E.g., 24-04-2019
E.g., 24-04-2019
We have found 1848 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Allez Les Bleus!

    A year into Emmanuel Macron’s presidency, the French have finally invaded the streets in huge numbers. It was not, however, to man the barricades and defy his reform agenda, but instead to engage in a massive national celebration after Les Bleus won their second football World Cup in 20 years. Having suffered the confidence-sapping impact of 12 major terrorist attacks since 2012, Sunday’s win against Croatia has blown away the cobwebs and as one...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Real Italian Story

    The big worry about Italy is that its new populist government adopts policies that spark another eurozone crisis, and even a breakup of the European Union. This view is almost certainly wrong, for despite the government this week announcing a roll-back of labor market reforms, it will struggle to implement its radical agenda in any systematic way. This is due to constitutional checks that inhibit radical changes, and the fraught political logic...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Recession Of 2019

    Over the last three months, I have become increasingly concerned that a recession will hit the world economy in 2019. In this paper, I shall explain why. My reasoning is simple, and is based on the behavior of an indicator I have long followed, which I call the World Monetary Base, or WMB. Every time in the past that this monetary aggregate has shown a year-on-year decline in real terms, a recession has followed, often accompanied by a flock of...

    17
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Message From Eurozone Credit

    Should we worry that eurozone corporate bond spreads have doubled since late January? After all, bond yields are rising globally and as deflationary risks have ebbed the European Central Bank has signaled its intent to normalize monetary policy. Yet, looking back at the eurozone’s last cycle, policy was tightened without spreads blowing out. My concern is that the present squeezing of financial conditions is sending a darker message, and will...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Time To Buy Brexit Britain

    “Will the Brexit agony never end?” Anatole asked in mid-June. It now seems that the agony may end much sooner than expected. Following last Friday’s decision by prime minister Theresa May to blur all her “red lines” in negotiations with the EU, and—paradoxically—the subsequent resignation of hard-Brexiteer cabinet minister David Davis, the time to start buying cheap British assets may have come.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hard Yards For Emerging Markets

    Emerging markets have been hit by the combined effect of a stronger US dollar, tighter international liquidity and rising trade tensions, causing their currencies to fall more in the last few months than in the 2013 “taper tantrum”. The big fear for EMs is that the end of easy money globally creates a giant margin call. As a firm, we have tended to be upbeat on their prospects in this cycle, and it may be that a huge buying opportunity has...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Trade War And The US Cycle

    How will the US administration’s trade disputes affect the US economic cycle? In the worst case scenario, if Donald Trump follows through on all his threats the disruption to global supply chains could be great enough to push the world economy into recession. At this point, the greatest impact flows from the high degree of uncertainty about future actions.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Four Roads Ahead

    The first half of the year was not a great one for global equities, and the second half is clouded by risks: slowing growth, rising inflation, renewed political stress in the eurozone, and most of all the threat of massive protectionism by the United States. Louis Gave offers four scenarios of how things could play out, and Arthur Kroeber explains why it's time to start seriously worrying about a worst-case trade scenario.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What Could Turn The Tide?

    The global equity bull market is increasingly looking like the German soccer team: old, tired and getting slow, having reached its peak a while back. Even the “captain” of the bull market, the S&P 500, last made new highs five months ago. Since then, the asset classes that have delivered positive returns have been as few and far between as German goals. Year to date, investors have lost money on US investment grade bonds, on emerging debt,...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Slower Eurozone Growth Ahead

    Wednesday was another grim day for European bank stocks, which are now down almost -24% from their late January peak. Yesterday Louis looked at the reasons behind the slump in bank shares globally, and attempted to find a silver lining to the dark cloud of their underperformance (see The Message From Bank Stocks). When it comes to Europe, however, the fall in bank shares is just one more reason to feel pessimistic.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Behind European Underperformance

    Amid Monday’s trade-war-inspired risk-off, it is significant that European equities underperformed. Sure, Europe had already closed when White House trade advisor Peter Navarro emerged to reassure investors that the US administration is not proposing blanket investment restrictions. Even so, European markets suffered disproportionately. That should be no surprise, considering that the current global trade uncertainties have arisen against a...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Oil After The OPEC Meeting

    Let us start with a simple reality: assuming the world economy avoids a 2008-type implosion, then global demand for oil should approach 100mn barrels per day by the year’s end. That represents an increase in global demand this year of roughly 1.5mn bpd—more or less the same pace of increase the world has had to deal with in recent years.

    11
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Investment Scenarios Ahead

    The interaction of three prices—the US dollar, long-dated US interest rates, and oil—tend to determine the behavior of most other asset values, and so far this year, all three have moved higher. Investors have adjusted to this new reality with some trepidation: among major markets, only the US (S&P 500) and Japan (Nikkei 225, barely) are up year-to-date in US dollar terms.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why US Long Rates Aren’t Going Up

    The behavior of US long rates presents something of a puzzle just now. The US economy is humming along nicely for this late in the cycle, and is even booming following last year’s tax cuts. Inflation is ticking higher. And short rates are rising. As a result, I would normally expect long rates to be climbing towards the top of the reasonable valuation band dictated by my bond market model (seeBond Market Risks). But they are doing no such thing...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe Through Rose-Tinted Specs

    If the European Central Bank had a dot plot, on Thursday it would have shifted downwards. The ECB’s dovishness stood in contrast with the Federal Reserve, which just a day earlier moved its own dot plot projection of future interest rates upwards. If the market retained confidence in Europe’s relative growth and returns, this divergence of rate expectations probably would not matter greatly. But with European growth softening, and political risk...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Terms Of Betrayal

    Will the Brexit agony never end? Theresa May managed this week to remove troublesome amendments attached by the House of Lords to her legislation for taking Britain out of the European Union. But she was immediately in even deeper political trouble. These problems show just why I have been advising clients to avoid any big bets in sterling assets, whether long or short.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe's Cyclical Blues

    When they meet on Thursday, European Central Bank policymakers face a dilemma. As wage and price pressures rise across the eurozone, they are expected to outline an exit from quantitative easing policies. At the same time, growth indicators are weakening, raising the specter of a eurozone recovery (again) being cut off in its infancy. The essential point is whether Europe’s turnaround has become self-sustaining. We think the answer to that...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Revolution In Switzerland?

    This weekend the people of Switzerland vote in a referendum that could upend their country’s monetary system in ways never seen before. If the “Vollgeld” initiative is approved, it will be a major event in world economic history. And even if rejected, the growing groundswell in favor of similar proposals elsewhere in the world means it is worth paying attention to.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A War On All Fronts

    I have previously argued that Trump Administration trade policy—and specifically policy on China—should be understood as a volatile reaction among four forces: the president, the trade warriors, the national security hawks, and the business community. While all four forces are still hard at work, it’s clear that President Trump has the upper hand—as a result of which the US now seems committed to waging trade war on all fronts.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Whether To Buy Italy (And The Euro)

    On Wednesday, Louis argued that the Italian president’s rejection of a proposed coalition finance minister was “worse than a crime, a mistake”. Anatole and Cedric are not so sure. In this paper they examine the two conditions—one political, one financial—that will signal a major buying opportunity in Italy.

    2
Show me: results