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    Gavekal Research

    The Asset Allocation Quandary of 2011

    For almost every pension fund, the single most important decision is the relative weighting of equities versus fixed income. The next challenge concerns rebalancing decisions: should one automatically rebalance to keep weights (say 50/50) on an even keel or should one tactically redeploy capital based on the freshest macro and investment environment?

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    Les Aristocrates a La Lanterne

    As the readers have probably realized by now, Marx has always been one of our heroes for a simple reason: there is no wrong idea about economic systems, political systems, human nature, or the future which he did not embrace with gusto. Finding someone else who has been so consistently wrong would be quite a challenge. But, like a broken clock, even Marx got to be right once when he wrote that “the economic infrastructure determines the...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Europe's Improving Outlook

    As we explained in our latest ad hoc (see A Four-Pillar Strategy To Investing In Europe), 2010 was a paradoxical year for Europe. The region's economic recovery surprised most observers by its strength (especially in Germany), and the financial stabilization of Eastern Europe was confirmed in spite of apocalyptical predictions by many pundits (Krugman, Rogoff, etc.). But these two encouraging developments have been almost entirely eclipsed...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Four-Pillar Strategy to Investing in Europe

    More than a year after investors had to come to terms with the fact that ‘Greece’ was not just the name of a musical with John Travolta, and after a significant redefinition of the Euro-area institutional framework, a large divergence of opinion still exists within the financial community on the level, and nature, of the remaining European risk. Even in our little firm, we find it hard to come to a consensus—not only on the near-term outlook,...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Will the German Recovery Spill Over to the South?

    The best place to get into a bubble is at ground floor, and then leave on the 8th floor before it reaches the 10th. Of course identifying a bubble at incubation is very difficult because at this stage, it does not feel bubbly and wild, but rather sensible, sober and conservative. Which brings us to Germany….

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    Gavekal Research

    The Coming German Housing Boom

    In the decade between the Asian Crisis and the US sub-prime bust, real estate in almost every Western country roared ahead. Every country except Germany where the residential real estate market scarcely budged.

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Still More Questions Than Answers in Europe

    One of the best TV shows ever produced has to be the British series "Yes Minister," where, in one episode, career bureaucrat Sir Humphrey tells Minister Jim Hacker that 'you can never be certain that something will happen until the government denies it'. With that in mind, Angela Merkel's promise yesterday that Germany will do 'whatever it takes' to save the Euro sounds somewhat hollow. For example, will...

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    Gavekal Research

    Gilts vs OATS

    In the next few years the world will see a fascinating controlled experiment in economic policy. The US and Britain, two economies with very similar structural problems and cyclical positions have started to pursue diametrically opposite fiscal policies. Britain, from this month onwards, has begun the fastest and most ambitious fiscal consolidation ever attempted by a G7 country; meanwhile political gridlock in Washington has more or less...

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    Gavekal Research

    An Easy Fed and a Strong Dollar

    Whatever central bankers may think about the rights and wrongs of Charles’s arguments about the natural rate of interest (and many official economists, especially in Europe and Japan, certainly share Charles’s concerns), the reality is that the Fed is not going to start raising interest rates in the first half of 2011. This can be almost guaranteed following last week’s disappointing non-farm payroll figures. Such is the political importance of...

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    Gavekal Research

    Is EMU Rebalancing Possible?

    As 2010 unfolded, the viability of the European monetary union project became the main ‘x-factor’ for global financial markets. And as the new year starts, we see little reason why 2011 should prove any different. Indeed, the genie is now out of the bottle and the world realizes that the Euro is a political project with significant economic costs. Worse yet for European policymakers, these economic costs are now rapidly mutating into political...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Is the Euro Low Enough to Save the PIGS?

    We have focused on strong US economic data this week, but of course the US is not the only large economy emitting signs of a solid recovery. German factory orders released yesterday remind us that Northern Europe is in solid shape, with the northern EMU members' trade competitiveness boosted by the Euro's weakening against most currencies. The Euro's real effective exchange rate-calculated by taking into account the weight of each...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Riksbank Pushes On Despite Trouble to the South

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-16.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101216.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    More Europe or Less Europe?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-14.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners101214.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The UK in 2011

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-14.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1012141.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Latvia's Rerating--A Hope for the PIGS

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-13.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1012131.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Tough Road Ahead for the UK

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-10.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101210.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Meaning of the Rise in Bond Yields

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-09.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101209.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - An EMU Crisis--and Rising Bond Yields

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-08.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1012083.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - US Sunshine Overshadows European Clouds

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-03.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1012031.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - What Could Stop the European Doomsday Machine?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-02.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101202.pdf

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