E.g., 24-11-2020
E.g., 24-11-2020
We have found 2184 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Good News In EU Investment

    When the stimulative effects of the weak euro and the fall in oil prices fade from the picture, what will sustain Europe’s growth? At first glance it is unlikely to be investment. Structural reforms were meant to cut the costs of doing business, increasing returns on capital and so providing firms with both the confidence and the resources to expand production. Yet a glance at the headline numbers suggests things haven’t worked out that way. In...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Three Ugly Charts

    I would never claim to be an accomplished technical analyst, but I do know how to use a ruler when looking at charts of prices in the markets.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (July 29): The Slowdown In Trade

    Overview: After years in which the world’s major governments have been busy manipulating prices, Charles Gave finds it astonishing that anyone should be surprised by the current slowdown in global trade.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Why The Surprise At Slowing Trade?

    I am afraid I am rapidly turning into Gavekal’s resident bear—asleep half the time, grumpy the rest. In particular, I am amazed how some people have suddenly discovered that world trade is going nowhere, and that they are so bamboozled by this strange pattern. Where exactly have they been for the last 15 years?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Europe: The Re-Domestication Of European Trade

    Since 2009, European exports have gone from strength to strength. As the rest of the world shook off the effects of the financial crisis, European Union exporters found themselves well-positioned to benefit both from the US recovery and from the rise of the emerging market middle classes. What is more, as deflation set in, Southern European economies directed more capital and marketing resources into their export sectors, reinforcing the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How Much Upside For UK Gilt Yields?

    Eight years after the UK last raised interest rates, several members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee are dusting off their hawkish hats. Yesterday’s MPC minutes revealed growing concerns about inflationary pressure, even though consumer inflation was at zero in June. No rate hike is expected before the first quarter of next year, but with the UK economy set to move into a new, more productive, growth phase, it is worth asking...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Good News From Greece

    Greece has reopened its banks, paid its dues to the European Central Bank and cleared its arrears with the International Monetary Fund. After five years of pan-European economic depression and the near-death experience in Greece this month, can we finally say that the euro crisis is over? The conventional answer is definitely not. According to the vast majority of political commentators and economists, ranging from left-wing Keynesians such as...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The End Of An Empire

    Economic growth derives from one of two sources. Either it comes from a rationalization of talent, which we call Ricardian growth, or it comes from new inventions, which we call Schumpeterian growth. Of the two, Ricardian growth is easier to achieve. As barriers to trade, to the movement of people, or to the free flow of capital are dismantled, inefficiencies get squeezed out and growth can soar. Bearing this in mind, it is obvious that the...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (July 15): Deflation Redux

    Overview: When governments interfere with the price discovery mechanism, most people believe the inevitable result is runaway inflation. On the contrary, argues Charles Gave, official manipulation of prices threatens to plunge us all into deflation. United States: Tan Kai Xian examines the marked divergence between goods prices and services prices and ponders what it means for the overall US inflation outlook. Europe: As the eurozone inches its...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Greece, Europe And The Equity Market

    After days of intense Greek psychodrama, with François Hollande playing the good cop and Angela Merkel the bad, Europe has once again served up a compromise. The deal reached yesterday imposes on Greece an even tougher plan than the one rejected by its people nine days ago. No doubt each of us will have a different take on what the agreement will mean for the future of Europe—and of Greece. However, surely everyone will agree with the late...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Europe: Rising Above Bedlam

    While the world has focused on the bickering and brinksmanship of the Greek bailout negotiations, activity in the rest of the eurozone has quietly been picking up pace. Economic confidence is close to its highest level in nearly three years and the composite PMI reached a four-year high of 54.2 in June. More to the point, having plunged into deflation last year, partly because of the second half’s economic soft patch and partly because of the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Broken Trust

    Charles likes to say that people are more likely to change their spouses than change their banks. The Greek crisis has tested this adage to the limit. For five years now, Greek banks have endured a “bank jog” of deposits out of the domestic banking system and into mattresses, foreign accounts and even bitcoins. Amazingly, however, some €130bn in household and business deposits have stayed put. But should Greek banks re-open in the near future,...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe's Democratic Divide

    Voters, it would seem, pose a clear and present danger to the eurozone. Syriza’s success in last weekend’s “Greferendum” shows there is only so much conventional medicine that electorates will take before looking for miracle cures. The party’s rise has mirrored the fall in Greek living standards since the financial crisis and the failure of Troika bailout packages to turn the country around. It has been useful to label Greece as “exceptional”...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Osborne’s Budget: Good For The UK, Bad for UK Assets

    After May’s surprise election victory for David Cameron’s Tories—which proved yet again that Britain is a naturally conservative country— expectations were running high for the first truly Conservative budget in the UK for almost 20 years. Yesterday, George Osborne duly delivered an impressive relaunch of British conservatism for the 21st century, in a speech self-consciously modeled on Benjamin Disraeli’s famous “One Nation” budget speeches,...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Debt-Deflation Dynamic

    Amid all the talk of contagion and demonstration effects emanating from Athens, there is a straight forward question that concerns investors whose domain spreads beyond the lapping shores of the Mediterranean: is the Greek crisis, at its root, inflationary or deflationary? Given talk of new currencies being launched, the obvious fear concerns inflation. I would demur and suggest that a deflationary shock is unfolding. This matters especially for...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Eurozone Is Not On The Brink

    When totally wrong-footed by an astonishing event that embarrassingly contradicts one’s expectations, it is tempting to seek refuge in high-flown metaphors and literary allusions, especially if this embarrassing turn of events happens in Greece. But rather than distracting attention with references to Pyrrhic Victories, Siren Voices and Labours of Hercules, let me get straight to the point and admit that my predictions about the Greek referendum...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Brighter European Dawn

    The political and economic reality is that a 40-year old political neophyte from a “peripheral” European economy has taken the eurocrats to the cleaners. It is clear that the Greek populace knew exactly what was coming and extracted €89bn of “good money” from an exceptionally incompetent European Central Bank. This pool of liquid funds should prove a key support for the next year or two, and with Greece running a primary budget surplus the...

    14
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Growth & Markets Monthly (July 2015)

    With the drama in Athens casting a pall over markets, what is the message from the Gavekal dashboard of economic and risk indicators? Overall, reasonably positive. Our main growth indicator suggests that the momentum of economic activity should pick up in the second half of the year. If correct, this would mark a repeat of the pattern seen in the last few years. Still, given the uncertainty associated with the Greek situation, there has been a...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (July 01): Manufacturing Machinations

    Overview: Charles Gave argues that the manufacturing sector remains the last bastion of proper economic data in the US, and the message being sent is not good. United States: Tan Kai Xian somewhat demurs from Charles and argues that the US manufacturing sector is unlikely to be the fountainhead of the next US recession. Europe: Central Europe has emerged as the manufacturing powerhouse of Europe at the expense of France and the southern...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Germany Is The Real Risk

    As the Greek crisis apparently reaches its climax it strikes me as odd that the default response is to seek refuge in “safe” German assets. If, as appears quite likely, the flawed euro-system really is heading into the next phase of its denouement, then German assets are the soft underbelly of the system, and they are likely to suffer most. Here is why:

    13
Show me: results