Gavekal Research

Anatole Kaletsky

Jul 02nd 2019

Record-high US equity prices seem hard to reconcile with the message sent by the lowest bond yields since 2016. Should investors hunker down due to the inverted yield curve, or jump aboard the equity bandwagon? In fact, both markets may be right in their own way.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave

Jun 19th 2019

Earlier this year, Louis and Charles published a book whose main thesis was that an era of globalization is ending and the world is breaking into three separate economic zones.The question Louis addresses in this piece is how investors should play this macro shift. Those strategies that did best over the last decade are unlikely to outperform in the next period.

Gavekal Research

Anatole Kaletsky

Jun 13th 2019

The US economic expansion is entering its 11th year, which makes some wonder whether the end of the business cycle is nigh. Anatole thinks that’s asking the wrong question, because bull markets don’t die of old age. They are, however, more susceptible to diseases of old age. He identifies three events that would cause an economy to keel over. Also on the docket is the seemingly contradictory signals sent by bullish US equity markets and bearish...

Gavekal Research

Charles Gave

Jun 05th 2019

The eurozone's main banking index is back at a key threshold that over recent decades has seen large-scale intervention by global central banks. For Charles, the root of the problem lies in the deteriorating Italian economy. In this video interview, he explains this dependence and argues that this time there may be no explicit support coming for the banking sector.

Gavekal Research

Nick Andrews, Cedric Gemehl

May 31st 2019

There is a big disconnect between markets and reported data in the eurozone. Bund yields are within a whisker of all time lows, inflation expectations have cratered and the Eurostoxx banks index fell -12.5% in May. Yet at the same, Europe’s macro data, while not great, points to stabilization after a 16-month industrial downturn.

Gavekal Research

Cedric Gemehl

May 28th 2019

The European Parliament elections saw established parties pummeled, but the political center broadly hold out against the forces of nationalist-populism. In this video interview, Cedric considers what that means for investors and how systemic European risk should now be understood.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave

May 24th 2019

Thursday was an ugly day for global equity markets, with losses that brought total returns on US equities almost back to their January 2018 level, and non-US equities to the brink of bear market territory. It is hard to shake the feeling that the investment environment has changed. What lessons should we draw from the tumultuous trading session?

Gavekal Research

Anatole Kaletsky

May 22nd 2019

When something unexpected happens and the market moves against you, it is usually best to cut your losses. But sometimes it is worth indulging the contrarian instinct. This month most of the pound's gains in the first quarter have been given up and sterling’s position looks dicey. But sterling bulls should not cut their losses. In fact, they should consider doubling down.

Gavekal Research

Cedric Gemehl

May 21st 2019

This week EU voters will elect representatives to a legislature that has often been dubbed a snooze fest. That has changed as populist-nationalist parties challenge the established organs of government. Cedric gives a detailed explanation of how politics works at a supra-national level in Europe, and how current tensions are changing the key institutions.