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E.g., 16-01-2022
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    Gavekal Research

    Gold As An Emerging Market Play

    Spare a thought for gold bugs. At the beginning of 2021, their reasoning was clear. With all the money-printing and fiscal stimulus across the rich world, inflation would breeze past 2%. From there, it would be just a short skip and a jump to higher gold prices. Inflation did indeed breeze past 2%. But gold prices fell. So, what went wrong? As Gavekal has long maintained, investors should look at gold as a derivative play on emerging markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, January 2022

    In the US and Europe, the new year has begun with a huge wave of workplace absenteeism due to surging omicron Covid cases. In China, policymakers are adopting a whack-a-mole approach to multiple Covid outbreaks, while other emerging economies are curtailing market opening measures. Our team outline their base case views for growth, inflation and markets in 2022.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Behind The Incredible Export Boom

    Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

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    Gavekal Research

    Breakout Time... Again

    In early 2021 US bond yields charged higher, and oil and gold both looked poised to break out decisively to the upside. The underperformance of value stocks seemed to be coming to an end. Then two developments pulled the rug out from under the cyclical trade. Fast forward, and today we might be back in early 2021. Louis asks what could shock markets this time.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing Demand Begins To Stabilize

    Chinese policymakers are scaling back their crackdown on real estate, having signaled a pivot towards prioritizing stable growth. The change in rhetoric has had a visible effect on the housing market, with a particularly sharp pickup in sales volumes in late December. This should lead to a further sequential improvement in sales and prices in Q1.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Supply-Side Shock

    Soaring infection rates due to the omicron Covid wave are causing widespread disruption to supply chains around the globe. A resolution to global supply issues rests on Beijing maintaining this balancing act, as it also moves to shore up growth.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Covid Containment Evolves

    After a string of outbreaks, China’s Covid strategy is evolving. No longer aiming for zero cases, authorities are focused on quickly containing local outbreaks. This has mostly worked well, and travel will be less restricted over the Lunar New Year holiday. But the harsh lockdown in Xi’an shows what can go wrong if the virus gets out of hand.

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    Gavekal Research

    SWOT Analysis For 2022

    Despite a spate of exogenous shocks in 2021, currency markets largely remained placid, bonds barely sold off and the US equity market continued to scale new heights. This year, however, the global policy backdrop is shifting. Clearly, 2022 will be different from 2021. But how different? Louis analyzes the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the new year.

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    Gavekal Research

    As January Goes

    We are only six days into the year, but most investors must hope that the adage “as January goes, so goes the year” does not hold true for 2022. After all, the S&P 500 is down -1.4% and the Nasdaq has shed -3.5%. And behind this pullback in the broader indexes, pain in the more speculative parts of the market is starting to add up. Since early November, the bitcoin price has fallen -36.5% and the Russell 2000 growth index is flirting with...

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    Gavekal Research

    Validation For VIEs

    China’s policymakers have given foreign investors in Chinese internet firms an unexpected gift: regulatory validation for the variable-interest entity, a corporate structure which allows firms to skirt a prohibition on foreign investment. Thomas explains that while regulatory uncertainty remains for restricted sectors, a key risk has been removed.

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    Gavekal Research

    Rethinking The International Liquidity Crisis

    In recent weeks Charles has published a series of reports assessing changes in the reserve of value that underpins the global financial system. In this report, he returns to one of his older frameworks for the US-dollar-centered system to see if it still has explanatory power. He concludes that it does, but he is not reassured by the findings.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    One Small Cut For Lending

    China announced a 5 bp cut to its one-year loan prime rate on Monday, the latest in a series of supportive measures enacted by officials to ease policy following China’s sharp slowdown in growth. In this Quick Take, Wei explains why future rate cuts are likely on the way, and why the cuts will be positive for Chinese bonds.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Struggle For Self-Sufficiency

    US efforts to slow the development of China’s domestic semiconductor industry through export bans on US-origin technology has duly stymied its leading chipmakers. As a result, Beijing is working hard to achieve some form of technological self-sufficiency. In this interview, Gavekal Fathom China’s Tilly Zhang outlines two prongs of the effort.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Securing The Western Frontier

    China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Welcome Reprieve For Property

    Chinese economic data stabilized in November as exports strengthened and the deep declines in property showed signs of narrowing—a welcome respite from the sharp drops in September and October. Even so, the sector is stabilizing at a low level rather than rebounding to previous highs, underscoring the need for continued policy support.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Green Light For Onshore Chinese Equities

    Chinese officials are signaling a shift in policy to counter downward pressure on growth, a move which Thomas and Wei believe will set the stage for a rally in onshore equities through 1Q22. The main risk is that policymakers under-deliver on their new rhetoric of stability. Meanwhile, the outlook for offshore Chinese equities is more mixed.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Currency Policy Gets More Hands-On

    The People’s Bank of China raised its foreign-exchange reserve-requirement ratio for the second time this year, a clear signal to markets that it wants to cool down currency appreciation. Wei explains that that the central bank is less worried about speculative market action and more concerned that the renminbi is simply getting too strong.

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    Gavekal Research

    Asia’s Manipulative Havens

    In early December, the US Treasury published its half-yearly report card on currency manipulation, in which it softened its criticism of offenders’ foreign exchange policies. When it comes to East Asia, the softening of US criticism is a sign that the Treasury is encouraged the targeted countries are intervening less heavily, allowing their currencies to appreciate.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Big Blades, Big Dreams

    China is the largest market for wind power and the biggest producer of wind turbines. Yet turbines cannot easily be exported, and Chinese firms have found themselves mostly confined to the domestic market. In this report, Dan explains why China’s large presence in wind power development does not mean that it will be globally dominant.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    After The Squeeze Comes The Consolidation

    The financial woes of China’s property developers are piling up and the government is offering only limited support. In this report, Xiaoxi explains why the tight regulations on developer fundraising will gradually force private firms to transfer assets to state-owned firms—which appears to be exactly what policymakers are hoping for.

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