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E.g., 28-02-2021
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Looming Correction For Iron Ore

    Iron ore prices hit an eight year high in early December in response to a tight steel market. Rosealea writes that this uptick in steel demand, likely due to China’s strong steel-intensive export figures, is unsustainable and should subside in the new year—resulting in a correction for iron ore prices in the coming months.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Boom Of 2021

    As he gazes into next year, Charles has reviewed some of his most trusted indicators and found that the US is moving towards an inflationary boom that should mean stronger growth, rising inflation and higher bond yields. If the Federal Reserve acts to crimp this adjustment in the price of money, he warns that the US dollar could tank.

    10
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Road To Policy Normalization

    China’s economy is almost back to normal after Covid-19, and that means economic policy will also normalize: the question is not whether, but how. In this piece, Wei argues that the most likely policy settings for 2021 will be somewhat tighter fiscal policy and a deceleration in total credit growth, but no increase in policy interest rates.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Lure Of Korea In A Rotation

    Hopes for a return to normality as Covid vaccines get rolled out have helped fuel a global rotation from growth to value equities, and from previous “Covid winners” to “Covid losers”. Due to its better pandemic management, clear policy headroom and exposure to the electronics sector, Asia has generally been a Covid winner. Hence, Udith Sikand and myself have argued that beaten-up non-Asian markets are the way to play this rotation (see Asia’s...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Reluctant Executioner

    MSCI announced on Tuesday the removal of 10 Chinese securities from its indexes in response to a US executive order. In this Quick Take, Thomas explains why MSCI’s narrow interpretation of the order leads to risk of more Chinese securities being added to the list, and how the decision adds to existing headwinds for Chinese equities.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Credit Has Peaked, Growth Has Not

    China’s economic momentum continued to accelerate in November despite an October peak in credit growth, with exports and manufacturing investment taking the lead while more policy-dependent sectors plateaued. In this piece, the Dragonomics team explains why China is likely to maintain its strong economic growth through 1Q21.

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    Gavekal Research

    The 10 Important Changes Of The Past Year

    Two years ago, 10-year treasury yields were falling (and trading below their 200-day moving average), oil prices were falling (and also below trend) and the US dollar was rising (and trading above its trend level). Today, the situation has reversed for all of these anchor prices in the global system. This profound change can be explained with reference to 10 tectonic shifts in the global economy.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Re-Centralization Of Finance

    China’s banking system has been steadily decentralizing for thirty years, with smaller and local banks gaining market share from the large, centrally controlled state banks. In this piece, Xiaoxi and Andrew show that this long-term trend has now come to a halt, and argue that the banking system will start to re-centralize in coming years.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Social Credit And Digital Governance

    China’s social credit system is widely misunderstood as a totalitarian tool. The reality is that it is a relatively low-tech part of a sophisticated Communist Party strategy to use digital means to deliver both better governance and social control. In this 22-page DeepChina report, Rogier Creemers explains the truth behind the social credit myths.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: China And The World Economy In 2021

    Arthur Kroeber and Dan Wang sketched out the likely course of the US-China rivalry under the new Biden administration; He Wei and Thomas Gatley analyzed key developments in China's economy and markets, and Gavekal CEO Louis Gave presented his views on the forces shaping global markets.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A New Reality For Commercial Property

    Vacancy rates for office and retail space are picking up sharply this year despite a broad return to normality in China. In this report, Rosealea argues that Covid-19 accelerated an ongoing shift towards at-home work and entertainment. Developers must now grapple with the new reality that demand is unlikely to ever return to pre-Covid levels.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Three Key Prices: The US Dollar

    It is an axiom of Gavekal’s research that the starting point for looking at the global macro landscape is that three prices matter above all others: the 10-year US treasury yield, the price of oil, and the US dollar exchange rate. In the third of a three-part series, Louis examines the US dollar.

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    Gavekal Research

    Sell A-Shares Into Strength

    Over the last month, onshore Chinese equities have got swept up in the global rally. The CSI 300 gained 7% in November, surpassing July’s peak to set a new high for the year this week. And the broader Shanghai index is on the cusp of following. However, this is a rally running on fumes.

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, December 2020

    The US equity market is seeing a switch from the winners of the pandemic like technology and online retail, to the beaten-up losers such as travel plays. At the same time, hopes for a strong economic recovery in 2021 are juicing up value stocks. Similar dynamics are being seen in other major markets. Our team of analysts discussed what happens next, and what’s in store in 2021.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Access To Global Capital Has Peaked

    After years of inflows via IPOs and foreign portfolio investment, the US is now moving to deny Chinese firms access to global capital. As a result, Thomas explains that the firms will instead have to rely on domestic markets for equity fundraising, which could cause a liquidity drag in onshore and Hong Kong equities.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Eroding The Implicit Guarantee

    China’s financial regulators recently stepped in to calm a corporate bond market roiled by the unexpected default of a local state-owned enterprise. In this report, Wei argues that this reassurance does not translate to a reassertion of the implicit sovereign guarantee for local SOE debts; in fact, more local SOE defaults look likely for 2021.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Fate Of Chinese Listings In The US

    Today, there are 365 Chinese companies listed on US markets. A handful of these have dual listings in Hong Kong, but for most, the US is their sole listing. Together, these 365 companies account for US$1.92trn of market capitalization. This increasingly looks like an anomaly. Why should Chinese companies choose to raise capital on Wall Street when they can tap the capital market in Hong Kong?

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Huawei's Slow Strangulation

    The US government’s August decision to deny Huawei access to every advanced chip in the world was a death sentence for the firm, but its execution has not been swift. In this report, Dan outlines the uneven effects of the decision on Huawei’s different business lines and explains why any solution to the firm’s troubles will have to be political.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Importance Of The Renminbi

    In days long gone by, the yen’s exchange rate affected asset prices around the world. Today, it is not the yen that investors need to watch, but the renminbi. And in the last few months the renminbi has been strengthening, with important implications for everything from global bond yields, through energy prices, to the relative performance of US growth and value stocks.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Hong Kong Under The National Security Law

    Hong Kong has spent five months living under a tough national security law imposed on it from Beijing. The direct impact has been a sharp curtailment of opposition political activity that has sparked sanctions from the United States. Now, China has plans for more changes to Hong Kong's legal system, with a requirement for judges to be patriots. In yesterday’s webinar, Vincent Tsui, Dan Wang, Tom Holland and Simon Pritchard discussed the...

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