E.g., 25-02-2020
E.g., 25-02-2020
We have found 2015 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Broken Trust

    Charles likes to say that people are more likely to change their spouses than change their banks. The Greek crisis has tested this adage to the limit. For five years now, Greek banks have endured a “bank jog” of deposits out of the domestic banking system and into mattresses, foreign accounts and even bitcoins. Amazingly, however, some €130bn in household and business deposits have stayed put. But should Greek banks re-open in the near future,...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Europe: Rising Above Bedlam

    While the world has focused on the bickering and brinksmanship of the Greek bailout negotiations, activity in the rest of the eurozone has quietly been picking up pace. Economic confidence is close to its highest level in nearly three years and the composite PMI reached a four-year high of 54.2 in June. More to the point, having plunged into deflation last year, partly because of the second half’s economic soft patch and partly because of the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe's Democratic Divide

    Voters, it would seem, pose a clear and present danger to the eurozone. Syriza’s success in last weekend’s “Greferendum” shows there is only so much conventional medicine that electorates will take before looking for miracle cures. The party’s rise has mirrored the fall in Greek living standards since the financial crisis and the failure of Troika bailout packages to turn the country around. It has been useful to label Greece as “exceptional”...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Osborne’s Budget: Good For The UK, Bad for UK Assets

    After May’s surprise election victory for David Cameron’s Tories—which proved yet again that Britain is a naturally conservative country— expectations were running high for the first truly Conservative budget in the UK for almost 20 years. Yesterday, George Osborne duly delivered an impressive relaunch of British conservatism for the 21st century, in a speech self-consciously modeled on Benjamin Disraeli’s famous “One Nation” budget speeches,...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Debt-Deflation Dynamic

    Amid all the talk of contagion and demonstration effects emanating from Athens, there is a straight forward question that concerns investors whose domain spreads beyond the lapping shores of the Mediterranean: is the Greek crisis, at its root, inflationary or deflationary? Given talk of new currencies being launched, the obvious fear concerns inflation. I would demur and suggest that a deflationary shock is unfolding. This matters especially for...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Eurozone Is Not On The Brink

    When totally wrong-footed by an astonishing event that embarrassingly contradicts one’s expectations, it is tempting to seek refuge in high-flown metaphors and literary allusions, especially if this embarrassing turn of events happens in Greece. But rather than distracting attention with references to Pyrrhic Victories, Siren Voices and Labours of Hercules, let me get straight to the point and admit that my predictions about the Greek referendum...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Brighter European Dawn

    The political and economic reality is that a 40-year old political neophyte from a “peripheral” European economy has taken the eurocrats to the cleaners. It is clear that the Greek populace knew exactly what was coming and extracted €89bn of “good money” from an exceptionally incompetent European Central Bank. This pool of liquid funds should prove a key support for the next year or two, and with Greece running a primary budget surplus the...

    14
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Growth & Markets Monthly (July 2015)

    With the drama in Athens casting a pall over markets, what is the message from the Gavekal dashboard of economic and risk indicators? Overall, reasonably positive. Our main growth indicator suggests that the momentum of economic activity should pick up in the second half of the year. If correct, this would mark a repeat of the pattern seen in the last few years. Still, given the uncertainty associated with the Greek situation, there has been a...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (July 01): Manufacturing Machinations

    Overview: Charles Gave argues that the manufacturing sector remains the last bastion of proper economic data in the US, and the message being sent is not good. United States: Tan Kai Xian somewhat demurs from Charles and argues that the US manufacturing sector is unlikely to be the fountainhead of the next US recession. Europe: Central Europe has emerged as the manufacturing powerhouse of Europe at the expense of France and the southern...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Germany Is The Real Risk

    As the Greek crisis apparently reaches its climax it strikes me as odd that the default response is to seek refuge in “safe” German assets. If, as appears quite likely, the flawed euro-system really is heading into the next phase of its denouement, then German assets are the soft underbelly of the system, and they are likely to suffer most. Here is why:

    13
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Greferendum And The Markets

    Contrary to most of this morning’s headlines, the astonishing weekend events in Greece will almost certainly prove bullish for risk assets around the world and especially in Europe. The European market mayhem triggered by Alexis Tsipras’ bizarre referendum announcement (which Greek officials only found out about through Twitter in the midst of a negotiating session with the Troika in Brussels) seems reminiscent of the panics about US politics...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Europe: Central Europe Takes All

    Let’s start with a shocking figure: almost 80% of the additional value-adding activity created by the EU industrial sector in the last 10 years took place in Germany (47%), Austria (4%) and central and eastern European economies (28%). This obviously exceeds the weight of these countries in Europe’s economy (27%). But why has the locus of manufacturing shifted so radically and rapidly to Central Europe?

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The UK’s Sweet Spot

    Is the UK economy running out of steam? Growth slowed to just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of this year. That was the slowest for more than two years, and a reminder that while businesses have employed more workers, headline productivity growth has all but stalled. The fear now is that with the tightening labor market pushing up wages, poor productivity will lead to slower real growth, making it harder for the UK to attract...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hedging The Unknown

    As Athens and its creditors inch painfully towards a deal that should see the release of fresh bailout funds, the probability that Greece will be unceremoniously ejected from the eurozone is diminishing. Grexit has never been Gavekal’s core scenario, however I have long held the view that while the chances of a Greek exit may have been relatively small, the damage it would have inflicted on financial markets would have been disproportionately...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why Athens Has No Choice

    The main actors in the Greek crisis seem happy to choreograph an ending with this week’s “last ditch” negotiations to be followed on Monday by a “final” summit of European Union leaders. Adding to the theatre, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will today meet Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, where talks will presumably focus on the basis for co-operation and financial support between the two nations in the event of Grexit. Our view remains...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Greek Default Would Trigger Regime Change, Not Grexit

    As Greece moves inexorably towards default, the big news from the markets is not contagion but the opposite—the remarkable lack of response in the euro exchange rate ($1.125 today compared to $1.123 the day before January’s Greek election) and sovereign bond spreads in the Club Med (BTP-bund spread today is 150bp, against 120bp on January 23). Is this just a case of investor complacency and wishful thinking, like the period prior to Lehman? Or...

    16
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (June 17): Bond Market Shakeout

    Overview: Charles Gave argues that the lack of market-making capacity in the financial sector means that the next big market move could be highly disorderly. United States: 10-year Treasuries look overvalued on a fundamental basis, but don’t expect an immediate correction says Tan Kai Xian. Europe: German bond yields have had a roller coaster ride of late so François Chauchat checks in to reassess their valuation anchors. China: From a standing...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Efficiency, Capital And Bond Market Spreads

    In the “good old days” much of the capital deployed in financial markets was devoted to making markets work better. Until the mid-1980s investment banks were often partnerships whose capital was directly owned by the partners. On occasions when a disorderly market emerged that capital was “put to work”, sometimes for just a few minutes—profitability was very high. Such capital was often “owned” by a family such as the Rothschilds, Barings or...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Europe: A Quick Tour Of Bund Valuation Anchors

    With 10-year Bund yields collapsing to almost 0% and then surging to 1% in a few months, the German bond market seems to have lost its valuation anchor. The launch of a massive quantitative easing operation by the European Central Bank, and then the violent unwinding of positions by investors who had front-run this program explains most of these erratic moves. But, after the storm, are German bonds cheap or expensive? We make a quick tour of the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    From Farce To Irrelevance

    The good news is that a Greek default, which has become more likely after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ provocative rejection of what he described as the “absurd” bailout offer by Greece’s creditors, no longer poses a serious threat to the rest of Europe. The bad news is that Tsipras does not seem to understand this. To judge by Tsipras’ belligerence, he firmly believes that Europe needs Greece as desperately as Greece needs Europe. This is the...

    3
Show me: results