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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - A Turn To The Supply Side

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Finding Investment's Future

    China’s investment growth is slowing, but that slowdown is not equally distributed. The huge investment surge of the past decade was primarily driven by a domestic housing boom, which in turn demanded big investment in industrial capacity to supply construction materials. But the volume of property construction will see at best very modest growth in coming years, as the growth in domestic housing supply is reaching a plateau (see Reaching The...

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    Gavekal Research

    Weaker For Longer

    China’s economic indicators for April confirmed that the weak recovery in Q1, and especially March, was not simply a blip. While growth in industrial value-added and other manufacturing indicators did tick up somewhat, the improvement was quite modest given the extremely low base set by the slowdown in April 2012. Credit continues to be very loose and housing sales are still doing very well, but these traditional leading indicators are taking...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Many More Times

    China’s growth has disappointed, again. GDP rose just 7.7% YoY in Q1, slowing from the 7.9% in Q4; in sequential terms, the slowdown was even worse, to an annualized 6.6% QoQ from 8.2%. The weak growth figure caught most observers, including ourselves, off guard, as a cyclical recovery—albeit a modest one—looked clearly underway as of the end of 2012. And with this unexpected soft patch in growth coming so soon after the last soft patch in 2Q12...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - The Bumpy Road To Rebalancing

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - What Goes Around, Comes Around

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Cutting Red Tape

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    Gavekal Research

    Crazy, But Not That Crazy

    Every so often we get worried calls from readers who have just seen a press report on “ghost cities” and wonder whether we have changed our minds and now agree that the Chinese property bubble is about to burst. The latest spate of calls followed a very scary piece by the US television program 60 Minutes featuring footage of miles upon miles of empty apartment blocks and shopping malls in Zhengzhou, Tianjin and Ordos.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Walking The Tightrope

    Is China’s growth too weak or too strong? Commentary on the confusing economic data for the first two months of 2013 has been understandably divided. Deciphering the signals is not helped by the usual distortions in the data from the Chinese New Year holiday. On the minus side, the key indicator of industrial value-added slowed unexpectedly, and retail sales were disappointing, an apparent casualty of Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign. On...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly March 2013 - The Reform Agenda

    Next week, China’s National People’s Congress will formally anoint the country’s new leaders. President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang—who are expected to remain in power for the next decade—know that the years of easy, investment-driven growth are over. Under their leadership, China must find a healthier development model that puts greater reliance on household consumption, uses capital more efficiently, and provides more citizens with a...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2013 - Land policy and development: How Asia Works

    Most people assume the world will continue to speed up. Yet the chances of seeing another developmental story like China’s are rather low. The era of transitions from poverty to wealth in only two generations, or 50 years, is probably over. The reason is that China—like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan before it, and Vietnam along with it—built its extraordinary developmental performance on land reform that enabled a transition to high-yield...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2013 - Property: Premier Li's new deal

    When new leaders come to power, they like to put their immediate stamp on policy. China’s incoming premier, Li Keqiang, is no different. The only trouble is that Li’s new gospel of growth—urbanization—sounds very much like the old one. More urbanization, after all, will require lots of new housing and city infrastructure. But relying on investment to drive growth is hardly likely to elicit cries of “Eureka!”

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Leaning Against The Wind

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - More Bark Than Bite

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Macro Chartbook Feb 2013

    A clear cyclical recovery took hold at the end of 2012, confirmed by multiple indicators.

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    Gavekal Research

    When To Worry About Housing Prices

    Housing prices in three-quarters of major Chinese cities are now rising again. Prices paid at land auctions are setting new records. Nationwide housing sales growth, at 11% YoY in Q4, is in the double digits. In short, China’s housing market seems to have returned overnight to the red-hot boom of 2009-10. Since much of China’s broader economic rebound is due to renewed strength in housing, the sustainability of this latest property boom will do...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - More Than A Trickle, Less Than A Flood

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Consolidating The Recovery

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Industry Profits From Property's Recovery

    China’s economic data in November showed an increasingly firm domestic recovery. Heavy industry, particularly metals and other construction materials, led the sharp slowdown earlier this year, and is now leading the rebound. Indicators tied to this sector—notably electricity output—that have underperformed the rest of the economy are now catching back up. Importantly, the industrial profit cycle has also turned, and profits are likely to show...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly December 2012 - State-owned Enterprises

    One of the most persistent claims made about China’s economy is that an embattled private sector is getting squeezed out by increasingly powerful state-owned enterprises. This claim does not stand up to the evidence: private companies have increased their share of virtually every economic indicator, from exports to employment to bank credit. But that does not mean all is well in corporate China. Though large in aggregate, private firms remain...

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