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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - The Best Laid Plans

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Promises, Promises

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Welcome To The Chinese Business Cycle

    Over the last few years, China has not had business cycles: it has had policy cycles. Economic ups and downs were driven almost entirely by high-level policy, and understanding which way the government wanted the economy to go was, more or less, all you needed to know. Most observers, including ourselves, thus expected the government’s switch to pro-growth policies in October 2011 to have steadied the economy by now. This has not happened,...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2012 - Property: Encircling the cities from the countryside

    Drive around the edge of any large Chinese city and you will see block after block of urban-style flats. Many of these are built on state-owned urban construction land and are recorded in urban construction data. But an unknown number are built on rural construction land—officially owned by village collectives, not the state—and are not counted as part of the urban housing market. Many of these flats are occupied by rural hukou holders who have...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly September 2012 - China In Africa

    China’s growing influence in Africa has attracted many negative headlines. Critics fault Chinese policy banks for offering cheap loans to unpalatable governments in return for natural resources, and accuse state-owned enterprises of “neo-colonial” behavior across the continent. The truth is far more nuanced. Many African countries—and not only those ruled by vicious dictators or corrupt governments—welcome Chinese investment. And China’s role in...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Encircling The Cities From The Countryside

    Drive around the rural fringe of any large Chinese city and you will see block after block of apartment buildings. Many of these are built on state-owned urban construction land and are recorded in urban construction data. But an unknown number are built on rural construction land—officially owned by village collectives, not the state—and are not counted as part of the urban housing market. Much of this housing is occupied by rural hukou holders...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Stimulus, Real And Imagined

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Property: A Volume Game

    Hong Kong property developers have outperformed the Hang Seng Index in the two months since CY Leung became chief executive. This runs counter to the pre-election perception that Mr Leung was an outsider in Hong Kong’s business-friendly political circles who would threaten the local property cartel and flood the market with new (more affordable) supply (see Property & Populism In Hong Kong). The fact that top executives of Sun Hung Kai...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Five Corners—Asia

    For years it was fashionable to bemoan the scourge of “hot money” inflows into China. Now, with China’s foreign exchange reserves registering falls in three of the last four months, it is fashionable to talk about “hot money” flowing out of China. Another bit of evidence for the coming collapse of China? Hardly.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Bouncing Along The Bottom

    Despite a visible and sustained recovery in the property sector, China’s economy continued to slow in July. It is not collapsing, but neither is it very vigorous, and this picture is unlikely to change soon. A structural slowdown, whose conditions were evident in 2008 but whose onset was delayed by two years of massive monetary stimulus after the global financial crisis, is now firmly in train. Government policy remains mildly stimulative—with...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Property: Steady As She Goes

    China’s property sector is clearly on the mend, but the recovery is slow and steady rather than meteoric. Policy makers probably welcome the modest rebound in transactions and prices, which should lead an uptick in broader economic growth later this year. But they remain vigilant about containing sharp rises in house prices, which could spark social discontent. So Beijing’s property policy will almost certainly stay on its present course, with...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Macro Chartbook Aug 2012 - The Art Of Easing

    Our quarterly chartbook reviews and interprets China’s major economic indicators in convenient graphical form. Main points in the latest edition include:

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Houses and Jobs

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Better Things Are On The Way

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    Gavekal Research

    Life Returns To China's Property Sector

    China’s recent economic numbers have been broadly disappointing—with the notable and very important exception of property. In May listed developers reported month-on-month sales increases ranging from 19% to 44%; even year-on-year figures rose as high as 20% to 30%. The momentum has continued in June, with many developers now having achieved 50% of their respective sales targets by mid-year. Weekly sales volume in the top 40 cities rebounded...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Housing & Construction Review 2012

    Confused by China’s housing market? You are not alone. But fear not, our regular overview of housing and construction covers the fundamentals needed to understand the market in a convenient visual form. How much does real estate matter for China’s economic growth? Does urbanization really drive the housing market? Who buys housing in China, and how can they afford it? What drives the construction cycle? How does government policy affect the...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Power Prices And Bank Margins

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Not As Bad As We Thought

    May’s economic data was better than we expected, particularly as PBC’s pre-emptive interest rate cut last Thursday appeared to signal increased official concern about the pace of growth (see China Rate Cut Signals Reform). Growth in all the major activity indicators, including industrial value added, fixed asset investment and retail sales, picked up slightly in May compared with April, while exports and imports accelerated more. Meanwhile,...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Property

    For the past two years, the broad of aim of China’s restrictive property poli­cies has been simple—to make housing more affordable. The government’s approach has been to squeeze demand at the top of the market and boost supply at the bottom. Have these measures succeeded? For the vast major­ity of native urbanites, the answer is yes. In 2010, the price-to-income ratio in big cities exceeded nine; this year it should fall to near seven. The major...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Weak Currency, Weak Growth

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