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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, January 2022

    In the US and Europe, the new year has begun with a huge wave of workplace absenteeism due to surging omicron Covid cases. In China, policymakers are adopting a whack-a-mole approach to multiple Covid outbreaks, while other emerging economies are curtailing market opening measures. Our team outline their base case views for growth, inflation and markets in 2022.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Gold As An Emerging Market Play

    Spare a thought for gold bugs. At the beginning of 2021, their reasoning was clear. With all the money-printing and fiscal stimulus across the rich world, inflation would breeze past 2%. From there, it would be just a short skip and a jump to higher gold prices. Inflation did indeed breeze past 2%. But gold prices fell. So, what went wrong? As Gavekal has long maintained, investors should look at gold as a derivative play on emerging markets.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Investing Through Inflation

    When assessing the impact of inflation on US markets, Charles has long believed that its actual level is irrelevant. Instead, it is necessary to determine whether price growth is accelerating or decelerating. He uses this insight to present a new framework for investing in inflationary times.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Behind The Incredible Export Boom

    Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Breakout Time... Again

    In early 2021 US bond yields charged higher, and oil and gold both looked poised to break out decisively to the upside. The underperformance of value stocks seemed to be coming to an end. Then two developments pulled the rug out from under the cyclical trade. Fast forward, and today we might be back in early 2021. Louis asks what could shock markets this time.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Four Reasons To Buy The Dip

    Is it time to buy the dip in global equities? One reason might be the absurdly panicky headlines that preceded Monday’s possible reversal of the global equity correction. But beyond the hysterical headlines, I can see four reasons to increase equity exposure, even though the S&P 500 is just -3% and the Nasdaq only -7% off their all-time highs.

    13
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    Gavekal Research

    The Labor Market, The Fed And Asset Prices

    The first week of January drove home the extent to which investors and the US Federal Reserve have both lost faith in the “transitory inflation” story. The US unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in December—tight by any standard. As a result, investors have concluded that the Fed cannot stay loose forever, and that tightening is likely sooner rather than later.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Supply-Side Shock

    Soaring infection rates due to the omicron Covid wave are causing widespread disruption to supply chains around the globe. A resolution to global supply issues rests on Beijing maintaining this balancing act, as it also moves to shore up growth.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Case For US Bank Stocks

    As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, the US economy is back to relying on banks as the main agents of credit creation. And as US yields move higher, Will is convinced that large-cap bank stocks offer one of the best bets in the US market. In this video interview, he explains why.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    SWOT Analysis For 2022

    Despite a spate of exogenous shocks in 2021, currency markets largely remained placid, bonds barely sold off and the US equity market continued to scale new heights. This year, however, the global policy backdrop is shifting. Clearly, 2022 will be different from 2021. But how different? Louis analyzes the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the new year.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    As January Goes

    We are only six days into the year, but most investors must hope that the adage “as January goes, so goes the year” does not hold true for 2022. After all, the S&P 500 is down -1.4% and the Nasdaq has shed -3.5%. And behind this pullback in the broader indexes, pain in the more speculative parts of the market is starting to add up. Since early November, the bitcoin price has fallen -36.5% and the Russell 2000 growth index is flirting with...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Of Prices, Profits, Energy And Markets

    In various pieces over recent years, I have tried to show that most economic activity is nothing but energy transformed, and that economic value derives from "scarcity" or "efficiency". Further, US stock market returns can tell us a lot about "efficiency values" deployable in the future. These broad concepts can be tied together to assist in investment decisions.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    US Equity Transitions

    Despite huge supply chain disruption, rising inflation and a more-hawkish-than-expected central bank, the S&P 500 index rose a whopping 27% last year and along the way suffered a maximum fall of -5%. Going into 2022, investors may conclude that US equities have hit “escape velocity” and nothing will spoil the rally.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Bring Out The Usual Suspects

    As we approach the end of 2021, two questions come to mind for next year: Will the US tighten in 2022, and if so, by how much? And will China ease policy in the face of its slowing economy, and if so, how? In addition to these two established founts of uncertainty, two new sources have reared their heads in recent days.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Rethinking The International Liquidity Crisis

    In recent weeks Charles has published a series of reports assessing changes in the reserve of value that underpins the global financial system. In this report, he returns to one of his older frameworks for the US-dollar-centered system to see if it still has explanatory power. He concludes that it does, but he is not reassured by the findings.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Are Rock-Bottom Bond Yields ‘Irrational’?

    What has been the most surprising financial event of 2021? The 20% gain in equity prices, the 40% jump in oil prices and even the fivefold leap in US inflation may all have been bigger than expected, but they were at least directionally understandable consequences of the fastest growth in the world economy for 40 years. That explosive growth, in turn, was a predictable response to last year’s unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimuli, magnified...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Never Mind The Fed Hawks

    Even as the Federal Reserve chairman went out of his way to sound hawkish on Wednesday, risk assets rallied. On the basis that truth often hides in plain sight, the most obvious explanation is that the Fed had well telegraphed an accelerated taper to its asset purchases from US$15bn a month to US$30bn. A faster wind-down to the quantitative easing program means the Fed will be unencumbered in hiking interest rates sooner, if needed. That is a...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The US Infrastructure Conundrum

    As the central bank pulls away the punch bowl and the fiscal authorities push for a boozy top-up to give the party fresh impetus, the US economy faces an odd moment. With inflation near a 40-year high, opposition to the Biden administration’s sprawling US$1.75trn “Build Back Better” bill is partly focused on its inflationary impact. Critics point to the White House’s infrastructure spending program, passed last month, as having already given an...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Money Supply, Reconsidered

    Money sits at the heart of the economy and financial markets. At a time when inflation is taking off and the US Federal Reserve is starting to scale back its money printing, investors badly need a single reliable gauge of US money supply—not a dozen or more. In this report, Will offers a new measure of money supply that he believes is suitable for today’s conditions.

    19
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, December 2021

    Our senior team consider the big strategy questions that should be vexing investors in 2022. This includes an assessment of potential positive surprises that could present opportunities for investors who are positioned ahead of time. Our team also consider prospects for the undersupplied and underinvested global energy market.

    0
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