E.g., 01-04-2020
E.g., 01-04-2020
We have found 261 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Property Responds To Treatment

    Although China’s economic data for April were generally mediocre, property was a bright spot. National property sales rebounded to a 7% YoY gain, after 1% decline in March, marking the first positive growth in 15 months. The latest interest rate cut is likely to further fuel the recovery, and indeed preliminary data point to continued sales gains in May. Broad-based monetary easing has proved a more effective remedy for weak housing demand than...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Property Is Still Too Big To Let Go

    While the share of China’s economy driven directly and indirectly by real estate and construction has declined over the past three years, it is still substantial at roughly one-third. This means that the government cannot afford to be relaxed about the housing market as fundamental demand starts a long-term decline.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Trembling Giants

    Political and public pressure is building for an overhaul of China’s state-owned oil companies. China National Petroleum Corp. and Sinopec Group, formed in the 1980s from government departments, are among the largest companies in China and their influence is difficult to overstate (two other state energy firms, CNOOC and Sinochem, are smaller and less powerful). Nevertheless the political winds are now blowing against them and a change of some...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Developers Fatten Up For The Long Winter

    China’s beleaguered property developers are finding their way to a new strategy. While the real-estate boom of the past decade rewarded those who could build the most the fastest, the structural slowdown in housing demand that is now underway (see Housing’s Next Decade) calls for a different approach. Consolidation not expansion is the order of the day: in 2014, developers sharply increased their spending on mergers and acquisitions, even as...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Managing The Disappointment In Housing

    China’s housing market has gotten off to a very bad start for the year, with housing sales falling 18% YoY in January and February, the worst decline since 2009. The terrible data are another reminder that we have entered a structural downward trend in housing demand, which means that sales are more likely to undershoot than to overshoot. But the negative trend also means that previous government concerns about overheating housing prices and...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2015 - How China Will Gain From Lower Oil Prices

    China has surpassed the US as the world’s biggest oil importer. The plunge in crude prices gives it new leverage in its quest to diversify its sources of supply.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2015 - The Great Gas Price Conundrum

    For years, China’s problem has been finding enough new supplies of natural gas to satisfy its voracious demand. Now, the critical issue is to get prices right.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2015 - King Coal's Long, Slow Decline

    Just a few years ago, the notion that China’s coal use might soon stop growing was laughable. Now it seems likely that peak coal demand is imminent.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Property's Supply-Side Correction Continues

    Over the past few months, the long-running decline in China’s housing sales has clearly bottomed and started to improve. December’s sales decline was just 4% YoY, compared to the 16% drop in July. But while this kind of improvement in previous cycles would have translated into a similar turnaround in construction activity, that has not been forthcoming this time.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Peak Coal Is Nigh

    Here’s some good news for China’s smoggy skies: the nation’s consumption of coal fell outright in 2014, for the first time since 1998. This decline—the result of a severe downturn in the most energy-intensive industries—has upended some long-held assumptions about China’s future trajectory of energy use. Last year’s unexpected combination of 7.4% GDP growth and just 2.2% growth in energy consumption means it is now very likely that China is...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Five Macro Questions For 2015

    For our first China research piece in the new year, we offer a guide to the economic outlook in the form of short answers to some big questions: Will the pace of economic reform accelerate? Will monetary policy keep getting looser? Will the property market recover convincingly? Can corporate profits hold up? Is consumer spending in trouble?

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Our Holiday Reading List

    For the third year we are publishing a year-end books round-up. The topics covered by the 17 books in our compendium include hardy Gavekal perennials such as economics, politics and the effect of technological transformation on modern life. In addition Charles considers ancient Rome’s decline due to its apparent embrace of socialism over liberalism. Louis kicks us off with a look at the roots of our most basic human urges.

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing & Construction Review

    Is the latest downturn in China’s housing market just another cyclical correction, or the bursting of an unsustainable bubble? To cut through the confusion surrounding this key part of the economy, it is crucial to understand the fundamentals. In this chartbook, our annual review of the housing and construction market, Rosealea explains our outlook for the long-term prospects for housing demand in China; explores the implication of changing...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Creditless Recovery For Housing?

    The extended decline in China’s housing sales is finally showing clear signs of reaching a bottom. The latest data show the decline in national property sales narrowed sharply in October, with volumes dropping just 1.6% after a 10.3% fall in September. And the daily transaction figures reported by a number of major cities suggest market activity continued strengthening in November. This improvement is primarily a response to the favorable...

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing’s Next Decade

    China’s housing market is not collapsing, but it is maturing and will decline. Our model shows that China’s housing demand is past its high-growth phase, and has been bouncing around its peak level since 2011. We project construction volume will decline 15-20% from current levels by 2025, hurting demand for steel and other construction materials.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Property Digs A Deeper Hole

    China’s local governments held a party for the housing market, but no one came. Most major cities (with some exceptions including Beijing and Shanghai) have rolled back measures restricting housing purchases since June, but housing sales are still weak. Previously, we had argued that the combination of a pickup in credit growth and the relaxation of purchase restrictions would help the downturn in property sales find a bottom relatively soon (...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Slums Are Still With Us

    One of the paradoxes of China’s housing market is that excess supply in many areas coexists with a shortage of housing for the worst-off. We have long argued that a significant portion of the Chinese urban population is under-housed, lacking access to modern living arrangements. Given continued worries over excess housing supply in China, we recently decided to test this analysis by re-estimating the housing stock from different data sources....

    15
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Housing’s Quiet Period Is Over

    A turning point in China’s housing policy has arrived, half a year into a downturn in property sales and construction. Since late June, major cities such as Hohhot, Jinan, Haikou, Tianjin and Chengdu have moved to support their housing markets. This is a change from earlier months, when local governments were more hesitant and often failed to publicize their policies, limiting their effect. The central government’s implicit approval of the new...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    More Postcards From The Edge Of Sichuan

    Two years ago, we visited a small rural county near the southern edge of Sichuan province, whose residents and officials were able to give us some insights as to how central government policy was being implemented at the grassroots level (see Postcards From The Edge Of Sichuan). Since then, a new administration has come to power, which is trying to shake up how local government works. So we recently paid a return visit to the place we call...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China Property: How Bad Can It Get?

    The critical question in China today is the direction of the property market. Are we finally seeing the long overdue, bloody end to a mammoth housing bubble? Or is this simply a cyclical correction, similar to previous downturns in 2008 and 2012, that will quickly reverse after modest price cuts and an easing of credit?

    0
Show me: results