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E.g., 24-04-2018
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    Gavekal Research

    Emerging Markets And Energy

    We all know, don’t we, what defining characteristics the emerging markets have in common? Of course we do. Emerging markets are developing countries on course to become advanced economies, typically with the assistance of powerful demographic tailwinds. But although they enjoy rapid growth over the long term, their institutional architecture is still under construction. As a result, emerging equity markets are more volatile than those of the...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    New Jobless Rate, Same Old Problems

    China has moved to rid itself of a longstanding statistical embarrassment, replacing its discredited unemployment data with a new survey based on international standards. But as Ernan explains, the old problems have not gone away: the new jobless rate is still implausibly low and stable, and likely still subject to political manipulation.

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    Gavekal Research

    A First Step Towards Easing

    The Chinese central bank is no longer in full policy tightening mode. That’s good news for Chinese bank shares. Shortly after government statisticians released economic data for the first quarter on Tuesday, the People’s Bank Of China announced a 100bp reduction in bank reserve requirement ratios. For big banks, this reduces the proportion of their deposits they are required to lodge as reserves at the central bank from 17% to 16%. In gross...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Keeping Credit Growth On Track

    China’s central bank has tweaked monetary policy to soften the slowdown in credit growth. The RRR cut continues its strategy of managing liquidity to limit the economic impact of the campaign against financial risk. Other data for March still point to a moderate growth slowdown in 2018, particularly given the continued strength in property.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call April 2018

    During yesterday’s monthly call, Arthur Kroeber addressed rising geoeconomic and geopolitical tensions between the world’s two biggest economies. He argued that US moves against China ran far deeper than trade tariffs as actors across the political spectrum in Washington were intent on changing China’s basic economic model, something that Beijing will likely fiercely resist. Much of his focus was on the tech sector, which is front-and-center of...

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar — April 2018

    At Gavekal’s seminar in Hong Kong this week, Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao and Nick Andrews presented their latest views on the brewing trade war between the US and China, Chinese growth and the property market outlook, and how to capture European growth.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Changing Language On Leverage

    China’s policymakers have for the first time called for reducing the total debt-to-GDP ratio. This shift has raised worries that monetary policy could get tougher, on top of the tightening of financial regulation that is already underway. In this piece, Long explains that no shift in policy is imminent; if anything, easing is getting more likely.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What Inflation Means For Margins

    As China’s producer price inflation cools and its consumer price inflation picks up, one might expect corporate margins to be fattening, as cost pressures wane and pricing power strengthens. In fact, the opposite is true: margins have been fat, and are now getting tighter. In this piece, Thomas explains how inflation really affects margins.

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    Gavekal Research

    After Constructive Engagement

    Separating signal from noise in the ongoing US-China trade dispute continues to be a thankless task. Trade war fears rose late last week thanks to an offhand threat from President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on another US$100bn of imports from China. They ebbed early this week when Trump reversed course and said a deal was likely soon, and Chinese president Xi Jinping delivered a speech promising a reduction in automobile tariffs and market...

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    Gavekal Research

    Reasons To Buy The Dip

    After spending many years as Gavekal’s equity permabull, I joined Charles and Louis last December in warning of the risks to what was then a roaring, and accelerating, bull market. But my way of thinking about these risks was rooted in a different analytical framework, and so I have come to a different conclusion about how investors should respond to this latest sell-off (for Louis’ take, see Following Yesterday’s Pullback). With the lows of mid...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: Making Sense Of China's New Era

    In this lively presentation from our recent London seminar, Tom Miller outlines the dramatic political changes that have been taking place in China. He explains what Xi Jinping’s new status means for economic policy and governance, and how the links between the Communist Party and the state are being strengthened.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Steel Survived The Battle For Blue Skies

    It’s been a wild winter for China’s steel industry, with huge swings in output and prices. The main culprit is the aggressive official campaign to reduce air pollution—and the industry’s creative responses to it. Their back-and-forth has not hurt underlying growth much, but the resulting volatility in steel prices is not going away.

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    Gavekal Research

    Ready For A Further P/E Derating

    I see but through a glass darkly. Sometimes, however there are glimmers of light. Four months ago, in early December, I examined the signals being broadcast by the various investment rules I have long followed and concluded that: “While global markets have been stable for the past 18 months, we may soon be entering a period of greater instability.”

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    Gavekal Research

    Following Yesterday’s Pullback

    Two weeks ago I looked back at Enron’s collapse in 2001 and asked whether a crash-and-burn at Tesla or Uber would be this cycle’s catalyst for a fundamental re-assessment of business models. But perhaps my sights were set too low, as this roll-over was triggered not by a cash-burning profligate flaming out, but by turmoil engulfing the Facebook gorilla, and by extension the likes of Google and Snap, which rely on “the user being the product”.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Navigating In Choppy Waters

    With its latest sell-off, the S&P 500 capped two months of volatility by moving officially into correction territory: down -10% from its January high, and below its 200-day moving average for the first time in two years. Is this the end of the long US equity bull market? In this edition of our Strategy Monthly, we offer three perspectives on how investors should position themselves in these more volatile times.

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    Gavekal Research

    Can EMs Survive A Trade War And Keep Thriving?

    A US-China trade war would disrupt trade, likely drive up inflation and potentially spark a general risk-off move in markets. This scenario would be pretty terrible for emerging markets, but Joyce reckons it is a tail risk and the general outlook remains decent. In this chartbook, she reviews EMs' vulnerability to a trade bust and explains why profits should drive a maturing cycle that increasingly favors commodity-focused markets outside...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Centralization Amid Conflict

    In our latest chartbook, Chen Long outlines a relatively positive cyclical economic picture for China, with steady macro policy, strengthening financial regulation, and further political centralization. The risks to this outlook are tightening property policies, a local government funding squeeze and the looming threat of a US-China trade conflict.

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    Gavekal Research

    On Protectionism

    As the US toughens up its negotiating stance on trade, it seems that ghosts from the Great Depression haunt the land. The men of Davos can be heard to intone gravely that President Donald Trump is aping Herbert Hoover, and as in the 1930s, the global economy may go into a tailspin. I am struck that our cherished elites have discovered a form of government intervention that they do not like, especially given their support for so many other “...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Pain Of Power Producers

    The rebound in commodity prices since 2016 has been a boon for much of China’s industrial sector—but coal-burning power plants have been big losers. Coal prices cannot go much higher without causing serious financial distress. This means that policy should now be shifting to favor power producers, by ensuring coal prices do not climb further.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Trade Wars: A China Expert Roundtable

    Last week’s sharp equity market sell-off followed the US effectively threatening China with a trade war. In this report, Arthur, Long and Andrew address China’s capacity to strike back and explore what it means for the relationship between the world’s two biggest economies.

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