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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Interpreting Rates And Reform

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Corporations Underwrite A Consumer Recovery

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Passing The Growth Baton

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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Growth Is Stronger, Time To Step Up Reforms

    China’s third-quarter GDP came in at 7.8% YoY, the fastest pace this year. The main driver of the pickup was expectations. In the first six months, companies ran down inventories on the fear that the new leadership planned painful structural reforms, including further property market curbs and sharp monetary tightening. Then at a conference in July, Premier Li Keqiang, while eschewing a major stimulus, nevertheless offered assurances that growth...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Housing & Construction Review 2013

    China’s housing market is in transition. After a decade of severe under-supply of housing, the market is now flirting with over-supply thanks to a redoubling of construction volumes. Urbanization is continuing, but its place is likely to slow, and all cities will not benefit equally. Yet housing prices continue to rise, and the government continues to try to restrict many types of purchases. To understand how all these different trends fit...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What Happens When The Land Runs Out?

    For three decades China’s cities have grown by gobbling up fields and chopping down trees. But in a country that must feed one-fifth of humanity with just 8% of the world’s farmland, land is a scarce commodity. The government believes that it must maintain a minimum 120m hectares of cultivated land to ensure basic food self sufficiency. And since the current area is already very close to this so-called “red line,” cities must somehow grow...

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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Investment Kicks The Construction Habit

    In sharp contrast to better than expected industrial output and export growth in August, residential construction is spluttering. Construction starts fell -20% YoY and were largely flat in the 3Q13 period. Sales growth for both apartments and development land also decelerated. Given the importance of property construction to overall Chinese investment spending, the weakness implies one of two things: either the recovery will be short lived, or...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Hard Choices For Housing Policy

    China’s new leadership has tried for a fresh approach on many economic policies this year. But on the key issue of housing, they have opted for continuity. The so-called housing purchase restrictions, the key housing policy of the last administration, have been firmly in place since mid-2010. Applied in most major cities, these measures put penalties on new housing purchases by those households that already own a house. By limiting housing...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly September 2013 - Agriculture

    [LEFT]China is the world’s biggest producer of rice, wheat, pork, eggs, cotton, fruit and vegetables, and the second biggest producer of maize and poultry meat. It manages this with only 8% of the world’s farmland and 6% of its renewable water resources. Yet most of China’s farms are too small to be commercially viable and food-safety standards are poor. To raise productivity and meet the demands of more discerning consumers, China needs to...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2013 - Property

    After a thoroughly disappointing first half of the year, China’s government has been busily announcing targeted policies to shore up growth. One of the most important is a new program of slum renovation. This will start work on 3.04m units of new housing in the rest of 2013, and a total of 10m units by 2017. Given that new construction has been extremely weak so far this year, a renewed public-housing push has the potential to make a real...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Reform Advances, Growth Steadies

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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Growth Is In The Air (Maybe)

    Growth is in the air! This is the refrain we are hearing increasingly from Chinese government spokesmen, and there are a number of indicators that give credence to the official sanguinity. Construction starts rebounded strongly in July. A stabilization in the producer price index and steel and iron ore prices suggests destocking is ending. With Europe out of recession and US data improving, exports should provide another tailwind.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Mixing Growth And Austerity

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Social Housing Makes A Comeback

    After a thoroughly disappointing first half, China’s government now looks increasingly worried about growth. Premier Li Keqiang, who started his tenure in office with much fine rhetoric about the need for structural reform, has recently been talking about the “bottom line” for growth (7%, in case you wondered) and the need to maintain confidence. While the administration says there is still no need for looser monetary or fiscal policy, it has...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - The Cost Of The Credit Crunch

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Small Is Not So Beautiful

    There is a growing disconnect in China’s housing market. Sales have soared in big cities since the final quarter of 2012, but construction growth remains anemic. Developers for now remain reluctant to aggressively expand new construction, preferring instead to sell down their existing inventory. This behavior is consistent with our analysis that the housing market, after more than a decade of undersupply, swung into oversupply in 2012. Around...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - From Oversupply To Undersupply

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly June 2013 - Southeast Asia

    Deng Xiaoping used to say that the foreign policy breakthrough he was most proud of was the full normalization of China’s relations with the countries in Southeast Asia. In the 1980s, Deng’s policies helped China transform itself from a deadly enemy of its southern neighbors to a potential partner. Over the next two decades, China nurtured relationships in its backyard. Yet over the past few years many of these efforts have gone to waste: from...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2013 - Property

    Something strange is going on in China’s property market. Sales have soared in big citiessince the final quarter of 2012, but construction growth remains anemic (see “Economicsurvey” on p3). The weak numbers suggest that we can no longer rely on sales todrive construction starts, and also point to a structural shift towards slowingdemand. This leaves one central question: if demand remains healthy in China’s70 largest cities, as the official...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - A Turn To The Supply Side

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