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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - The Cost Of The Credit Crunch

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Small Is Not So Beautiful

    There is a growing disconnect in China’s housing market. Sales have soared in big cities since the final quarter of 2012, but construction growth remains anemic. Developers for now remain reluctant to aggressively expand new construction, preferring instead to sell down their existing inventory. This behavior is consistent with our analysis that the housing market, after more than a decade of undersupply, swung into oversupply in 2012. Around...

    8
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - From Oversupply To Undersupply

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly June 2013 - Southeast Asia

    Deng Xiaoping used to say that the foreign policy breakthrough he was most proud of was the full normalization of China’s relations with the countries in Southeast Asia. In the 1980s, Deng’s policies helped China transform itself from a deadly enemy of its southern neighbors to a potential partner. Over the next two decades, China nurtured relationships in its backyard. Yet over the past few years many of these efforts have gone to waste: from...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2013 - Property

    Something strange is going on in China’s property market. Sales have soared in big citiessince the final quarter of 2012, but construction growth remains anemic (see “Economicsurvey” on p3). The weak numbers suggest that we can no longer rely on sales todrive construction starts, and also point to a structural shift towards slowingdemand. This leaves one central question: if demand remains healthy in China’s70 largest cities, as the official...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - A Turn To The Supply Side

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Finding Investment's Future

    China’s investment growth is slowing, but that slowdown is not equally distributed. The huge investment surge of the past decade was primarily driven by a domestic housing boom, which in turn demanded big investment in industrial capacity to supply construction materials. But the volume of property construction will see at best very modest growth in coming years, as the growth in domestic housing supply is reaching a plateau (see Reaching The...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Weaker For Longer

    China’s economic indicators for April confirmed that the weak recovery in Q1, and especially March, was not simply a blip. While growth in industrial value-added and other manufacturing indicators did tick up somewhat, the improvement was quite modest given the extremely low base set by the slowdown in April 2012. Credit continues to be very loose and housing sales are still doing very well, but these traditional leading indicators are taking...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Many More Times

    China’s growth has disappointed, again. GDP rose just 7.7% YoY in Q1, slowing from the 7.9% in Q4; in sequential terms, the slowdown was even worse, to an annualized 6.6% QoQ from 8.2%. The weak growth figure caught most observers, including ourselves, off guard, as a cyclical recovery—albeit a modest one—looked clearly underway as of the end of 2012. And with this unexpected soft patch in growth coming so soon after the last soft patch in 2Q12...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - The Bumpy Road To Rebalancing

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - What Goes Around, Comes Around

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Cutting Red Tape

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    Gavekal Research

    Crazy, But Not That Crazy

    Every so often we get worried calls from readers who have just seen a press report on “ghost cities” and wonder whether we have changed our minds and now agree that the Chinese property bubble is about to burst. The latest spate of calls followed a very scary piece by the US television program 60 Minutes featuring footage of miles upon miles of empty apartment blocks and shopping malls in Zhengzhou, Tianjin and Ordos.

    10
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Walking The Tightrope

    Is China’s growth too weak or too strong? Commentary on the confusing economic data for the first two months of 2013 has been understandably divided. Deciphering the signals is not helped by the usual distortions in the data from the Chinese New Year holiday. On the minus side, the key indicator of industrial value-added slowed unexpectedly, and retail sales were disappointing, an apparent casualty of Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign. On...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly March 2013 - The Reform Agenda

    Next week, China’s National People’s Congress will formally anoint the country’s new leaders. President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang—who are expected to remain in power for the next decade—know that the years of easy, investment-driven growth are over. Under their leadership, China must find a healthier development model that puts greater reliance on household consumption, uses capital more efficiently, and provides more citizens with a...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2013 - Land policy and development: How Asia Works

    Most people assume the world will continue to speed up. Yet the chances of seeing another developmental story like China’s are rather low. The era of transitions from poverty to wealth in only two generations, or 50 years, is probably over. The reason is that China—like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan before it, and Vietnam along with it—built its extraordinary developmental performance on land reform that enabled a transition to high-yield...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2013 - Property: Premier Li's new deal

    When new leaders come to power, they like to put their immediate stamp on policy. China’s incoming premier, Li Keqiang, is no different. The only trouble is that Li’s new gospel of growth—urbanization—sounds very much like the old one. More urbanization, after all, will require lots of new housing and city infrastructure. But relying on investment to drive growth is hardly likely to elicit cries of “Eureka!”

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Leaning Against The Wind

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - More Bark Than Bite

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Macro Chartbook Feb 2013

    A clear cyclical recovery took hold at the end of 2012, confirmed by multiple indicators.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    When To Worry About Housing Prices

    Housing prices in three-quarters of major Chinese cities are now rising again. Prices paid at land auctions are setting new records. Nationwide housing sales growth, at 11% YoY in Q4, is in the double digits. In short, China’s housing market seems to have returned overnight to the red-hot boom of 2009-10. Since much of China’s broader economic rebound is due to renewed strength in housing, the sustainability of this latest property boom will do...

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - More Than A Trickle, Less Than A Flood

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Consolidating The Recovery

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Industry Profits From Property's Recovery

    China’s economic data in November showed an increasingly firm domestic recovery. Heavy industry, particularly metals and other construction materials, led the sharp slowdown earlier this year, and is now leading the rebound. Indicators tied to this sector—notably electricity output—that have underperformed the rest of the economy are now catching back up. Importantly, the industrial profit cycle has also turned, and profits are likely to show...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly December 2012 - State-owned Enterprises

    One of the most persistent claims made about China’s economy is that an embattled private sector is getting squeezed out by increasingly powerful state-owned enterprises. This claim does not stand up to the evidence: private companies have increased their share of virtually every economic indicator, from exports to employment to bank credit. But that does not mean all is well in corporate China. Though large in aggregate, private firms remain...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2012 - Property: Nearing The Peak

    China’s housing boom reached new heights in 2010-11, on the back of a huge monetary stimulus and a new low-income housing program. The fading of this construction boom is clearly a big part of the sharp slowdown in China’s growth in 2012. But there remains a huge backlog of housing under construction that will hit the market over the next few years. Does this mean there will be a supply glut?

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - This Land Is Your Land

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    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Biggest Migration In Human History

    The journey from farm to city is the story of China’s transformation from a poor and backward country to a global economic superpower. By 2030, when China’s urban population is projected to swell to 1 billion, its cities will be home to one in every eight people on earth. How China’s urban billion live will shape the future of the world.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Reaching The Housing Peak

    China’s housing boom reached new heights in 2010-11, on the back of a huge monetary stimulus and a new low-income housing program. The fading of this construction boom is clearly a big part of the sharp slowdown in China’s growth in 2012. But there remains a huge backlog of housing under construction that will hit the market over the next few years. Assessing the scale of this coming wave of housing supply is difficult because of inconsistent...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Xi Rides The Turning Cycle

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Yet MOR debt

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Macro Chartbook Nov 2012 - Finding The Bottom

    The worst of the economic slowdown is over, as most growth indicators have steadied.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Profits Firm, Wages Steady

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Slower And Steadier All Around

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Storm Is Passing Over

    Earlier this week Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao previewed the Q3 economic data, telling his audience that “currently there are some positive changes in the economy, and growth is stabilizing.” Lo and behold, the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed exactly that: while headline GDP growth continued to slow in Q3, many indicators for September steadied or improved slightly. There are not yet convincing signs that a...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    RMB: More Volatility, Less Direction

    Whither the renminbi? Movements in China’s currency have become more difficult to understand lately. For much of the first half of this year the unit depreciated, reversing a trend established in 2005 of annual 5% appreciation against the US dollar. But in the last couple of months it has trended up sharply, reaching a 19-year high of 6.25 against the dollar.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - The Best Laid Plans

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Promises, Promises

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Welcome To The Chinese Business Cycle

    Over the last few years, China has not had business cycles: it has had policy cycles. Economic ups and downs were driven almost entirely by high-level policy, and understanding which way the government wanted the economy to go was, more or less, all you needed to know. Most observers, including ourselves, thus expected the government’s switch to pro-growth policies in October 2011 to have steadied the economy by now. This has not happened,...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2012 - Property: Encircling the cities from the countryside

    Drive around the edge of any large Chinese city and you will see block after block of urban-style flats. Many of these are built on state-owned urban construction land and are recorded in urban construction data. But an unknown number are built on rural construction land—officially owned by village collectives, not the state—and are not counted as part of the urban housing market. Many of these flats are occupied by rural hukou holders who have...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly September 2012 - China In Africa

    China’s growing influence in Africa has attracted many negative headlines. Critics fault Chinese policy banks for offering cheap loans to unpalatable governments in return for natural resources, and accuse state-owned enterprises of “neo-colonial” behavior across the continent. The truth is far more nuanced. Many African countries—and not only those ruled by vicious dictators or corrupt governments—welcome Chinese investment. And China’s role in...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Encircling The Cities From The Countryside

    Drive around the rural fringe of any large Chinese city and you will see block after block of apartment buildings. Many of these are built on state-owned urban construction land and are recorded in urban construction data. But an unknown number are built on rural construction land—officially owned by village collectives, not the state—and are not counted as part of the urban housing market. Much of this housing is occupied by rural hukou holders...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Stimulus, Real And Imagined

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    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Property: A Volume Game

    Hong Kong property developers have outperformed the Hang Seng Index in the two months since CY Leung became chief executive. This runs counter to the pre-election perception that Mr Leung was an outsider in Hong Kong’s business-friendly political circles who would threaten the local property cartel and flood the market with new (more affordable) supply (see Property & Populism In Hong Kong). The fact that top executives of Sun Hung Kai...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Five Corners—Asia

    For years it was fashionable to bemoan the scourge of “hot money” inflows into China. Now, with China’s foreign exchange reserves registering falls in three of the last four months, it is fashionable to talk about “hot money” flowing out of China. Another bit of evidence for the coming collapse of China? Hardly.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Bouncing Along The Bottom

    Despite a visible and sustained recovery in the property sector, China’s economy continued to slow in July. It is not collapsing, but neither is it very vigorous, and this picture is unlikely to change soon. A structural slowdown, whose conditions were evident in 2008 but whose onset was delayed by two years of massive monetary stimulus after the global financial crisis, is now firmly in train. Government policy remains mildly stimulative—with...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Property: Steady As She Goes

    China’s property sector is clearly on the mend, but the recovery is slow and steady rather than meteoric. Policy makers probably welcome the modest rebound in transactions and prices, which should lead an uptick in broader economic growth later this year. But they remain vigilant about containing sharp rises in house prices, which could spark social discontent. So Beijing’s property policy will almost certainly stay on its present course, with...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Macro Chartbook Aug 2012 - The Art Of Easing

    Our quarterly chartbook reviews and interprets China’s major economic indicators in convenient graphical form. Main points in the latest edition include:

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Houses and Jobs

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    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Better Things Are On The Way

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    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Life Returns To China's Property Sector

    China’s recent economic numbers have been broadly disappointing—with the notable and very important exception of property. In May listed developers reported month-on-month sales increases ranging from 19% to 44%; even year-on-year figures rose as high as 20% to 30%. The momentum has continued in June, with many developers now having achieved 50% of their respective sales targets by mid-year. Weekly sales volume in the top 40 cities rebounded...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Housing & Construction Review 2012

    Confused by China’s housing market? You are not alone. But fear not, our regular overview of housing and construction covers the fundamentals needed to understand the market in a convenient visual form. How much does real estate matter for China’s economic growth? Does urbanization really drive the housing market? Who buys housing in China, and how can they afford it? What drives the construction cycle? How does government policy affect the...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Power Prices And Bank Margins

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Not As Bad As We Thought

    May’s economic data was better than we expected, particularly as PBC’s pre-emptive interest rate cut last Thursday appeared to signal increased official concern about the pace of growth (see China Rate Cut Signals Reform). Growth in all the major activity indicators, including industrial value added, fixed asset investment and retail sales, picked up slightly in May compared with April, while exports and imports accelerated more. Meanwhile,...

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Property

    For the past two years, the broad of aim of China’s restrictive property poli­cies has been simple—to make housing more affordable. The government’s approach has been to squeeze demand at the top of the market and boost supply at the bottom. Have these measures succeeded? For the vast major­ity of native urbanites, the answer is yes. In 2010, the price-to-income ratio in big cities exceeded nine; this year it should fall to near seven. The major...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Weak Currency, Weak Growth

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Great Affordability Question

    For the past two years, the broad aim of China’s restrictive property policies has been simple: to make housing more affordable. The government’s approach has been to squeeze demand at the top of the market and boost supply at the bottom. Have these measures been successful? For the vast majority of native urbanites, the answer is yes. In 2010, the price-to-income ratio in big cities exceeded 9; this year it should fall to near 7. The major...

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Wanted: Private Sector Investment

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - First Steps To More Stimulus

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Spurs For A Reluctant Horse

    All major indicators of China’s economy slowed further in April, dashing hopes that the signs of improvement in March meant an early recovery from the current downturn. The relatively weak first quarter now looks likely to be followed by a weak second quarter, though we expect more counter-cyclical policy moves to steady growth by the second half of 2012.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Wages Just Keep On Rising

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Public Sector Reform And Housing Prices

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - RMB Trading Band And Commodity Demand

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Soft Landing In Sight

    China’s headline GDP growth of 8.1% YoY in the first quarter of 2012, down from 8.9% in the last quarter of 2011, was lower than market forecasts, though close to our own more modest expectations. In QoQ terms, annualized real growth probably slowed to 6-7% in the first quarter from around 9% in the final two quarters of 2011. On either metric, this was China’s weakest GDP growth since the depths of the global financial crisis in late 2008-early...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Developer Results Mask Risks

    Considering the negativity surrounding the Chinese property sector, listed developers have just posted a surprisingly strong set of results. Sales are up, profits are strong (both in RMB and margin terms) and balance sheets remain solid. The decent numbers partly reflect most transactions having been negotiated 1-2 years ago under far easier market conditions. However, such a benign environment is unlikely to be quickly reproduced given the...

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Inflation, Growth Fears And Capital Flows

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    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Regime Change Threat For HK Developers

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    Gavekal Research

    Property And Populism In Hong Kong

    It is very rare that the US has a presidential election without at least one candidate calling for a “flat tax” system, which has worked so successfully in places like Hong Kong. Now ironically, Hong Kong has itself just held an election for the highest office in its land, and the question is whether the winner and new Chief Executive, CY Leung, will set in motion policy changes that ultimately undermine the city’s ability to operate on a flat-...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Harsh Words For Housing

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Path To Reform

    The almost unimaginable economic transformation of China in the past 30 years relied less on a grand plan than on a pragmatic willingness to experiment in the pursuit of broad goals. Many reforms progressed not because of the brilliance of leaders but because an original reform hit a bottleneck, which another reform was required to break. This process is known in China as “crossing the river by feeling the stones.”

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    Gavekal Research

    Surviving China's Slowdown

    China has clearly entered into a substantial economic slowdown: both the private property market and government infrastructure investment are finally correcting after two boom years. Yet the economy has not collapsed, largely thanks to still robust consumer spending and manufacturing investment. Official GDP growth was 8.9% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2011, barely lower than the 9.1% in the third quarter. The economy slowed more...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2012 - Property

    With millions of units sitting vacant, developers cutting pricesto lure buyers and sales volumes shrinking, it is easy to conclude that Chinafaces a collapse in construction. In fact, China can easily sustain very highlevels of housing construction for another 15-20 years. New supply is required to reduce the existing housing shortage, accommodate future urban population growthand replace dilapidated stock. The more rele*vant question for...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly March 2012 - China and the World

    (full version)

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - A Mismatch In Growth Targets

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What Next For China's Housing Market

    With millions of units sitting vacant, developers cutting prices to lure buyers and sales volumes shrinking, it is easy to conclude that China faces a collapse in construction. In fact, China can easily sustain very high levels of housing construction for another 15-20 years. Much new supply is required to reduce the existing housing shortage, accommodate future urban population growth and replace dilapidated stock. The more relevant question...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Provinces Hopeful On Growth As Property Market Steadies

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    Gavekal Research

    The Kindling And The Fire

    Inflation in the key Asian city-states of Hong Kong and Singapore is dangerously resilient: Hong Kong’s CPI reading jumped to 6.1% in January, and Singapore’s CPI has remained well above 5% for several months. This comes as both cities have spent several years building the monetary and fiscal equivalent of a pile of kindling. Recently, the Fed and ECB have been playing with matches. We should not be surprised that the kindling has started to...

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Monetary Easing Counters Pressure From Bank Deposits

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Problem Of Chinese Land Reform

    In December, war erupted on the streets of Wukan, a fishing village in Guangdong province. The spark was the death in police custody of a village representative who was negotiating with local authorities for compensation for lost farmland. Local farmers chased all officials and police out of the village, blockaded roads, and armed themselves with steel-tipped bamboo spears. In what foreign reporters dubbed the “Siege of Wukan,” the local...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Battle Over Land Policy In China

    As Chinese property prices fall, tensions are rising between cash-strapped local governments that want to pump up the market and a central government determined to preserve social stability by keeping a lid on housing costs. So far Beijing is winning. But it cannot ignore for much longer the local-government budget debacle that its housing policy risks creating.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Battle Over Land Policy in China

    As Chinese property prices fall, tensions are rising between cash-strapped local governments that want to pump up the market and a central government determined to preserve social stability by keeping a lid on housing costs. So far Beijing is winning. But it cannot ignore for much longer the local-government budget debacle that its housing policy risks creating.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Company Visit to Shenzhen International

    One way to play the rising cost of manufacturing in China would be to effectively short the low value-added manufacturers in the richer coastal areas, and go long the real estate firms that will have the first crack at redeveloping vacated factories into office buildings, malls or residences. This is because the lower value-added manufacturers – the ones that make running shoes, clothes, tools, simple chemicals and electronics, etc – are in many...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - More Infrastructure Projects On The Way

    [INDENT=2]

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    Gavekal Research

    Value in Chinese Property Developer Bonds

    After two years of clampdown, a -6% fall (-15% in big cities) in real estate prices from the peak and a significant slowdown in transactions growth last year, Chinese property developers are probably thinking it is time the government gave them a break. However Li Keqiang, who is likely to replace Wen Jiabao as the next Premier, has a vital interest in staying firm with the new housing policy. China’s campaign to provide unprecedented quantities...

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    Daily - China's Property Market and the Prophets of Doom

    With the prophets of doom once again circling around China's "property bubble," predicting a collapse in house prices and subsequent economic Armageddon, Draganomics took special care to perform an exhaustive review of the data in its latest China Real Estate and Construction Market Review, published yesterday. The data shows that sales and prices of commercial housing are falling, and will continue to fall at least through mid-...

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    Construction Quarterly - Q4 2011

    Summary and outlook:

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    Daily - China's Policy Dilemma

    China is likely to report a sharply lower CPI number tomorrow: around +4.5% YoY for November, down from October's +5.5%, which is also the average figure for the past 12 months. Ordinarily this would be excellent news, but in reality it underscores the very difficult bind that Chinese policymakers have got themselves into. This bind arises first from a conflict between structural and cyclical trends, which are moving in opposite directions...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Property

    Property: Weasel words, real construction

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Steel Demand and the Construction Cycle

    DragonWeek: an opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Daily - Battle of Wills as Beijing Squeeze Property Sector

    The rally in Chinese stocks that began last month essentially represents a bet that Beijing will get worried about the economic slowdown, start loosening and cave in on its battle of wills against the property developers. To some extent, this was the right bet. Despite public proclamation that “inflation remains the number-one priority,” the latest credit data would indicate that Beijing is easing up a bit (see Monday’s Daily—The Start of a New...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Chongqing's Public Housing Predicament

    China’s government is trying to fix the housing market—again. As it struggles to address a huge shortage of low-income housing and the rising discontent of urban residents with housing prices, the government has promised to build tens of millions of units of subsidized or “social” housing. The core of this program is a new model of public rental housing, which officials increasingly prefer to older programs of subsidized owner-occupied housing.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Oct 2011 Data

    DragonWeek: an opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Gavekal Research

    Growth-Supportive Policy Will Come, But Not Now

    China’s growth momentum held up well at +9.1% YoY in 3Q11, but a number of signs point to a more substantial slowdown in the months to come. Further deceleration in the twin growth engines of exports and investment seems certain for 4Q11, which is likely to take headline GDP growth down to a rate of +8%-8.5%. We also expect that 1Q12 growth will fall below the “magical 8% rate”—which will be challenging for a government long accustomed to easy...

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    More Public Housing in Hong Kong

    Hong Kong is known for winning many plaudits and awards—for instance it regularly tops the “free-est economy” rankings. Earlier this year, a group in the US called Demographia gave Hong Kong a more dubious top ranking: as the city with the world’s least affordable housing market. Demographia’s analysis showed that a median house price in HK was 11.4x the gross annual median income. This compared to 9.6x in Sydney, 7.2x in London, 6.1x in New...

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    Gavekal Research

    The 'Defensive' Nature of China's Riskiest Sectors

    Among the growing concerns of a Chinese hard landing (not our core scenario, see China’s Structural Strength & Cyclical Challenges), investors have shied away from what is conventionally believed to be the riskiest sectors—banks, property and (due to corruption and safety fears) rail. Ironically, however, in case of serious downturn in the Chinese economy, these are probably also the sectors that Beijing would feel the need to support...

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    Landesa on Rural Land Reform in China

    We recently met Roy Prosterman and Yu Gao, of the Landesa Rural Development Institute, at a luncheon discussing land reform issues in rural China. Addressing China’s urban-rural divide is one of China’s most pressing structural issues - the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that 63% of China’s economically active population is categorized as rural, yet average rural life expectancy is 12 years shorter than urban, infant mortality...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Construction Cooling Not Crashing

    [TABLE="class: grid, align: center"]

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    Construction Quarterly - Q3 2011

    China real estate and construction market review: September 2011

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2011 - Economic Survey

    Economic survey (Q3 2011)

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2011 - Property

    Property: Empty fears

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