E.g., 19-02-2020
E.g., 19-02-2020
We have found 3521 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Age Of Range Trading

    It is a Gavekal adage that 10-year treasury yields, crude oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate are “master prices” that have an outsized impact on economic activity and financial markets. Yet as Louis notes, in recent years, these three prices have shown little by way of a structural trend. In this piece, he seeks to understand the meaning from this range-trading phenomenon.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trump’s Unreal Deal With China

    The US-China trade cease-fire shows that President Trump needs a quick deal: facing a soft economy and likely impeachment, he wants to bank a win as soon as possible. The two sides are moving toward a deal in November, but that will not change China's economic model or end US efforts to constrain China's technological rise.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call October 2019

    Vincent outlined EM Asia's "great moderation", as inflation is diverging from other emerging markets, creating opportunities in bonds. Udith argued that Indian growth may be bottoming out but a bad banking picture means that equities may have more downside. Tom addressed the remaking of Asian supply chains in light of the US-China trade war.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Banks Still At Risk

    The first wave of Chinese bank failures will not be the last. Over the summer, three smaller Chinese banks had to receive official assistance to continue operating. The problems that brought down those banks were not isolated issues, and there are other smaller banks still at risk. This report identifies the most troubled institutions.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Belt And Road Slims Down

    China is still signing up more countries for its Belt and Road Initiative, but money for Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy is getting tighter. Growth in China’s overseas lending has ground to a halt, and overseas construction projects are declining. In this piece, Tom explains why a slimmer Belt and Road has become an economic necessity.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong’s Core Problem

    The Hong Kong government’s stated aim is to drive a wedge between radical protesters who are resigned to jail or worse, and a less committed group that it thinks will be cowed by increased penalties. Initial evidence suggests the strategy is a busted flush. Sunday saw large-scale illegal marches by mask-clad demonstrators before the now predictable violence unfolded.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The China Inc. Annual Report 2019

    In the latest edition of his annual chartbook, Thomas outlines the fundamentals of China’s corporate sector. The latest downcycle in sales and profits was less severe than previous episodes, but private firms are still suffering from financial strains. The anemic bounce in credit growth points to little recovery in profits or capex in 2020.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Greater Good Versus Individual Liberty

    Yesterday Hong Kong's streets were again the stage for violent clashes between protesters and police. At the heart of the conflict is a showdown between the shared identity in Hong Kong shaped by the common law system inherited by the British and the common narrative in China emphasizing the "greater good" over individual liberties.

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: An Asian Repricing

    Asian inflation has decoupled from other emerging market regions and may be settling at a new permanently lower level. At the same time, lower Asian inflation also reflects weak capital spending and slower economic growth due to the global trade downturn. The best way to play this new low-inflation, low-growth era is with regional bonds.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    US-China Impressionism

    It is sometimes said that getting a clear view of Chinese policy is impossible; the best you can hope for is an “impressionist” picture of what broadly is going on. Increasingly it looks as if this impressionism is catching. As if understanding China wasn’t hard enough, lately figuring out US policy towards Beijing has become a lot more complicated.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: The Return Of Selective Easing

    After a rocky few months of trade troubles, disappointing data and hawkish policy, China has shifted back to a more decisive focus on growth-supporting measures. This move should help support markets and the economy through end-2019. But as Andrew explains in this chartbook, the boost from this cautious “selective easing” is still limited.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: Where Next Hong Kong?

    Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam today begins a process of civic engagement aimed at bridging the divide between an unpopular government and a diffuse movement that has engaged in 17 weeks of violent protest. Simon discusses whether economic goodies can buy off dissent and assesses the chances of a compromise political settlement.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    This Old House

    China’s government has launched a new program to renovate older residential compounds, which some are touting as a massive new investment stimulus. As Rosealea explains in this piece, such hopes are misplaced. But the new spending will help cushion the impact of the cutbacks of the subsidies delivered through the slum redevelopment program.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: What Next In The Tech War

    Washington views China as a strategic competitor, and the White House has promised a “whole of government” effort to constrain China’s development of key advanced technologies. Dan examines the three ways in which the US is making life difficult for Chinese tech companies, and explores other weapons the US could deploy should the tech war escalate.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Waiting For Rate Cuts

    Markets are now primed for China’s central bank to lower the policy rate in the new loan-pricing system it unveiled in August. In this piece, Andrew explains how these rate cuts will work, why they are different from the rate cuts of the past, and why these moves will not mean any change in the central bank’s current strategy of “selective easing.”

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Industrial Disease (II)

    Last week, Charles examined the decline of the US industrial sector, introducing his “industrial Wicksellian spread” as an indicator of environmental conditions for industry. Now he looks at the probable causes of industrial deterioration, explains why neither monetary nor fiscal policy can help, and uses his toolkit to draw some important conclusions for portfolio investors.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Cost Of Cleaner Shipping

    Right now, investors concerned about energy prices are focused on the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s processing facilities. But a possible conflict in the Gulf will not be the only emergent factor likely to affect oil prices over the coming months. New rules for cleaner shipping fuels, known as “IMO 2020,” also have the potential to roil global petroleum markets.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    After The Summer Of Discontent

    The poor economic indicators for August make it obvious why China’s government got ahead of the data release and signal renewed support for growth in early September. That means more incremental policy measures are coming, which will help sentiment. And the drag on growth from the auto sector should also reverse toward the end of 2019.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Putting The Squeeze On Tech

    The Trump administration has shown the world that it is willing and able to inflict severe pain on China’s top technology firms. But can the US really squeeze China hard enough to cut it off from global R&D, or stop all advances by Chinese companies? In this piece, Dan argues that the US can slow China’s technological progress—but not stop it.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Three Waves Of Capitalism

    Three great forces drive capitalism and markets: the Schumpeterian, the Ricardian, and the Malthusian. Usually only one dominates at any one time. The flood of capital into tech indicates investors believe that Schumpeterian creative destruction will continue to drive returns over the coming years. But Louis argues that a new wave may be about to take over.

    15
Show me: results