E.g., 21-01-2021
E.g., 21-01-2021
We have found 3807 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - The Flight of Household Deposits

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Road to Hell is Paved with Good Intentions

    With losses on GIPSI bonds at roughly €600bn (basically marking the losses to market before the recent ECB intervention drove Italian and Spanish yields back below 6%) and if most of Europe’s sovereign debt is held by European financials (banks, insurance companies…) then it is fairly obvious that Europe is in big trouble—given that the total market cap of the S&P EMU financials sector is today a paltry €400bn.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - A Cash Crunch in China?

    Recently clients have expressed concern of a looming cash crunch in China, noting that accounts receivables for listed A-share companies seem to be rising at a very fast clip. Inventories are also building up in some sectors, a further sign of stress in the system. And other tidbits from the 1H11 results season—such as a sharp drop in sales for a leading Chinese excavator firm— have led to fears that construction may soon come to a screeching...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Don't Fear The Suburbs: Understanding China's 'Ghost Towns'

    Since legendary short-seller and hedge-fund manager Jim Chanos proclaimed that China was on “a treadmill to hell,” critics of China’s reckless investment practices have waited in vain for the bubble to burst. The latest critic to reaffirm the faith is doom-monger extraordinaire Nouriel Roubini, who warned that China’s excessive investment rate could result in a financial crisis or years of anemic, Japan-style growth. Roubini cited the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How I Deftly Putted Around the Golf Cart Bubble

    Living in Hong Kong, we frequently get questions on the city’s economic boom, what with retail sales booming at a +20% clip for months, rents seeming to put everyone but real-estate brokers out of business, and particularly the absurd prices of real estate. However, few things illustrate the current boom in Hong Kong better than the apparent bubble in golf carts.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Biden and America's Banker

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A New Guide to Chinese Data -- Book Review by Will Freeman

    Over the last year, Tom Orlik has made a name for himself as the Wall Street Journal’s Heard on the Street correspondent in China. His knack for clear, brief, and entertaining insights on a variety of China-related data makes his columns both practical and indispensable. Those two adjectives also best describe Orlik’s new book, Understanding China’s Economic Indicators. The book is perfect for investors who require a quick explanation of how to...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Challenges for HK as on Offshore RMB Centre

    In his first visit to Hong Kong, China’s likely future premier, the current Vice Premier Li Keqiang, came bearing great gifts, announcing a series of measures to upgrade the city’s status as the offshore financial centre for the internationalization of the RMB (see Daily). But we all know there is no such thing as a free lunch and Li’s goodies do have a price attached to them. As more and more RMB business is transacted in Hong Kong, the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Implicit Tightening From China

    While we are witnessing “stealth” interest rate cuts in Europe (see Daily from last week), in China it appears we are now seeing “stealth hikes” . On Friday, the PBoC sent a notice to domestic banks, asking them to widen the definition of reserves for the purpose of meeting the country’s required reserve ratio (RRR). In effect, this is actually a fairly substantial tightening measure.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Does China Need A New Stimulus Plan?

    China’s economy entered the global financial market turbulence of early August with considerable momentum. While growth in industrial value-added (IVA) slowed to +14% YoY in July from +15% in June, it is still on par with the pace of expansion in previous quarters. Exports continued to beat expectations, rising +20% YoY in July after an +18% gain in June. Meanwhile, domestic fixed-asset investment slowed only marginally, and the volume of key...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Which Are The Best Asian Safe Haven Currencies?

    As we discussed in Friday’s Daily (see More Ugly Currencies Will Not Help), with the future purchasing power of the US Dollar and the future existence of the Euro in doubt, investors are struggling to identify the currencies which will allow them to best preserve their capital Given recent price actions, the commodity currencies, the Yen, the CHF and gold all seem frothy. The recent price surge in the traditional safe-havens, combined with...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - July 2011 Data

    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 614"]

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Will the Sell-Off Trigger More Policy Cooperation?

    What is causing the selling panic? As usual, there are many possible answers, but the two mentioned most often in market reports and newspaper headlines—the US credit downgrade and the crisis in Italy—are probably overplayed. The US downgrade may inspire lurid headlines, but it has to be viewed by the markets as a non-event or a joke. Indeed, US Treasury bonds enjoyed one of their biggest ever rallies the day after S&P’s announcement, and...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Return of Accumulators

    In the midst of the rampant equity bull market before the Lehman disaster, one of the more infamous financial products here in Hong Kong was the stock market accumulators, later to be known, not very affectionately, as “I kill you laters”. These were essentially contracts obliging investors to purchase a security at regular intervals at a fixed price for the term of the contract, typically one year. Perhaps the most attractive feature is that...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Insight - When Will Energy Demand Peak?

    Will China’s energy thirst keep growing forever? At the moment, that can seem likely: in the last decade, China’s total primary energy consumption grew at an average of 8.4% a year; crude oil demand doubled from 4.3m barrels a day to 8.7m while imports quadrupled from 1.2m bbl/day to 4.8m; and annual coal consumption doubled to 3.2 bn tons. This ravenous demand for fuel and other commodities has driven up their relative prices, and led to...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Quarterly - Q2 2011

    China economic outlook: August 2011

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What We Learned from the China Train Crash

    China’s rail network has taken a prolonged beating in the press with the recent corruption scandal, speed cuts on new high-speed rail (HSR) lines, power outages on the Beijing-Shanghai HSR line, ballooning Ministry of Rail (MOR) debts, and finally a rail crash that the government has monumentally mishandled. The accident was supposedly the result of lightning striking a signaling system; we are in no position to comment on the accuracy of this...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Lessons from Other Countries' Banking Reforms

    To date China’s approach to financial reform can best be described as “feeling the stones to cross the river,” as Beijing balances the economic benefits of allowing banks to operate on more commercial terms against the stability of retaining strict control over credit. China’s government faces two distinct challenges as it makes this transition. First, the transformation will be painful for banks as they lose their generous guaranteed net...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Chinese Banks and Black Holes

    Chinese bank shares have been beaten down to valuations that appear tempting to many of our clients. This temptation is understandable, because we do not buy the doomsday scenario that exploding NPLs will cause a financial crisis. China has plenty of ability to grow out of bad debt problems (see The Magic Debt Mountain). And in the main, banks finance infrastructure and industrial projects that will likely deliver a long-run social return,...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Counting the Empty Houses

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Rising RMB Leaves Room for Further Asian Appreciation

    Michael Pettis, a professor based in China, recently made an interesting point. He said he does not care who is to blame for the “great imbalances” of the past few years: whether the problem was due to excessive consumption in the US, or excessive savings in Asia. What matters in today’s world is that the Western consumption binge is over. The US consumer is deleveraging, and this trend shows no signs of abating. How will Asia deal with this new...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Is Weakness in Tech Hardware a Broader Indicator for Global Trade?

    There was some hope, after the Global Financial Crisis, that the tech hardware cycle would become less volatile. The idea was that tech firms in countries such as Taiwan, Japan and Korea would merge or step out of the game, reducing capacity and thus gaining future profitability power. This hope quickly died, in part because money has been so cheap and abundant in the post-GFC period that capacity-expansion discipline went straight out the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    HK's Internet Economy

    We recently attended a forum discussing the release of a Google-commissioned, Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report detailing the degree of influence Hong Kong’s internet economy has on its GDP. Hong Kong’s web related activities were found to contribute HK$96b or about 5.9% of GDP--placing it on par with leading European countries (between 6% and 7% of GDP). And while this excludes indirect contributions of harder-to-quantify internet-...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Interview With Baidu

    Baidu’s copyright agreement this week with top global music companies was hailed as a landmark for the Chinese search engine, although in truth the agreement is the culmination of a process that has largely been in the bag for a few months already. The deal has certainly helped clear up Baidu’s image abroad, as has recruiting Westernized spokesmen to represent its face on the international stage. Investors in Chinese internet stocks often say...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Countdown For China's Farmers

    A lot of the worries about China’s economic prospects boil down to a simple question: just how far along is China on the road to development? Another way to ask this is: just how long is it before China runs out of the “easy” growth that comes from shifting large numbers of workers from low-productivity traditional agriculture into higher-productivity urban jobs? The answer is: at least another decade. Pessimistic observers of China’s investment...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - H2 2011 Data

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Monetary Policy: Steady as She Goes -

    Despite last week’s strong growth numbers, many investors still believe China is near the end of its tightening cycle. In turn, they say the Chinese markets are set to rally: after all, liquidity has been the main driver of A-shares in the last decade. But the end of tightening does not necessarily mean the start of loosening. In fact, we believe that tightening will now pause to allow policymakers to evaluate risks in both the domestic the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Much Less Visibility on China's Inflation

    China’s CPI continued to rise, to +6.4% in June, but since this high figure is widely expected to be near the peak for this year, many remain optimistic that tighter monetary policy will be over soon. We have long been expecting the CPI to come down in the second half of 2011, but the uncertainties around this scenario have been increasing rather than decreasing as the year goes on.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Urbanization Special - Two Views of a Housing Boom

    Urbanization and housing markets in China

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China's Agricultural Efficiency

    Thus far, China has largely succeeded in remaining self sufficient in grain despite significant land, water, know-how and technology constraints. It has done this by constantly improving yields (production per unit area) through irrigation and other technical improvements, while moving out of soybean production to focus on corn, wheat and rice. China now has by far the highest wheat yields in the world at 4.75mn tons per hectare, compared to 2....

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - China's Latest Interest Rate Hike

    Yesterday’s interest rate hike in China came after a pause for three full months—the longest stretch since China began hiking in October of last year. This comes after administrative measures failed to decisively curb inflation pressures (a State Council research center recently indicated that the June CPI number will come in at +6.2% YoY, up from +5.2% YoY in May). From an economic growth perspective, China would not have made this move if...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Jump in Foreign Exchange Loans Out of HK

    Since mid-2009 foreign currency loans have exploded in Hong Kong, particularly loans related to trade finance. This trend is primarily the result of US monetary policy: virtually-zero interest rates combined with quantitative easing. As the chart below shows, whenever the funding rate in Hong Kong (which follows US rates) is lower than the onshore rate in China, more people (especially importers) take advantage of this cheaper financing in Hong...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Local Govt Debt, Revisited

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Another Microscope on China's Local Government Debt

    Last week, the National Audit Office (NAO) added its two-cents to the heated debate over the size and risk of local government debt in China. On the whole, the information in NAO’s report suggests that local debt remains manageable despite a rapid build-up from 2009. As always, however, the devil is in the details.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    CNH Development: Speed Bumps, Not Roadblocks

    Recent misrepresentations of Beijing’s policies toward RMB internationalization have led investors to fear a significant pause or reversal of this burgeoning market. In fact, the news has been primarily positive: recent speed bumps to the development of a strong offshore Renminbi market in HK (known locally as CNH) should not be interpreted as permanent roadblocks.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What Fitch Thinks About Chinese Banks

    We recently attended a presentation by Charlene Chu, Fitch's principal China analyst, on the risks to China’s banking system, which many misperceive as a bearish call by the organization on the Chinese economy as a whole. Chu began by showing that China is the developing world's largest and fastest growing, but least capitalized, banking system. But apparently that's not as risky as it seems, because Chinese banks have next to no...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Construction Quarterly - Q2 2011

    China real estate and construction market review: June 2011

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Ulterior Motives for China's Interest in the Euro?

    One of the greatest mysteries of the 18 months since the start of the Greek crisis has been the strength of the Euro. One of the most convincing explanations for this phenomenon has been the support for the Euro provided by China and other Asian governments and sovereign wealth funds. Many traders have noted that, regardless of any bad news from Europe during the London trading day, the Euro usually rebounded in Asia after the main forex...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Bearish Signals on the Renminbi

    Amid all the many signs of caution in the markets (plunging bank shares, widening EMU sovereign spreads, record low Treasury yields, etc.), recent bearish bets on the Renminbi stand out. After all, this is the most powerful emerging economy but, unlike most of its EM peers (India, Brazil, Russia, etc.) the Renminbi is deeply undervalued on a PPP basis. For years investors have executed difficult acrobatic moves to get exposure to China’s...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Fujian Province Woos Taiwan

    China’s Fujian province has been wooing Taiwan. In its latest warm cross-strait economic embraces, Fujian recently announced it would be investing Rmb30bn this year alone to turn its Pingtan Island, just off the coast of Fuzhou and separated from Taiwan by 150km of sea, into a new special economic zone luring businesses and manufacturers in south and central Taiwan to invest (see below photo, and article). Details include:

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - What's Weighing on Chinese Banks?

    China’s banks will generate an estimated US$120bn of net profit this year; or enough to buy Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and still have some cash left over to buy a few house on Hong Kong’s Victoria Peak for the banks’ managers. However despite being the world’s most profitable on most measures, Chinese banks have on the whole not outperformed their US peers since the GFC, and have once again been feeling a little heavy (so far this month,...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Social Housing May Still Save the Day

    Over the past year, we have argued that the impact on GDP of this year’s likely slowdown in commercial housing starts would be offset by China’s ambitious social housing program. This was one of the key reasons we did not expect a “hard landing” scenario in China (see Hedges for an Unlikely Hard Landing). However, the latest figures out of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development (Mohurd) show that 3.4mn units of social housing had begun...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - May 2011 Data

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The World's Biggest Electric Vehicle Market

    It is estimated that by 2015, the US will have approximately 1mn electric vehicles (EVs) on the road and over 1mn charge points. This is bound to pack a serious long-term logistical challenge for the current US energy infrastructure, which is already beset with risks and inefficiencies (the absence of long-term plans for grid infrastructure or funding programs, the lack of a federal renewable energy standard, the general precarious fiscal...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Bridging Offshore and Onshore RMB Banking

    A journalist we know and trust recently reported in The Wall Street Journal that, based on discussions with “people familiar with the matter,” the Bank of China (BOC) has received approval to bring RMB10.5bn raised from short-term debt in Hong Kong back to China. The money will likely be invested in the onshore bond market. If this becomes a frequent practice, it would mark a significant step in the internationalization of the RMB, by bridging...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China Labor Practices Abroad

    Revenue from Chinese engineering projects in the developing world rose from US$22bn in 2006 to US$68bn in 2009, according to the Ministry of Finance. Infrastructure is key for development, and Chinese companies can deliver it quickly and cheaply. But we recently attended a talk by Juan Pablo Cardenal and Heriberto Araujo of the Spanish newspaper El Economista, who concluded that China is not be winning lots of friends with its activities in...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Short History of China's Auto Industry

    We recently attended at talk by Michael Dunne, President of Dunne & Company Ltd and a veteran analyst of China’s car industry. His presentation focused on the experience of GM in China—the subject of his recent book American Wheels, Chinese Roads. But more generally he discussed two tensions that shape China’s car industry: the tension between foreign and domestic partners in automotive joint ventures, and the tension between Beijing and...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Will Unrest in China Lead to Repression or Reform?

    Foreign media have taken notice of a series of incidents of social unrest in China over the last month. In mid-May, ethnic protest in Inner Mongolia broke out after a Han Chinese truck driver ran over a local Mongolian herder. Later that month, a disgruntled man in Fujian bombed various government offices out of frustration over the demolition of his property to make way for a highway. And in the last few days, riots in Zengcheng, a city in...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Emerging Markets, Commodities and the US Dollar

    Last week Indonesia held its policy rate at 6.75%, citing the very recent downturn in energy and food prices. But when Indonesia gets its subsidy bill at the end of this year, it will show that keeping inflationary pressures at bay is an expensive process. Indonesia has abundant resources which helps it pay the bill for distorting subsidies (including fuel subsidies, which were recently extended) while maintaining reasonably tame budget deficits...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Power Pricing Showdown

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Three Sources of Instability

    Our investing business is all about “Value”. To measure values we use currencies, though it is very hard to explain why currencies themselves have any value since in our world of fiat money the marginal cost of producing it is zero. This means that our investing business really has two sides: the easy one is trying to understand how the values are going to move vs. each other (i.e., bonds vs equities), making in the meantime the assumption that...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Does China’s Interbank Market Finally Matter?

    In developed economies, monetary policy decisions impact interbank rates directly, then cascade through the entire structure of other interest rates. In China, by contrast, the central bank directly adjusts end-user deposit and lending rates, leaving interbank rates to fulfill a not particularly interesting role as a piece of internal plumbing for the banking system. For this reason China’s interbank interest rates have long been an afterthought...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hedges for an Unlikely Hard Landing

    Now that the Chinese economy has finally showed some signs of a slowdown, we are asked at every client meeting to identify near-term risks for a hard landing. Our immediate reply is that we do not expect one. But we can imagine two risks.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China’s Growth Drivers

    Growth in any country relies on three possible drivers; either an economy adds more people (demographic growth), or its existing workers produce more (labor productivity), or the existing stock of capital is made to work harder (capital productivity).

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China’s Empty Cities & Misallocation of Capital

    According to China’s latest census (which employed 6mn people), the urban population has grown by 220mn over the past decade and now stands at 666mn out of 1.34bn. Most of that growth came from internal migration from countryside to cities. In other words, over the past decade, the equivalent of the entire populations of Russia and Germany packed up and moved somewhere else. We have thus just witnessed the largest displacement of a population...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Politics and the Acceleration of Renminbi Internationalization

    When Deng Xiaoping said “it does not matter if the cat is black or white so long as it catches the mice,” he unleashed the most exciting economic story of the modern era. The country’s impressive economic expansion has relied on increasing factors of production (land, labor and capital), tremendous improvements in labor productivity, and catch-up growth as China moves up towards the OECD’s “technological frontier.” In this hectic headlong rush...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - The Fall in Our Velocity Indicator, and China for Portfolio Diversification?

    As we have highlighted in recent Dailies, our Velocity Indicator has been heading south rather rapidly. At first glance, this might appear surprising as there are few signs of stress in the financial system today: corporate spreads are decently tight, IPOs continue to roll out, and the VIX remains low. Sure, Greek debt has now been downgraded below Montenegro’s and stands at the same ratings as Cuba’s, but even acknowledging this, the recent...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly June 2011 - Human Capital

    China Economic Quarterly Q2 2011: Human Capital

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Higher Education

    Higher education: University challenge

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Returnees

    Returnees: From brain drain to brain gain

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Technical Training

    Technical training: Engineering a growth strategy

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Human resources

    Human resources: National talent safari

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Russian Far East

    Russian Far East: The bear and the dragon

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Economic Survey

    CEQ economic survey (Q2 2011)

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Yangtze Transport

    Yantgtze River: Building a golden waterway

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Stern Hu and Resource Sector HR

    Metals Man: Expats strike back

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Property

    Property: A plague o' both your houses!

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Capital Markets

    Capital markets: Older and duller

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Migrant Workers

    Migrant workers: Second-class citizens

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Public Debt

    Public debt: The magic mountain

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Chongqing: China's New Model Worker?

    Visitors to the Chongqing pavilion at last year’s Shanghai Expo were greeted by a huge map of the municipality that lit up to reveal a flaming phoenix. Inspired by a bronze “sun bird” dug up in a Chongqing field, the phoenix was a fitting symbol for a city chosen by Beijing to lead the rebirth of China’s underdeveloped western provinces. Under the dynamic leadership of Party Secretary Bo Xilai and Mayor Huang Qifan, who have battered the mafia...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - ForEx Reserves

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - China's Naked Swimmers

    At the risk of appearing increasingly parochial, we would like to return, for the third day in a row, to the Hong Kong and Chinese market. In recent days, the price of a number of China-related mid and small caps stocks have been pulling back rather aggressively (whether listed in NY, Singapore, HK etc…). The reasons behind this ‘mini-crash’ are varied; on Wednesday, we discussed a number of macro-concerns weighing on the outlook for Chinese...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Rising Popularity of RMB Deposits in Hong Kong

    In the past few years, many investors have been willing to hold HKD despite a slightly lower interest rate to the equivalent in USD. This is in part because HK was seen as a proxy for the RMB, the idea being that the HKD would eventually be either re-pegged at a higher rate to USD, or simply pegged to the RMB itself. But why use a substitute when one can have the real thing? These days, more and more depositors in Hong Kong’s banking system are...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    No Room For Squares: China's Housing Supply And Demand

    China’s housing and construction boom has changed the lives of hundreds of millions of people and reshaped global commodity markets. Yet its basic drivers are surprisingly obscure. Our investigation into the fundamentals of housing supply and demand in China has yielded three key findings that shed some light on the future prospects of this boom. Namely:

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Equities and the Inflation Question in China

    Contrary to the story that many regional brokers were pushing a couple of months ago, China’s equities have continued their lackluster performance and are down –10% since April 18th. There are a number of reasons for this. For starters, while recent data has pointed to a slowdown in growth, there are few signs that China is ready to back away from its tightening schedule. After all, real deposit rates remain negative, and with so many bubble...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China Also Exports Productivity

    Chinese wage hikes have given rise to worries that the world’s factory, long a deflationary force for manufactured goods, will begin to export inflation instead. In fact, while Chinese export prices are increasing, competitors’ prices are rising even faster, and mainland wages remain relatively low. That suggests China will continue to be a major source of relatively cheap consumer goods for years to come. But this is only part of the story.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Unexpected Boost to China’s FX Reserves

    Louis recently identified tightening HKD liquidity as one unintended consequence of HK being the focal point of RMB internationalization (see The RMB’s Tangled Web). Here we identify another: a buildup of FX reserves in China.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - SME Credit Crunch

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China Trade Structure Review 2011

    China trade structure review: May 2011

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - China Not Ready for a Policy Reversal

    Like many other central banks, China’s PBoC has been known to apply too much medicine to a problem, leading to abrupt turns in monetary policy. And given the latest batch of data from April, which showed a jolting deceleration in construction activity and a modest slowdown in industrial value-added growth, one has to wonder whether China has overshot on tightening and whether we will see easier policies ahead? Our short answer is no. First and...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - April 2011 Data

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - A Challenging Year

    Travelling around the world and meeting investors, we have lately found few happy souls. And to some degree, this makes sense as there have lately been few reliable, bankable trends aside from the weakness in the US$ and the strength in ‘weak US$’ asset plays (oil, mining, HK physical real estate...). However, as the past couple of weeks has shown, jumping on the “weak US$” band-wagon can be fraught with risk as:

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Fathom China

    Profile: Ping An Insurance: Building A Financial Supermarket

    Ping An Insurance: Building a financial supermarket

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Rare Earth Bubble Question

    Last July we discussed possible outcomes were China to honor its threat to squeeze rare earth element (REE) exports, of which it currently controls 97% of world supply. As the monopoly of these elements holds a variety of technology-related sectors hostage (from guided missiles and wind turbines to smartphones and hybrid cars), it would not be surprising to see a healthy resurgence of investment to restart mines outside of China. Sure enough,...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China’s Crisis of Cabbage

    Just months ago, investors were concerned about rocketing vegetable prices pushing up Chinese CPI. But in the last month, vegetable prices have plummeted by more than -20%, and now the domestic media is filled with stories of surplus vegetables rotting in the fields. How quickly the tide turns….

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Blackouts and Blackmail

    China has added 445 GW in new electricity generation over the past five years—this new capacity is three times more than India has in total power capacity. And yet, if the nation’s grid operators are to be believed, China is at risk of serious power shortages this summer, when electricity use jumps as the nation collectively turns on its air conditioners.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Currency Tactics

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Making Sense of the Recent Softness in Commodities

    [LEFT]This morning as we browsed through our usual stack of newspapers, it seemed the smiling face of Glencore’s chairman was on nearly every page we turned. While there is no reason to begrudge him his US$9.6bn in paper profits from the IPO, his success must be making the market uncomfortable at some level. Bubbles are often pricked not by fundamentals (if fundamentals were in charge, there would be no bubble) but by smaller narratives—...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Blackouts and Blackmail

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    On Chinese Cuisine and N*(N-1)/2

    I recently traveled though the Mainland, visiting Guangzhou, Foschan, Wuhan, Chongking and finally Shanghai. Among the many impressions I got, two things were especially striking:

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Clean Energy Technology: Home Grown Power

    China’s drive for leadership in clean energy has both negative and positive implications. On the plus side, China is driving down the production cost and building up large-scale markets for new energy technology. On the downside – at least from the standpoint of foreign companies trying to compete with Chinese ones – it’s clear that China is subsidizing, protecting and coercing its way to a leadership position.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Macro Quarterly - Q1 2011

    China economic outlook: April 2011

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The RMB's Tangled Web

    Over the past two years, we have argued that while the market continues to focus on how much the RMB will revalue by, the more interesting question remains the accelerating pace of deregulation and the slow internationalization of the RMB. In that respect, the big RMB news of the past week is not the acceleration in the pace of appreciation (see chart below) but instead the news that Singapore may soon join Hong Kong in the (short!) list of...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Mongolian Coal Exports

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Magic Mountain: China's Public Debt

    One of the persistent concerns about China’s recent boom is that it has been financed by excessive debt, and that this debt burden will trigger a fiscal or financial crisis. The concern is heightened because the complex and opaque structure of China’s government borrowing makes it very hard to figure out the true scale of the state’s liabilities. These are certainly far larger than the official figure for central government treasury debt, which...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Q1 2011 Data

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Marshallian K & Hong Kong Property

    Back in the days before the big TMT bull market, many investors focused on central bank liquidity to get an idea of where asset markets would be heading. Basically, the idea was to follow broad monetary aggregates—if the M2 was rising, then asset markets would move up 12-18 months later, and vice-versa.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China Equities: Why We Don’t Expect A Rally Buying The Rally

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    More to Come for China Tightening

    High inflation and continued rapid GDP growth in the first quarter have cleared the way for further monetary tightening in China, through interest rate hikes, increases in reserve requirements (RRR) and continued currency appreciation. Premier Wen Jiabao himself said as much before the 1Q11 data was even published late last week, telling the State Council that the government needs to “continue to implement a stable monetary policy and not...

    0
Show me: results