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E.g., 12-05-2021
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Population Turning Point Gets Closer

    China’s 2020 census has confirmed that the country’s population could peak around 2025, rather than the consensus forecast of around 2030. Ernan writes that inconsistencies in the data suggest the census figures are overstated; indeed, China’s population may already have peaked in the last year, a decade ahead of schedule.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Chill In EU-China Relations

    Hailed as a breakthrough when it was struck back in December, the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement On Investment is in trouble, with little chance the deal will be ratified in the European Parliament amid a deep deterioration in bilateral relations. Nick examines what the political frost means for the earnings of European companies operating in China.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Screws Tighten On SOE Debts

    China’s central authorities are ramping up their campaign to deal with hidden local-government debt, rolling out new rules and high-level political instructions. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains how this scrutiny will produce more defaults by state-backed firms, but also hopefully clarify the problematic legacy of implicit sovereign guarantees.

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    Gavekal Research

    Ricardian Growth Is Fragile, Schumpeterian Growth Is Anti-Fragile

    Capitalism works well when activity is undertaken using David Ricardo’s law of comparative advantage and Joseph Schumpeter’s process of creative destruction. Charles argues that an era of Ricardian growth for many countries and industries is running out of road and the drivers of Schumpeterian economic transformation are shifting.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Coming Home For The Holidays

    The number of tourists over China’s five-day Labor Day holiday recovered to 3.2% above 2019 levels, according to the Ministry of Culture & Tourism, although tourism revenue was still 23% below 2019. In this Quick Take, Ernan outlines explains what renewed confidence in domestic travel means for China’s services recovery.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Global Pivot To The Indo-Pacific

    The Indo-Pacific is at the heart of global geopolitics today. The US, UK, and European Union are all shifting their attention east. Tom argues that the new treatment of the Indian and Pacific Oceans as a single, connected space reflects a key shift in managing China’s regional power. The impact will be felt in both strategic and economic terms.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, May 2021

    Joe Biden's enormous fiscal initiatives mark a potential sea change in the US government’s role in the economy. They may yet get watered down as the US president negotiates with more conservative members of his party, but tax and spend is clearly the new mantra in Washington DC. The question for investors is what this means for assets in the US and around the world.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Steel Price Squeeze Is Here To Stay

    China’s iron and steel prices have broken through their post-financial crisis highs, the result of strong domestic demand, constrained international supply and government plans to curb steel production. In this report, Rosealea explains why prices are likely to remain elevated but slowing demand growth should keep them from rising further.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Biden's Tech War

    The US has changed generals in its tech war against China, but that has not brought a respite in the campaign. President Joe Biden is deploying many of the same sanctions used by the Trump administration, while also looking to invest in extending the US technological lead. In this piece, Dan surveys the state of play in the US-China tech war.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: China’s Multi-Dimensional Tightening

    China’s economic policymakers are using the space afforded them by a rapid economic recovery from the pandemic to refocus on a longer-term effort to redirect resources for strategic and political purposes. The immediate effect is a multi-faceted tightening across many sectors. For investors, this effort may upend old uncertainties and create new risks.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Meteoric Rise Of Mutual Funds

    The size of China’s equity mutual-fund industry has doubled over the past year, a sharp rise driven by policy shifts and strong performance. While fund performance and fundraising has suffered in 2021, Thomas argues that mutual funds can still help increase the role of institutional investors in China’s volatile, retail-dominated equity markets.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Antitrust Net Widens

    China’s antitrust crackdown on its internet sector is just getting started. Earlier this month, regulators brought in 34 major internet platforms and made clear that abusive business practices will no longer be tolerated. In this report, Ernan explains why firms still focused on trying to outwit the system could suffer disproportionately.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Curing The Coal Addiction

    China’s reliance on coal is a major hurdle to its goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. The country is gradually improving its energy mix; however, despite these efforts, Rosealea argues that China’s appetite for coal and continued dependence on the energy-intensive construction complex mean that its green transition will be slow and painful.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Rise Of Regulatory Risk In China

    Risk is alive and well in China even amid a record economic recovery. Antitrust authorities are turning their attention to the rest of China's internet platforms, financial regulators are taking a tougher line and Chinese equity markets are looking a bit wobbly. In yesterday's webinar, our panel of China analysts discussed the latest regulatory developments and their implications for markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Taxing Capital

    Next week Joe Biden will set out plans to double the rate of capital gains tax for Americans making over US$1mn a year. The president’s proposal is the latest element of his initiative to levy higher taxes, from one direction or another, on the elusive earnings of multinational corporations and wealthy individuals in order to help fund higher government spending. Whatever the political merits of Biden’s plan, his multi-pronged approach will be...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Calling The Peak

    China’s post-Covid recovery continues, but Q1 should be the peak of the cycle. The strength of the rebound has given policymakers confidence to focus on longer-term issues; the result is a multi-dimensional tightening of policy. In the latest edition of our regular chartbook, the Dragonomics team explains the outlook for the economy and markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Discontinuity Risk In A Bipolar World

    For the first time in generations, the world now has two economic poles—the US and China. And they are following diametrically opposed monetary and fiscal policies. US policy is as Keynesian as you can get, while China has read the book on Wicksell and is turning restrictive. This divergence is the single most important challenge investors face today.

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    Gavekal Research

    Trading The Vaccination S-Curve

    Vaccination programs around the world have gotten off the ground at widely varying speeds. But everywhere they tend to follow a similar S-curve trajectory. While most countries are still in the early stages of their vaccination programs, a very few are in their late stages, where the S-curves begin to flatten. Their experience provides an investible roadmap.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    1994 All Over Again?

    Consider a flash back to 1994, when financial markets were mostly driven by what happened in the US, Europe and Japan. Europe was unable to tighten monetary policy while Japan was in a debt-driven deflationary bust. The US raised interest rates and sparked a seven-year bull market in the US dollar. Today, it is China which surprises everyone with a tightening.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Quest For Semiconductor Sovereignty

    China is using the best-funded industrial policy in history to engineer greater self-reliance in semiconductors. Ambition and a big checkbook, however, do not guarantee success. In this DeepChina report, Dan argues that Chinese chip firms will increase their market share in some segments, but will not make it to the technological frontier.

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