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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - A Strangely Tight Fiscal Policy

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    Gavekal Research

    When To Worry About Housing Prices

    Housing prices in three-quarters of major Chinese cities are now rising again. Prices paid at land auctions are setting new records. Nationwide housing sales growth, at 11% YoY in Q4, is in the double digits. In short, China’s housing market seems to have returned overnight to the red-hot boom of 2009-10. Since much of China’s broader economic rebound is due to renewed strength in housing, the sustainability of this latest property boom will do...

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Recovery Is Here. Now What?

    A bigger-than-expected pickup in China’s GDP has confirmed the cyclical recovery evident over the past few months. Real GDP rebounded to 7.9% YoY growth in Q4 from the trough of 7.4% in Q3, ending the streak of seven straight quarters of slowing growth. Nominal GDP also bounced back as inflation started to pick up again: the GDP deflator rose 1.8% YoY in Q4, up from 1% in Q3. As a result, full-year GDP growth was 7.8%, below the totemic 8% level...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Consolidating The Recovery

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    Gavekal Research

    A Halfway House For Infrastructure

    This year China, facing an unexpected and unwanted slowdown in growth has once again used infrastructure investment as a countercyclical tool. The infrastructure spending spree of the 2009 stimulus had led to a prolonged hangover in 2010 and 2011, and by the turn of this year total infrastructure investment was actually declining in YoY terms. Project approvals then accelerated, and growth turned positive by Q2; by October spending was rising by...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly December 2012 - State-owned Enterprises

    One of the most persistent claims made about China’s economy is that an embattled private sector is getting squeezed out by increasingly powerful state-owned enterprises. This claim does not stand up to the evidence: private companies have increased their share of virtually every economic indicator, from exports to employment to bank credit. But that does not mean all is well in corporate China. Though large in aggregate, private firms remain...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2012 - Property: Nearing The Peak

    China’s housing boom reached new heights in 2010-11, on the back of a huge monetary stimulus and a new low-income housing program. The fading of this construction boom is clearly a big part of the sharp slowdown in China’s growth in 2012. But there remains a huge backlog of housing under construction that will hit the market over the next few years. Does this mean there will be a supply glut?

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - This Land Is Your Land

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    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Reaching The Housing Peak

    China’s housing boom reached new heights in 2010-11, on the back of a huge monetary stimulus and a new low-income housing program. The fading of this construction boom is clearly a big part of the sharp slowdown in China’s growth in 2012. But there remains a huge backlog of housing under construction that will hit the market over the next few years. Assessing the scale of this coming wave of housing supply is difficult because of inconsistent...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Shifting Up A Gear

    China’s major economic indicators for October improved across the board, offering more signs that growth is stabilizing after the sharp correction earlier this year. The stabilization is mainly driven by easier monetary policy and a recovering housing market, but even exports are doing better than expected. October’s indicators confirm the turning point in the September data (see The Storm Is Passing Over), and we expect the data to keep...

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Macro Chartbook Nov 2012 - Finding The Bottom

    The worst of the economic slowdown is over, as most growth indicators have steadied.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Banks Versus Bonds

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    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Storm Is Passing Over

    Earlier this week Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao previewed the Q3 economic data, telling his audience that “currently there are some positive changes in the economy, and growth is stabilizing.” Lo and behold, the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed exactly that: while headline GDP growth continued to slow in Q3, many indicators for September steadied or improved slightly. There are not yet convincing signs that a...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Postcards From The Edge Of Sichuan

    We recently spent a few days meeting local residents and officials in a fairly poor rural county in the south of Sichuan province. The place we will call County X has a total population of around half a million people, most of whom are officially designated as farmers, though an increasing number are clustering in the bustling county seat. Our key observations from this time at China’s grassroots include the following:

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Welcome To The Chinese Business Cycle

    Over the last few years, China has not had business cycles: it has had policy cycles. Economic ups and downs were driven almost entirely by high-level policy, and understanding which way the government wanted the economy to go was, more or less, all you needed to know. Most observers, including ourselves, thus expected the government’s switch to pro-growth policies in October 2011 to have steadied the economy by now. This has not happened,...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2012 - Property: Encircling the cities from the countryside

    Drive around the edge of any large Chinese city and you will see block after block of urban-style flats. Many of these are built on state-owned urban construction land and are recorded in urban construction data. But an unknown number are built on rural construction land—officially owned by village collectives, not the state—and are not counted as part of the urban housing market. Many of these flats are occupied by rural hukou holders who have...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Encircling The Cities From The Countryside

    Drive around the rural fringe of any large Chinese city and you will see block after block of apartment buildings. Many of these are built on state-owned urban construction land and are recorded in urban construction data. But an unknown number are built on rural construction land—officially owned by village collectives, not the state—and are not counted as part of the urban housing market. Much of this housing is occupied by rural hukou holders...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Macro Chartbook Aug 2012 - The Art Of Easing

    Our quarterly chartbook reviews and interprets China’s major economic indicators in convenient graphical form. Main points in the latest edition include:

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Better Things Are On The Way

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    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Housing & Construction Review 2012

    Confused by China’s housing market? You are not alone. But fear not, our regular overview of housing and construction covers the fundamentals needed to understand the market in a convenient visual form. How much does real estate matter for China’s economic growth? Does urbanization really drive the housing market? Who buys housing in China, and how can they afford it? What drives the construction cycle? How does government policy affect the...

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