E.g., 28-09-2021
E.g., 28-09-2021
We have found 2319 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Inflation And Its Global Impacts

    Markets have been roiled by rising US inflation that seems to be returning sooner than expected, and similar inflationary dynamics are starting to be seen in Europe. Our team of analysts addressed the inflation outlook in the US, Europe and emerging markets, and offered views on what it means for asset prices in these markets.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Is It Gold’s Turn To Shine?

    Over the last year, the bubbles have just rolled on from one exciting asset to the next, with investors wondering which will follow. In this note, Louis explains why he thinks gold may be the next one.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Not So Much Inflation, More Fiscal Dominance

    So far, the great inflation debate has centered on the United States. Europe has barely figured. That’s not surprising; although inflation and bond yields are both ticking higher in the eurozone, the levels are modest and the increases moderate compared with those in the US. Nevertheless, there is a debate in Europe concerning the European Central Bank’s policy priorities.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Q&A On The Inflation/Deflation Debate

    Last week Louis argued that each time inflation looked set to rear its head over the last 35 years, the global economy encountered a deflationary event. Yet today it’s not clear where a countervailing deflationary hit might come from. His report triggered some interesting back-and-forth with clients, and in this piece he replies to the key points raised.

    15
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Heading For The Med

    “Sell in May and go away,” has long been a popular adage in Europe, a continent renowned for its predilection for long summer holidays by the Mediterranean. Last year, however, “sell in May” would have proved disastrous as an investment strategy. This year too investors should treat the old saw with circumspection.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Semiconductor Endgame

    It is increasingly clear that shortages of semiconductors are both more widespread and intractable than first thought. In the near term, the fear is of cascading disruption along the Asian electronics value chain. In the medium term, however, it is possible that massive supply responses create a glut of chips that causes prices to eventually crater.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Future Of Chips Is Overcapacity

    Semiconductors are tough to come by these days, and the shortage will be deep and long-lasting. Yet chips are about to turn into more of a commoditized product, just as companies make huge investments in production capacity and governments spend big to achieve self-sufficiency on national security grounds. This will lead to permanent excess capacity.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Chill In EU-China Relations

    Hailed as a breakthrough when it was struck back in December, the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement On Investment is in trouble, with little chance the deal will be ratified in the European Parliament amid a deep deterioration in bilateral relations. Nick examines what the political frost means for the earnings of European companies operating in China.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Ricardian Growth Is Fragile, Schumpeterian Growth Is Anti-Fragile

    Capitalism works well when activity is undertaken using David Ricardo’s law of comparative advantage and Joseph Schumpeter’s process of creative destruction. Charles argues that an era of Ricardian growth for many countries and industries is running out of road and the drivers of Schumpeterian economic transformation are shifting.

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Post-Brexit Britain

    Some long-term investors do seem to be worried that a breakup of the United Kingdom could add another element of uncertainty to what I described last year as the “triple whammy” of Brexit, Covid and the British Treasury’s surprising flirtation with tax increases and premature fiscal tightening. It now appears, however, that only one of these concerns is really justified.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Global Pivot To The Indo-Pacific

    The Indo-Pacific is at the heart of global geopolitics today. The US, UK, and European Union are all shifting their attention east. Tom argues that the new treatment of the Indian and Pacific Oceans as a single, connected space reflects a key shift in managing China’s regional power. The impact will be felt in both strategic and economic terms.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, May 2021

    Joe Biden's enormous fiscal initiatives mark a potential sea change in the US government’s role in the economy. They may yet get watered down as the US president negotiates with more conservative members of his party, but tax and spend is clearly the new mantra in Washington DC. The question for investors is what this means for assets in the US and around the world.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: French-Language Webinar, May 2021

    As the US and Europe begin to emerge from the pandemic, Louis assesses the key relationships in global markets, Cedric asks whether Europe will have a summer this year and what the economic effects will be and Didier presents the “Yellow Jacket” multiplier, as he introduces a new asset allocation tool.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Fighting Europe’s Headwinds

    Last Thursday, Nick Andrews and I argued that Europe’s economic recovery is set to defy dire predictions. The fly in the ointment, we argued, was a weakening in Europe’s hitherto robust manufacturing sector. Such concerns deepened on Friday, as more evidence emerged of slowing industrial activity. So does this headwind need to be taken more seriously?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe Surprising On the Upside

    Europe may not yet have the pandemic in the rear-view mirror but infection rates in most countries are falling, vaccinations are surprising on the upside and a full opening of most services this summer seems likely. Since expectations for the eurozone remain constrained, there is a good chance that its yield curves soon steepen and the single currency strengthens.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Taxing Capital

    Next week Joe Biden will set out plans to double the rate of capital gains tax for Americans making over US$1mn a year. The president’s proposal is the latest element of his initiative to levy higher taxes, from one direction or another, on the elusive earnings of multinational corporations and wealthy individuals in order to help fund higher government spending. Whatever the political merits of Biden’s plan, his multi-pronged approach will be...

    13
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Discontinuity Risk In A Bipolar World

    For the first time in generations, the world now has two economic poles—the US and China. And they are following diametrically opposed monetary and fiscal policies. US policy is as Keynesian as you can get, while China has read the book on Wicksell and is turning restrictive. This divergence is the single most important challenge investors face today.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trading The Vaccination S-Curve

    Vaccination programs around the world have gotten off the ground at widely varying speeds. But everywhere they tend to follow a similar S-curve trajectory. While most countries are still in the early stages of their vaccination programs, a very few are in their late stages, where the S-curves begin to flatten. Their experience provides an investible roadmap.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Doom Loop? What Doom Loop?

    Ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting this Thursday, there has been the usual chatter about what the ECB can do to alleviate stresses in the eurozone’s financial markets. This is unsurprising, given that Covid infection rates remain stubbornly high in several of the bloc’s leading economies, and that peripheral spreads have widened in recent weeks, with the Italian 10-year spread over bunds increasing by some 10bp.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Asset Allocation Amid Low Interest Rates

    Charles Gave likes to say he is a rules-based investor, and he’s never been short of ideas. In this webinar, Charles and Gavekal TrackMacro’s Didier Darcet presented their latest work on portfolio construction, including a tool to help fixed-income managers to get satisfactory returns despite punitively low yields.

    0
Show me: results