Potential Top in Commodities
The most striking event on the markets over the last couple of weeks has probably been the sell-off in bonds. Taken together with the fact that OECD equities have pushed higher, it would imply that portfolios have briskly adjusted to a growth scenario (as opposed to a ‘double dip’ scenario). Yet the PBoC’s interest rate hike yesterday is a reminder that the recent shifts in asset allocations, as hectic as they seem, might not yet fully reflect...
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Feb 07th 2011
GaveKal Daily - Strong News and Stronger Markets
With snow hitting the Super Bowl in Dallas, there is little doubt that we are in the midst of a severe winter. And of course, in winter, bears hibernate. Which is just as well, for bears have little to munch on right now: economic activity is bouncing back strongly, jobs are being created (albeit at a slow pace), global trade is soaring, the great majority of companies are reporting better than expected sales, and US profit margins are making...
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Gavekal Research
Gavin Bowring
Jan 31st 2011
Taiwan's Benign Inflation?
Despite the pervasive threat of inflation throughout Asia, headline inflation has been comparatively mild in Taiwan, with the lowest CPI in the region (ex Japan of course). Taiwan CPI was up +1.3% YoY in December, down from 1.5% YoY in November. How can we explain Taiwan’s comparatively mild inflation?
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Tom Miller, Research Team
Jan 31st 2011
DragonWeek - Beijing's Slum Clearances
Beijing's slum clearances
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Warwick Simons
Jan 31st 2011
Short Australia to Hedge Chinese Risks
As everyone knows, Australia has ridden the Chinese-driven commodity boom of the past decade. But the flip-side is that the Australian economy is now more dependent on China than ever, as was amply demonstrated in 2007/08. Chinese equities peaked in November 2007, and Australian equities followed them south, although not to the same savage extent. Then commodities peaked in July 2008, causing a second, larger equity sell-off. The Aussie Dollar...
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Gavekal Research
Will Freeman
Jan 31st 2011
Shorting the RMB is Not the Best China Hedge
Despite our best efforts to disabuse some clients of the notion that China’s economy is on an inevitable path to implosion, many still see a property bubble burst, a banking crisis, or an export plunge as the next global disaster. We remain of the view that China’s economy is coming in for a soft landing (see Foreign Demand is Behind China’s GDP Surprise). But we cannot begrudge a prudent investor their concern about increasing tightening...
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Gavekal Research
Pierre Gave
Jan 25th 2011
GaveKal Daily - Asia's Greater Inflation Challenge
Anatole made an interesting point in his Five Corners' page yesterday, titled Inflation is China's Problem, Not the Fed's. Even the Chinese seem to have accepted this hard fact. Last year we heard myriad complaints about the inflationary impact of easy money from the Fed; this year Beijing seems too busy tightening to lob off such accusations. And of course, China is not the only Asian country facing the burden of rising CPI...
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Jan 24th 2011
Inflation is China’s Problem, Not the Fed’s
If there is a contrary indicator even more reliable than a cover-story in The Economist or Time Magazine, it is the mood at the World Economic Forum, which begins this Wednesday in Davos. Last year the “spirit of Davos” was focused mainly on whether the global economic recovery would be sustainable, whether central banks and governments would tighten their monetary and fiscal policies prematurely, and whether the euro would be blown up by street...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber, Research Team
Jan 24th 2011
DragonWeek - China's Economic Performance in 2010
China's economic performance in 2010
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Will Freeman
Jan 21st 2011
GaveKal Daily - Foreign Demand is Behind China's GDP Surprise
While President Hu Jintao was taking heat from the US Congress yesterday, Chinese GDP numbers were giving off heat — and the Chinese have foreign demand to thank for it. GDP grew by +10.3% in 2010, and growth in Q4 alone was +9.8% YoY, up from +9.6% in Q3 and higher than expected. Rather than the assumed soft landing, China’s economy seems to be going full-speed ahead, and inflation rather than a sharp slowdown seems the biggest risk.
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Jan 18th 2011
GaveKal Daily - More Liberalization Experiments from China
Today’s news provided more encouraging, though as yet unconfirmed, developments out of China. Most importantly, the state-run China Securities Journal reported that the full-year new loan growth target was set at RMB7.2trn, which is the same figure banking sources mentioned to Dragonomics’ staff last week. PBoC usually sets a lending target at its annual work conference held in early January. The absence of a loan quota this year was conspicuous...
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Gavekal Research
Janet Zhang
Jan 18th 2011
China Trade Review - Jan 2011
China trade review - January 2011
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Gavekal Research
Will Freeman
Jan 17th 2011
China’s Capital Controls Relaxed Again
Beijing has been loosening its capital controls in recent months. Besides the drive to increase the use of Renminbi in international transactions, China has also begun to dismantle rules controlling domestic use of foreign exchange abroad. On New Year’s Eve the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced a nationwide expansion of a recent pilot project to allow exporters to keep earnings abroad. Ten days later, the city of Wenzhou...
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Gavekal Research
Will Freeman
Jan 17th 2011
Required Reserves: Chinese Bank Control
Beijing has proven itself effective in birth-control; if only bank-control were so easy. Official loan growth in 2010 (Rmb7.9trn) came in well above the official target (Rmb7.5trn), with true total loans probably closer to Rmb10trn (see Chinese Inflation & Rate Hikes). New bank lending in the first week of January topped Rmb500bn. At that run rate, the full-month loan number would be upwards of Rmb2trn versus Rmb1.6trn and Rmb1.4trn in...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Tom Miller, Will Freeman
Jan 17th 2011
DragonWeek - Capital Controls
China loosens its grip on capital controls
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Jan 14th 2011
GaveKal Daily - China Selling JGBs
A legendary macro investor once told us: 'you have not been a macro trader until you have lost money shorting JGBs'. Indeed, with its low yields, its terrible demographics and deteriorating fiscal position, shorting Japanese bonds has for years appeared to be the best 'low risk' trade out there. An underlying reality which probably explains why 94% of outstanding JGBs are held by the Japanese themselves: given the...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team, Michael Clendenin
Jan 13th 2011
Consumer Electronics: Incremental Innovation
Innovation is already a buzzword in Chinese policy circles. But in the cutthroat world of Chinese capitalism it is not yet a practical means for getting ahead. Most Chinese technology companies will continue to play catch-up by liberally borrowing ideas from the West and tweaking them for local consumption.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Jan 10th 2011
An Easy Fed and a Strong Dollar
Whatever central bankers may think about the rights and wrongs of Charles’s arguments about the natural rate of interest (and many official economists, especially in Europe and Japan, certainly share Charles’s concerns), the reality is that the Fed is not going to start raising interest rates in the first half of 2011. This can be almost guaranteed following last week’s disappointing non-farm payroll figures. Such is the political importance of...
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Jan 10th 2011
GaveKal Daily - The Supply Shock Asia Did Not Need
With an area the size of France and Germany combined currently under water, one might think that the devastating floods wreaking havoc on Queensland would be generating a little more press than they have thus far. And that's before one even gets into the troublesome economic consequences of the record Australian rains; with a sizable proportion of Australia's coking coal export capacity now compromised, along with the region's...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Janet Zhang, Research Team
Jan 10th 2011
DragonWeek - Industrial Margins Widen
Industrial profit margin widened, inventories grew
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Jan 03rd 2011
GaveKal Daily - China's New Year Resolutions
China has a well-known penchant for announcing major policy steps during Western holidays-and this includes the recent festive season. Indeed, while we have been busy stuffing ourselves and dealing with the delights and strains of family reunions, the past ten days have seen a number of interesting moves, including:
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Dec 20th 2010
GaveKal Daily - The Divergence Between HK and Mainland Listed China Shares And What it Means
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-20.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1012201.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Janet Zhang, Will Freeman, Research Team
Dec 13th 2010
DragonWeek - Macroeconomic Data in November
DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Dec 13th 2010
GaveKal Daily - Why No Rate Hike from China?
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-13.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1012131.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Dec 13th 2010
Asia: Betting on Ever-Wider Growth Differentials
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-13.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners101213.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Joyce Poon
Dec 07th 2010
Obstacles Ahead for Metals
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-07.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1012071.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Joyce Poon, Will Freeman
Dec 07th 2010
Playing the Rise of the Chinese Consumer
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-07.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1012072.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Rosealea Yao, Research Team
Dec 06th 2010
DragonWeek Dec 6, 2010
DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Winning The Digital Demographic
China is a key battleground for control of the digital consumer: no longer just a producer, China is the world’s biggest consumer of computers, cell phones and televisions. This growing influence in technology is driven by an urbanized consumer class equal in size to the entire United States and anchored by 15-34 year-olds plugged in to global trends. As young, upwardly mobile consumers eagerly accumulate the trappings of middle-class life,...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber, Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Chinese Consumers: Dream Come True
This publication has long poured skeptical cold ink on extravagant claims that the quasi-mythical beast known as the Chinese consumer will take over the universe. For a long time China was a nation of many people, most of whom had little money to spend on anything beyond the bare necessities. But as facts change we change our minds, and the facts now clearly say that the Chinese consumer has arrived.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Tom Miller, Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Tangled Supply Chain
If England is a nation of shopkeepers, then China is a nation of wholesalers. In 2009, China’s 53,000 large wholesalers sold nearly Rmb15 trn of goods in the domestic market, worth nearly half of national GDP. Many of those sales were made in Linyi, a diesel-scented city of 1.5m people located midway between Beijing and Shanghai, and home to north China’s biggest wholesale market. Linyi’s roads roar with trucks dispatching orders from a 100...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Tom Miller, Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Sportin' Life
A stroll down the high street in Linyi, a city of 1.5m in east China’s Shandong province, reveals much about the state of interior China’s retail market. There are two basic categories of chain store on offer: low-end casualwear and sportswear. By far the dominant category is sportswear – basically sports shoes and simple garments – and both foreign and domestic brands are on offer. The foreign offering includes three Nike stores and two Adidas...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Rosealea Yao, Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Property
CEQ Q4 2010: Property
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber, Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Chinese consumers
CEQ Q4 2010: Chinese Consumers
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Fathom China
Matthew Forney, Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Not The Best Buy
Even if you’ve never set foot in China, walk into any outlet of China’s best-known retail chain and you’ll feel like you know what’s going on. The retailer is Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (Gome), and it sells home appliances ranging in size from woks to washing machines, plus the odd computer or cell phone, and lots of flat-screen TVs. You’ll see familiar products assorted into groups, many of them affixed with discount tags, and prowling...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber, Tom Miller, Rosealea Yao, Will Freeman, Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
China Economic Quarterly December 2010 - Consumer China
China Economic Quarterly Q4 2010: Consumer China
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Economic Survey
China Economic Quarterly Q4 2010: Economic Survey
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Coal
CEQ Q4 2010: Coal
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Michael Komesaroff
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Metals Man: An African Romance
The success of Chinese resource companies in tapping Africa’s bountiful natural wealth is the envy of their Western competitors, who frequently struggle to get a foothold in Africa’s alluring but frustrating mineral sector. China’s success stems from building much-needed infrastructure in exchange for privileged access to high-quality natural resources. China’s twin policies of offering no-strings investment and refusing to interfere in the...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Capital markets
CEQ Q4 2010: Capital Markets
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Tom Miller, Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Retail market
CEQ Q4 2010: Retail Market
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Consumer electronics
CEQ Q4 2010: Consumer Electronics
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Gome
CEQ Q4 2010: Gome
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Tom Miller, Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Distribution logistics
CEQ Q4 2010: Distribution Logistics
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Rosealea Yao, Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Social housing
CEQ Q4 2010: Social Housing
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Five year plan
CEQ Q4 2010: Five Year Plan
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Will Freeman, Research Team
Dec 02nd 2010
CEQ Q4 2010 - Casinos in Macau
CEQ Q4 2010: Casinos in Macau
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