E.g., 17-09-2019
E.g., 17-09-2019
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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — October 2018

    At Gavekal’s seminar in London last month Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky presented on whether the world is breaking up into three different monetary zones, and whether this is a correction to, or an end to, the long-running global bull market. Micahel Clendenin of Gavekal RedTech explained how they conduct research on the Chinese technology and internet sector.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    What's Changed In The Oil Market

    “Sanctions are coming,” proclaimed Donald Trump in a tweet last week, three days before the imposition of the latest US embargo on Iranian oil exports. The oil market was not impressed. Since late September, when crude hit four-year highs, the Brent price has slumped -16.7% from US$86.29 to US$71.91, with WTI falling -19.1%.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    It's Finally Safe To Buy Sterling

    The pound rose 2% yesterday after a statement from the British government that a Brexit deal could be expected by late this month. That has since been rowed back. Nevertheless, the UK is moving into an endgame where the most plausible outcomes are either a "soft Brexit", or a new referendum which results in the UK remaining in the EU. Both would be good news for sterling.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Yes, We're Still In A Bull Market

    Anatole and Will believe that continued exposure to US equities makes sense, since underlying corporate profitability remains strong. So long as one avoids the most rate-sensitive sectors, US portfolios should be 70-75% in stocks, with the rest mainly in cash. Moreover, they argue that the period of EM underperformance is now done, and emerging markets are poised for a significant rally.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Has Oil Set Its High For This Cycle?

    With the price of WTI crude oil now back below its 200-day moving average, Louis puts himself in the shoes of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and imagines what sort of leverage he could exert over Donald Trump, what this means for the enforcement of sanctions against Iran, and what that implies for the oil price going forward.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Another Weight On The Euro

    The bear flattening of the US yield curve while European short rates remain anchored in negative territory means that it no longer makes sense for euro-based investors to hedge the currency risk of US bond purchases. Their hedging costs have risen to a level that wipes out the yield they would get on a 10-year US treasury. For US dollar investors, the opposite is true.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Listen To What Italians Say

    Among the factors rattling global markets this week has been the brewing dispute between Brussels and Italy’s populist government over its blowout budget proposal.The fear is that Italy gets into a vicious circle of tightening credit markets and faltering growth that could end with a resumption of the euro crisis and ultimately its exit from the single currency.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    World Trade And A Troubling Signal

    As Donald Trump has ramped up tariffs on US imports from China, investors have understandably grown anxious about the impact on world trade. Few significant effects have shown up in the data so far. Nevertheless the outlook is alarming—although not necessarily in the way many might think.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    How The Brexit Stalemate Breaks

    As the Brexit negotiations enter their endgame, a stalemate has become the most likely outcome. Theresa May’s Conservative Party is now in open rebellion against her leadership, with Britain’s weekend press reporting that her government is just 72 hours from collapse. And a “No Deal” Brexit “car crash” is now described as a 50-50 probability by many politicians and commentators in both Britain and Europe. Yet the pound has maintained its value...

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast

    Louis investigates six of the most incongruous sets of relationships that have held sway this year and offers alternative explanations. In particular, he focuses on the strange case of China’s response to US trade hostility and argues that understanding Beijing’s game plan may hold the key to whether the long US bull market in equities can stay the course.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Softly, Softly, Mr. Draghi

    Last week was an ugly one for equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic. But there was a crucial difference. US stocks are down from an all-time high set as recently as last month, with the S&P500 closing on Friday above (just) its 200-day moving average. In contrast, eurozone equities have been trending continuously lower ever since the end of January.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Politics (And Economics) Of A Multi-Polar Europe

    This weekend’s election in Bavaria saw voters deal parties in Germany’s ruling coalition a bruising rebuff that further erodes Merkel’s authority and effectively kills off Macron’s plan for the EU to integrate at a faster pace. In light of such a changed environment, Nick and Cedric introduce a new framework to explain how political bargaining will work in an increasingly multi-polar Europe.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Bonds' Failure To Rally

    Given all the bad news for markets this year, one would be forgiven for thinking that US treasuries and German bunds would have been a good investment. But even as emerging markets have sold off and the US dollar has risen against almost every emerging market currency out there, US treasuries (and to a lesser extent bunds) have been an absolute dog of an investment.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call October 2018

    In this month’s Research Conference Call Louis-Vincent Gave examined the present bad tidings from markets and asked whether the global bull market faces a denouement. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this sell-off will likely prove to be a temporary setback for emerging markets and that the global bull market may have further to run. However, he warned that the outcome will depend heavily on where the oil price goes from here.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Why I Love The Euro

    By now surely almost everyone, except perhaps Jacques Delors and Jean-Claude Trichet, must accept that the euro is the greatest monetary mistake governments have imposed on their unsuspecting populations since then Chancellor of the Exchequer Winston Churchill took Britain back onto the gold standard in 1925.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Bottoming Out In France

    It has been a tough summer for the French economy, and a difficult rentrée—as the French call September’s return to classes at the start of the school year—for the government of president Emmanuel Macron. France’s growth rates have fallen of a cliff this year, with GDP growth falling to just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first and second quarters, from an average of 0.7% in 2017. And after household spending actually contracted in 2Q, consumer...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Are We Still In A Bull Market?

    At the start of the year, markets seemed poised for a rotation out of US equities into non-US assets. In fact, US equities and cash are the only assets to have delivered positive returns this year. Louis examines the reasons why and concludes that portfolio managers should stay defensive, while looking for buying opportunities in oversold emerging markets, and in European assets in non-euro countries such as the UK, Sweden and Switzerland.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Italy’s Inevitable Endgame

    Just over a year ago, with the optimism towards eurozone stock markets, and Italy in particular, riding high, I wrote a paper expressing the view that none of the eurozone’s underlying problems, nor Italy’s, had been solved. One year later, the situation is now looking very dangerous indeed.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    More Trouble Ahead For Italian Yields

    The market gave an unequivocal two thumbs down to Italy’s budget deficit forecast announced on Friday. In proposing a deficit target for each of the next three years of 2.4% of GDP, finance minister Giovanni Tria was perceived to have bowed to pressure from Italy’s populist coalition for spending increases and tax cuts, and to have relegated debt reduction to a back seat. In response, Italy’s 10-year government bond yield jumped 26bp to 3.14%,...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    No Deal Could Mean No Brexit

    After European Union leaders rejected Theresa May’s Chequers deal, the UK government is left with only two alternatives, argues Anatole. If Parliament in November is confronted with No Deal or No Brexit, the most likely outcome would be a new referendum and a vote to remain. The result will be a massive appreciation of sterling and a rally in many UK domestic assets.

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