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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The EMU's Ides of March?

    January saw decidedly improving investor sentiment in Europe, with narrowing PIIGS spreads and a strengthening Euro. However, over the past two weeks, this trend has stalled, with spreads now widening again and the Euro trading lower. This could be related to the impending deadline for the final stability plan. March looms, and in March the EU is expected to reveal details of its final back-stop—whether and when there will be any haircuts,...

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    GaveKal Daily - Shedding Some Light on Turkey's Unorthodox Monetary Policy

    Understanding the real intentions of monetary policymakers has become an even tougher task than usual in these post-crisis times. One example of this can be found in Turkey, where a number of recent monetary actions appear quite contradictory. Despite booming economic growth and worrying global inflationary pressures on food and energy, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has cut its policy rates twice since December. At the same...

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    GaveKal Daily - The Questions Central Bankers Have to Be Debating

    The surprise resignations of Axel Weber from the ECB and Kevin Warsh from the FOMC do leave the outside observer thinking that debates within the halls of these powerful institutions must be rather spirited. As they should following two years of unprecedented activism, even the most unbiased and dispassionate of observers (which we rarely claim to be!) are left with the following quandaries:

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    Is a Greek Sovereign Default Unavoidable?

    As colorfully expressed last year in an essay by Michael Lewis (see Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds), the idea that Greece can pull off an aggressive fiscal consolidation and economic reform often faces amused rebuttal. Based on the valuation of Greek bonds, the market currently believes that reversing the Greek debt trap will prove to be an impossible mission. Even the already substantial reforms on which Greece has embarked under the thumb of...

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    GaveKal Daily - Strong News and Stronger Markets

    With snow hitting the Super Bowl in Dallas, there is little doubt that we are in the midst of a severe winter. And of course, in winter, bears hibernate. Which is just as well, for bears have little to munch on right now: economic activity is bouncing back strongly, jobs are being created (albeit at a slow pace), global trade is soaring, the great majority of companies are reporting better than expected sales, and US profit margins are making...

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    The Franco-German Compromise

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    The ECB Hikes Rates Without Making Headlines

    Whether Fed and the ECB move together, or apart, matters greatly to forex rates. Bernanke and Trichet both responded to the global crisis by flooding their banking systems with excess reserves, thus driving overnight interbank rates down near their respective ‘floor rates,’ the rate paid by central banks for deposits of excess reserves. With the floor rate set at 0.25% in both systems, the short rate spread thus became negligible. However, one...

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    A Dovish Fed, a Dovish ECB and a Dovish BoE

    Despite the demands for tighter monetary policy now emanating from an unholy alliance of the Chinese Politburo, the Tea Party, the Bundesbank and the Wall Street Journal, last week the Fed and the ECB made clear that early rate hikes are not on their agenda (though Will argues on page five that the ECB may be tighter than it appears). And the Bank of England is likely to send the same message after Thursday’s meeting of the MPC. So why are the...

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    The Hi-Octane Promise of Russia's Market

    The quicker than expected revival of East European growth (see A Four-Pillar Strategy to Investing in Europe) is good news for European companies, who sell much more to emerging EMEA than to China or even to Asia as a whole. And within the emerging EMEA, Russia’s consumer market is the main draw. Even one of Russia’s most protected industries—automobiles—still offers massive potential:

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    GaveKal Daily - A Ricardian Debate on the Back of the UK's Poor GDP Numbers

    Of the many debates currently animating our internal meetings, the most passionate must be the one between Charles and Anatole on whether increases, or cutbacks, in government spending are harmful or helpful for economic recovery.

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    The Rebound in European Velocity

    As the year begins, European financial markets have already rallied much more than most imagined possible. Interestingly, this is occurring while no new concrete decision has been taken by EU leaders on the crisis front. So is the rally a classic case of short covering?

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    Gavekal Research

    Inflation is China’s Problem, Not the Fed’s

    If there is a contrary indicator even more reliable than a cover-story in The Economist or Time Magazine, it is the mood at the World Economic Forum, which begins this Wednesday in Davos. Last year the “spirit of Davos” was focused mainly on whether the global economic recovery would be sustainable, whether central banks and governments would tighten their monetary and fiscal policies prematurely, and whether the euro would be blown up by street...

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    The Asset Allocation Quandary of 2011

    For almost every pension fund, the single most important decision is the relative weighting of equities versus fixed income. The next challenge concerns rebalancing decisions: should one automatically rebalance to keep weights (say 50/50) on an even keel or should one tactically redeploy capital based on the freshest macro and investment environment?

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    Les Aristocrates a La Lanterne

    As the readers have probably realized by now, Marx has always been one of our heroes for a simple reason: there is no wrong idea about economic systems, political systems, human nature, or the future which he did not embrace with gusto. Finding someone else who has been so consistently wrong would be quite a challenge. But, like a broken clock, even Marx got to be right once when he wrote that “the economic infrastructure determines the...

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    GaveKal Daily - Europe's Improving Outlook

    As we explained in our latest ad hoc (see A Four-Pillar Strategy To Investing In Europe), 2010 was a paradoxical year for Europe. The region's economic recovery surprised most observers by its strength (especially in Germany), and the financial stabilization of Eastern Europe was confirmed in spite of apocalyptical predictions by many pundits (Krugman, Rogoff, etc.). But these two encouraging developments have been almost entirely eclipsed...

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    A Four-Pillar Strategy to Investing in Europe

    More than a year after investors had to come to terms with the fact that ‘Greece’ was not just the name of a musical with John Travolta, and after a significant redefinition of the Euro-area institutional framework, a large divergence of opinion still exists within the financial community on the level, and nature, of the remaining European risk. Even in our little firm, we find it hard to come to a consensus—not only on the near-term outlook,...

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    GaveKal Daily - Will the German Recovery Spill Over to the South?

    The best place to get into a bubble is at ground floor, and then leave on the 8th floor before it reaches the 10th. Of course identifying a bubble at incubation is very difficult because at this stage, it does not feel bubbly and wild, but rather sensible, sober and conservative. Which brings us to Germany….

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    Gavekal Research

    The Coming German Housing Boom

    In the decade between the Asian Crisis and the US sub-prime bust, real estate in almost every Western country roared ahead. Every country except Germany where the residential real estate market scarcely budged.

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Still More Questions Than Answers in Europe

    One of the best TV shows ever produced has to be the British series "Yes Minister," where, in one episode, career bureaucrat Sir Humphrey tells Minister Jim Hacker that 'you can never be certain that something will happen until the government denies it'. With that in mind, Angela Merkel's promise yesterday that Germany will do 'whatever it takes' to save the Euro sounds somewhat hollow. For example, will...

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    Gilts vs OATS

    In the next few years the world will see a fascinating controlled experiment in economic policy. The US and Britain, two economies with very similar structural problems and cyclical positions have started to pursue diametrically opposite fiscal policies. Britain, from this month onwards, has begun the fastest and most ambitious fiscal consolidation ever attempted by a G7 country; meanwhile political gridlock in Washington has more or less...

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    Gavekal Research

    An Easy Fed and a Strong Dollar

    Whatever central bankers may think about the rights and wrongs of Charles’s arguments about the natural rate of interest (and many official economists, especially in Europe and Japan, certainly share Charles’s concerns), the reality is that the Fed is not going to start raising interest rates in the first half of 2011. This can be almost guaranteed following last week’s disappointing non-farm payroll figures. Such is the political importance of...

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    Is EMU Rebalancing Possible?

    As 2010 unfolded, the viability of the European monetary union project became the main ‘x-factor’ for global financial markets. And as the new year starts, we see little reason why 2011 should prove any different. Indeed, the genie is now out of the bottle and the world realizes that the Euro is a political project with significant economic costs. Worse yet for European policymakers, these economic costs are now rapidly mutating into political...

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    GaveKal Daily - Is the Euro Low Enough to Save the PIGS?

    We have focused on strong US economic data this week, but of course the US is not the only large economy emitting signs of a solid recovery. German factory orders released yesterday remind us that Northern Europe is in solid shape, with the northern EMU members' trade competitiveness boosted by the Euro's weakening against most currencies. The Euro's real effective exchange rate-calculated by taking into account the weight of each...

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    GaveKal Daily - The Riksbank Pushes On Despite Trouble to the South

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-16.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101216.pdf

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    More Europe or Less Europe?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-14.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners101214.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The UK in 2011

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-14.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1012141.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Latvia's Rerating--A Hope for the PIGS

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-13.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1012131.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Tough Road Ahead for the UK

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-10.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101210.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - The Meaning of the Rise in Bond Yields

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-09.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101209.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - An EMU Crisis--and Rising Bond Yields

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-08.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1012083.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - US Sunshine Overshadows European Clouds

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-03.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1012031.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - What Could Stop the European Doomsday Machine?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-02.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101202.pdf

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    A New Idea to Save the Euro

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-02.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment1012021.pdf

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    QSCB - 1Q11 - Where Will Earnings Growth Be Found?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-01.You can download it here: GKQuarterlyStrategy101201.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Intriguing Inability of Safe-Haven Bonds to Rally on EMU Crisis

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-30.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101130.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    EMU Debt Crisis, Part III

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-29.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment1011291.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-29.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1011292.pdf

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    The Euro Debate, Part II

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-26.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment101126.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - Don't Miss the Global Growth Story

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-25.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1011252.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - Silver Linings in an Increasingly Dark Sky

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-24.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101124.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - From Sovereign Crisis to Banking Crisis

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-22.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101122.pdf

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    Opportunities and Bubbles in Cleantech VC

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-22.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners10112210.pdf

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    Italy, PIGS and the Systemic Elasticity

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-19.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment1011191.pdf

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    Who is the Better Card Player?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-17.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment101117.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - High Stakes

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-17.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101117.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Is the Strong Euro a Threat for the Eurozone?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-16.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners101116.pdf

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    Misleading Averages

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-16.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011161.pdf

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    The Baltic Resurgence

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-16.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011163.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Virtue of Knowing What's in the Sausage

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-16.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011164.pdf

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    What If Ireland Taps the EU Emergency Fund?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-12.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment101112.pdf

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    Policy Mix and Volatility

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-03.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners101103.pdf

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    The Debate Over QE2

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-03.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011032.pdf

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    The German Call, Bernanke Put and Profitability

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-03.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011033.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Long Gilt, Short Treasuries Trade

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-03.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011034.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - Revisiting Europe's New Export Champions

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-02.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1011022.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - In This Recovery the Difference is Corporate Profitability

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-01.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101101.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - Things Have Changed Since Jackson Hole

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-28.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101028.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - The UK's Strong GDP Figures

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-27.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101027.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - Signs of a US-China Detente

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-25.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101025.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - The Global Tea Party Movement?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-22.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101022.pdf

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    The True Weight of Governments

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-19.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners101019.pdf

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    The Circle of Manipulation Lives On

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-19.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101019.pdf

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    The Four Merits of Russia's Accession to WTO

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-19.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010192.pdf

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    Britain's Quantitative Easing

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-19.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010193.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - Battle Lines Are Drawn in France

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-19.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1010191.pdf

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    Has the Euro Proven Itself?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-19.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment101019.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Growth - Dispersion and Sentiment

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-13.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101013.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - Love and Disdain in the FX Markets

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-06.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101006.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Is the SEK Rally Really Sustainable?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-05.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010054.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - The Strength of the Euro

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-30.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1009301.pdf

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    Property, Policy and Politics in Korea

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-27.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009274.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - The German Dilemma and Europe's Fat Tail Risk

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-20.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100920.pdf

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    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book 4Q10 - The Age of Economic Dispersion

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-17.You can download it here: GKQuarterlyStrategy1009173.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - The Questions Behind the JPY Intervention

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-15.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100915.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - More RMB Action as Political Tensions Rise

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-13.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100913.pdf

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    How the World Works

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-10.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment1009101.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - Renewed Fears on Ireland

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-07.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100907.pdf

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    How Low Will US Housing Go?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-06.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009062.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Multiple Bond Sell Signals

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-06.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009066.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - Sweden, the Output Gap and Global Bond Valuations

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-03.You can download it here: GKEnergyWeekly100903.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The End of German Deflation

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-01.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment1009011.pdf

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    The Sustainability of Wind

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-27.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment1008271.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - In Which Direction Will the Next Panic Come?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-23.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100823.pdf

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    A US$2,000bn Rebalancing

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-09.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1008091.pdf

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    Back to Work

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-09.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1008092.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Breaking the Curse?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-09.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1008093.pdf

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    The German Question

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-09.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1008094.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Where Do European Profits Come From?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-06.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100806.pdf

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    Discussing the European Outperformance

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-05.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment100805.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Is It Still Time to Overweight Europe?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-03.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment100803.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Europe's Outperformance and Strong Data

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-26.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100726.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - A Worrying Development

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-19.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100719.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Less Cyclical Korea

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-19.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1007192.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Cocorico

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-14.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1007141.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Competitive Euro

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-12.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners100712.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The New Export Champions

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-07.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment1007072.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Confusion of Problems

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-07.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1007071.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Credit Easing, Part Deux

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-05.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100705.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Britian Starts First

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-05.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners100705.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    On Euro Purchasing Power

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-05.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1007052.pdf

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