Gavekal Research

Vincent Tsui, Udith Sikand, Tom Miller, Arthur Kroeber

Oct 11th 2019

Vincent outlined EM Asia's "great moderation", as inflation is diverging from other emerging markets, creating opportunities in bonds. Udith argued that Indian growth may be bottoming out but a bad banking picture means that equities may have more downside. Tom addressed the remaking of Asian supply chains in light of the US-China trade war.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Tom Miller

Oct 08th 2019

China is still signing up more countries for its Belt and Road Initiative, but money for Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy is getting tighter. Growth in China’s overseas lending has ground to a halt, and overseas construction projects are declining. In this piece, Tom explains why a slimmer Belt and Road has become an economic necessity.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Thomas Gatley

Oct 03rd 2019

In the latest edition of his annual chartbook, Thomas outlines the fundamentals of China’s corporate sector. The latest downcycle in sales and profits was less severe than previous episodes, but private firms are still suffering from financial strains. The anemic bounce in credit growth points to little recovery in profits or capex in 2020.

Gavekal Research

Vincent Tsui, Udith Sikand

Oct 02nd 2019

Asian inflation has decoupled from other emerging market regions and may be settling at a new permanently lower level. At the same time, lower Asian inflation also reflects weak capital spending and slower economic growth due to the global trade downturn. The best way to play this new low-inflation, low-growth era is with regional bonds.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Andrew Batson

Sep 26th 2019

After a rocky few months of trade troubles, disappointing data and hawkish policy, China has shifted back to a more decisive focus on growth-supporting measures. This move should help support markets and the economy through end-2019. But as Andrew explains in this chartbook, the boost from this cautious “selective easing” is still limited.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Rosealea Yao

Sep 24th 2019

China’s government has launched a new program to renovate older residential compounds, which some are touting as a massive new investment stimulus. As Rosealea explains in this piece, such hopes are misplaced. But the new spending will help cushion the impact of the cutbacks of the subsidies delivered through the slum redevelopment program.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Andrew Batson

Sep 19th 2019

Markets are now primed for China’s central bank to lower the policy rate in the new loan-pricing system it unveiled in August. In this piece, Andrew explains how these rate cuts will work, why they are different from the rate cuts of the past, and why these moves will not mean any change in the central bank’s current strategy of “selective easing.”

Gavekal Research

Tom Miller

Sep 18th 2019

Right now, investors concerned about energy prices are focused on the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s processing facilities. But a possible conflict in the Gulf will not be the only emergent factor likely to affect oil prices over the coming months. New rules for cleaner shipping fuels, known as “IMO 2020,” also have the potential to roil global petroleum markets.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Dan Wang

Sep 12th 2019

The Trump administration has shown the world that it is willing and able to inflict severe pain on China’s top technology firms. But can the US really squeeze China hard enough to cut it off from global R&D, or stop all advances by Chinese companies? In this piece, Dan argues that the US can slow China’s technological progress—but not stop it.