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E.g., 26-10-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Back On The Road Again

    In the last couple of weeks Louis has been on the road, meeting clients face-to-face for the first time in 18 months. In this report, he distills some of the spirit of those conversations, addressing hot button topics from the sharp run-up in energy and commodity prices, through China’s economic slowdown, to the increase in tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Wage-Price Nexus

    Data released on Wednesday showed that Germany’s producer price inflation accelerated to 14.2% year-on-year in September. That’s not only faster than consensus expectations of 12.8%, it’s the fastest since November 1974 in the immediate aftermath of the oil price shock.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Typhoon Season For Hong Kong

    Hong Kong is sticking to its zero-Covid policies, complete with a travel ban on outsiders and Draconian quarantine rules for returning residents, even as Singapore tentatively reopens to international arrivals. In this video interview, Vincent explains what is driving Hong Kong’s uncompromising stance on Covid. He assesses whether it will damage the city’s standing as a regional financial center, and whether doubts over the status of China...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Energy And The Euro’s Exchange Rate

    It will come as news to no one that energy prices and exchange rates are intimately connected. Historically, over the last 20 years, the euro has tended to be positively correlated with the price of oil, while the broad US dollar exchange rate has tended to be inversely correlated. So, over the first half of 2008 as the price of oil surged to a record high, the euro hit its all-time high against the US dollar. And in 2014 as the oil price...

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — September 2021

    In our recent London seminar, Thomas Gatley addressed China's changed business environment and Tom Miller unpicked US-China geopolitical tensions. Charles Gave and Anatole resumed their dialogue about the future of the world economy in their first in-person sparring session since the pandemic started.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Entente Discordiale

    As if a tight labor market, rising inflation and widespread fuel shortages weren’t enough to contend with, the United Kingdom is also seeing a sharp deterioration in its relations with the European Union, and France especially. Nick examines what worsening cross-Channel relations could mean for the economies of the UK and EU.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    What, Me Worry?

    There is a growing drumbeat of commentary arguing that today’s shortages of everything from microchips to natural gas must end in an inflationary blowout and a return to the lascivious 1970s. Anatole thinks that today’s shortages are likely to correct relatively quickly, and for investors the coming period is more likely to resemble the 1950s.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Price Of Policy

    Wherever you look, energy prices are shooting up, and shortages abound. The global economy, it seems, is in the grip of a full-blown energy crisis. Drill down, and it appears this is not one crisis, but many. The effects—worsening shortages and surging prices—are much the same in differentregions. But the immediate causes of the crunch seem to differ widely.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Fixing Italy

    The results of this weekend's municipal elections in Italy look to have buttressed Mario Draghi’s national unity government, which is half way through an ambitious overhaul of core institutions that have failed the country for decades. With 70% of Italians favoring Draghi’s initiative, and no general election due until mid-2023, the betting is that he gets to finish the job.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Coming UK Recession

    Thursday saw UK GDP growth for 2Q21 revised up to a perky 5.5% from a previous 4.8%. Yet all is not well in shortage-plagued Britain. While other economies facesupply chain disruption and energy shortages, the “just in time” UK economy looks to be facing a perfect inflationary storm that could deliver a recession in 2022.

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    Gavekal Research

    Avoiding Sequels

    Like many other parents, Louis has seen his share of kids' movie sequels, which unfortunately fall much too short of the of the first installment. This reminds him of two “curve-balls” that investors are now having to digest. The first is the China Evergrande debt debacle. The second is the looming shortage of energy across most of the industrialized world.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    After The German Election

    The results of this Sunday’s German federal election are unlikely to generate any shocks when markets reopen on Monday. Nonetheless, the precise colors of the coalition that eventually emerges will matter a great deal to investors. Cedric reviews the possible coalition compositions and outlines what they will mean for fiscal policy, European integration and China.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: European Course Correction, Or Steady On Ahead?

    Germans will soon go to the polls, while the European Central Bank has denied media reports that it is considering raising interest rates early. In other words, there is no shortage of news and events that may make markets jittery. In this webinar our Europe team attempt to make sense of it all and plot Europe’s likely fiscal and monetary course.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Anglosphere Doubles Down

    The “Aukus” security partnership sparked a diplomatic explosion when it was unveiled by Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States last week. As the smoke clears, America’s strategy to counter China is becoming clear. But the diplomatic fallout from Aukus also reflects a new reality. How does Europe fit into this brave new world, and how will China respond?

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    Gavekal Research

    Investing In Today’s Inflationary Environment

    Investing in a topsy-turvy macro environment can feel like a crapshoot. One way to seek order among chaos is to draw lessons from economic history. Louis examines the underlying causes of financial crises since the late 1990s and applies the lessons to consider the way in which the global economy and markets emerge from the pandemic.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Energy Headwinds

    The United Kingdom got a sharp lesson in the perils of energy dependence on Wednesday. A fire shut down its imports of electricity—mostly nuclear-generated—from France, pushing domestic natural gas prices up by as much as 20% in intraday trading. The fire may keep as much as a third of the UK’s capacity to import power from France closed through the winter months. Given that the UK has the capacity to import 3MW from France and on average...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The High Cost Of Free Money, Revisited

    It’s now more than 10 years since Charles published a seminal paper titled The High Cost Of Free Money, in which he argued that free-market capitalism could not function properly without a free-market-determined cost of capital. Today it’s clear that capital markets, at least, can continue to operate, but Charles argues this has created very little new wealth.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Economics Of Germany's Election

    Ahead of Germany’s election in a couple of weeks, the center-left Social Democratic Party has recently climbed up the polls to eclipse the previously dominant Christian Democratic Union. If the polling is right, the SPD is likely to form a coalition government with Germany’s smaller parties. Nick breaks out the tea leaves to see what a political shift is likely to mean.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: Understanding China's Regulatory Crackdown

    Even by China’s high standards, 2021 has seen an extraordinary amount of government intervention in the economy, as top leader Xi Jinping moves aggressively to implement his vision of national greatness. In this webinar our China team assess the impact on the economy and markets, and discuss what could cause this crackdown to pause or reverse.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A British Fix To Housing

    For decades, urban England has had an under-supplied and over-bought housing market. UK governments of all political stripes have tried and failed to unblock building pipelines. Britain is hardly alone in having seen home prices rocket due to pandemic effects, but there was a grim inevitability to UK home prices rising 13% in the last year. Yet, at the same juncture, there is evidence that a mixture of decent policymaking and smart market...

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