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E.g., 26-10-2020
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2013 - Property: Premier Li's new deal

    When new leaders come to power, they like to put their immediate stamp on policy. China’s incoming premier, Li Keqiang, is no different. The only trouble is that Li’s new gospel of growth—urbanization—sounds very much like the old one. More urbanization, after all, will require lots of new housing and city infrastructure. But relying on investment to drive growth is hardly likely to elicit cries of “Eureka!”

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Leaning Against The Wind

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - More Bark Than Bite

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Macro Chartbook Feb 2013

    A clear cyclical recovery took hold at the end of 2012, confirmed by multiple indicators.

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    Gavekal Research

    When To Worry About Housing Prices

    Housing prices in three-quarters of major Chinese cities are now rising again. Prices paid at land auctions are setting new records. Nationwide housing sales growth, at 11% YoY in Q4, is in the double digits. In short, China’s housing market seems to have returned overnight to the red-hot boom of 2009-10. Since much of China’s broader economic rebound is due to renewed strength in housing, the sustainability of this latest property boom will do...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - More Than A Trickle, Less Than A Flood

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Consolidating The Recovery

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Industry Profits From Property's Recovery

    China’s economic data in November showed an increasingly firm domestic recovery. Heavy industry, particularly metals and other construction materials, led the sharp slowdown earlier this year, and is now leading the rebound. Indicators tied to this sector—notably electricity output—that have underperformed the rest of the economy are now catching back up. Importantly, the industrial profit cycle has also turned, and profits are likely to show...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly December 2012 - State-owned Enterprises

    One of the most persistent claims made about China’s economy is that an embattled private sector is getting squeezed out by increasingly powerful state-owned enterprises. This claim does not stand up to the evidence: private companies have increased their share of virtually every economic indicator, from exports to employment to bank credit. But that does not mean all is well in corporate China. Though large in aggregate, private firms remain...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2012 - Property: Nearing The Peak

    China’s housing boom reached new heights in 2010-11, on the back of a huge monetary stimulus and a new low-income housing program. The fading of this construction boom is clearly a big part of the sharp slowdown in China’s growth in 2012. But there remains a huge backlog of housing under construction that will hit the market over the next few years. Does this mean there will be a supply glut?

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - This Land Is Your Land

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Biggest Migration In Human History

    The journey from farm to city is the story of China’s transformation from a poor and backward country to a global economic superpower. By 2030, when China’s urban population is projected to swell to 1 billion, its cities will be home to one in every eight people on earth. How China’s urban billion live will shape the future of the world.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Reaching The Housing Peak

    China’s housing boom reached new heights in 2010-11, on the back of a huge monetary stimulus and a new low-income housing program. The fading of this construction boom is clearly a big part of the sharp slowdown in China’s growth in 2012. But there remains a huge backlog of housing under construction that will hit the market over the next few years. Assessing the scale of this coming wave of housing supply is difficult because of inconsistent...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Xi Rides The Turning Cycle

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Yet MOR debt

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Macro Chartbook Nov 2012 - Finding The Bottom

    The worst of the economic slowdown is over, as most growth indicators have steadied.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Profits Firm, Wages Steady

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Slower And Steadier All Around

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Storm Is Passing Over

    Earlier this week Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao previewed the Q3 economic data, telling his audience that “currently there are some positive changes in the economy, and growth is stabilizing.” Lo and behold, the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed exactly that: while headline GDP growth continued to slow in Q3, many indicators for September steadied or improved slightly. There are not yet convincing signs that a...

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    Gavekal Research

    RMB: More Volatility, Less Direction

    Whither the renminbi? Movements in China’s currency have become more difficult to understand lately. For much of the first half of this year the unit depreciated, reversing a trend established in 2005 of annual 5% appreciation against the US dollar. But in the last couple of months it has trended up sharply, reaching a 19-year high of 6.25 against the dollar.

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