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E.g., 17-07-2019
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    Gavekal Research

    Brexit And The UK Trade Deficit

    The UK has long run a large goods trade deficit with its main trading partners. However, Charles argues that this ”deficit” should really be seen as two different deficits; one is with the world excluding the eurozone, and the other with the eurozone itself. Splitting them makes sense as they have different origins and react to different forces.

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    Gavekal Research

    Boris Johnson And The Pound

    With Boris Johnson’s almost inevitable enthronement as British prime minister only a week away, it is a good time to review the recommendation to buy sterling and sell UK government bonds which I first made in January, and repeated in April and again in late May.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call July 2019

    In yesterday’s Gavekal Research conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Arthur Kroeber conducted a mid-year review of the investment environment and outlined their expectations for the rest of the year onward.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Beijing's Backdoor Into Europe

    The new enthusiasm of some European countries for China’s infrastructure-building Belt and Road Initiative has raised alarm across the continent. Brussels fears China is buying influence in Europe’s periphery, sowing disunity and threatening democracy. Our latest in-depth DeepChina report explains the real story of China’s influence on Europe.

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    Gavekal Research

    France's Industrial Resilience

    France is bucking the downturn in European—and global—industry. In May, French industrial production confounded expectations by rising an impressive 4% year-on-year. And crucially, French industry is creating jobs again after a brutal 17-year contraction. Cedric examines the reasons for France’s industrial health.

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    Gavekal Research

    An Investment Thesis For The 2020s

    A look back at the last 50 years shows that the dominant conviction among investors at the end of each decade about what would drive markets over the following decade was invariably wrong. With this in mind, and on the basis that avoiding losers is easier work than picking winners, Louis asks what beliefs dominate investors’ minds today, and how they are likely to be proved wrong in the 2020s.

    12
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    Gavekal Research

    Betting Against The Gods Is Now Impossible

    Recently I made my usual remark to a European client about the stupidity of negative interest rates. My host told me a sobering story. He manages a pension fund and received a call by a regulator who said funds shouldn't hold too much cash because it's risky. Rather, they should buy long-dated bonds, regardless of the fact they're sure to lose money.

    13
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    Gavekal Research

    An Asymmetric Opportunity In BTPs

    The yield on 10-year BTPs has fallen below 2% for the first time since Italy’s populist government took office, yet investors continue to demand high premiums to hold Italian debt. Given that the cost of servicing this debt has fallen, and upcoming ratings reviews, there is a likelihood that BTP yields will converge further towards Portuguese and Spanish yields.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Meaning Of The EU's New Lineup

    After three days of intense maneuver and counter-maneuver, on Tuesday the European Union’s heads of government announced their choice of names to lead the EU’s central institutions for the coming years. The result is a remarkable clean sweep for the favored candidates of French president Emmanuel Macron.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Should We Believe Equities, Or Bonds?

    Record-high US equity prices seem hard to reconcile with the message sent by the lowest bond yields since 2016. Should investors hunker down due to the inverted yield curve, or jump aboard the equity bandwagon? In fact, both markets may be right in their own way.

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    Gavekal Research

    Trade War II, The Dollar And Gold

    After the opening Twitter salvo in "Trade War II" by Donald Trump in May, markets have reacted quite differently from "Trade War I" in the spring of 2018. This time, the Federal Reserve is sounding more dovish, US bond yields have fallen back to 2%, the dollar seems to be rolling over, and gold and EMs are doing well. This raises the question whether the investment environment is changing before our eyes.

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    Investing For A New Cold War

    Earlier this year, Louis and Charles published a book whose main thesis was that an era of globalization is ending and the world is breaking into three separate economic zones.The question Louis addresses in this piece is how investors should play this macro shift. Those strategies that did best over the last decade are unlikely to outperform in the next period.

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    The ECB After Draghi

    At the ECB's annual shindig in Portugal this week, two questions matter. Given negative interest rates and capital key constraints over asset purchases, how does the ECB fight the next downturn? And who will replace Mario Draghi? His successor must be politically cunning if they are to persuade Europe’s leaders that monetary policy is reaching its limits, and fiscal policy must take the strain.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Bull Markets Don't Die Of Old Age

    The US economic expansion is entering its 11th year, which makes some wonder whether the end of the business cycle is nigh. Anatole thinks that’s asking the wrong question, because bull markets don’t die of old age. They are, however, more susceptible to diseases of old age. He identifies three events that would cause an economy to keel over. Also on the docket is the seemingly contradictory signals sent by bullish US equity markets and bearish...

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    Gavekal Research

    The ECB Reloads

    The ECB may hope for the best, but it is preparing for the worst. As Mario Draghi prepares to hand over the ECB’s reins to an undecided successor, he seems to be restocking its armory.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Italy And Europe's Banking Problem

    The eurozone's main banking index is back at a key threshold that over recent decades has seen large-scale intervention by global central banks. For Charles, the root of the problem lies in the deteriorating Italian economy. In this video interview, he explains this dependence and argues that this time there may be no explicit support coming for the banking sector.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Who Suffers Most In A Long Trade War?

    Markets have started to price in a long US-China trade and tech war, and we agree. The odds now favor an indefinite conflict. Damage from the trade war will vary based on a country’s trade-dependency and policy space. Big problems could emerge in Europe and in EMs exposed to China’s supply chain.

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    Gavekal Research

    A European Vortex

    There is a big disconnect between markets and reported data in the eurozone. Bund yields are within a whisker of all time lows, inflation expectations have cratered and the Eurostoxx banks index fell -12.5% in May. Yet at the same, Europe’s macro data, while not great, points to stabilization after a 16-month industrial downturn.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Harder Times For European Luxury

    It is conceivable that some European industries may benefit from the trans-Pacific economic cold war, picking up business lost to their US and Chinese competitors as a result of the worsening tensions. But one sector that will not benefit is the European equity investor’s favorite: luxury goods. European luxury goods companies now face tougher times ahead.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: European Election Fallout

    The European Parliament elections saw established parties pummeled, but the political center broadly hold out against the forces of nationalist-populism. In this video interview, Cedric considers what that means for investors and how systemic European risk should now be understood.

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