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    Gavekal Research

    Where the Fed Stands on its Mandates

    When Bernanke took the job as Chairman of the Fed, he took on the legal mandate "to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates." While the desirability of these multiple mandates is debatable, one can see why, in 2008-09, the Fed Chairman felt compelled to aggressively cut rates and buy long-term MBS and UST. Bank loans were contracting, unemployment soaring, CPIs and price...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Catalyst for a Structural Shift in Japanese Trade?

    The 2001 recession was followed by a ‘jobless recovery’ in the US—at least in the US manufacturing sector, where basically all of the layoffs occurred (see chart). That jobless recovery was soon followed by another sharp decline, courtesy of the Great Recession. In a lunch we attended last week, Yale’s Dr. Peter Schott explained that leading up to the 2001 recession, the seeds were already sown for a wave of outsourcing of relatively low-end,...

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    Gavekal Research

    QSCB - 2Q11 - A Structural Turning Point for Markets?

    We would first like to offer our readers an apology: not only are we publishing our Quarterly Strategy Chart Book just 24 hours after the publication of our China Economic Quarterly (with can't miss articles on alternative energy, insurance, RMB deregulation, Mongolia, and the property slowdown), but this quarterly is long as well: a full 74 pages!

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    Gavekal Research

    The ECB Hikes Rates Without Making Headlines

    Whether Fed and the ECB move together, or apart, matters greatly to forex rates. Bernanke and Trichet both responded to the global crisis by flooding their banking systems with excess reserves, thus driving overnight interbank rates down near their respective ‘floor rates,’ the rate paid by central banks for deposits of excess reserves. With the floor rate set at 0.25% in both systems, the short rate spread thus became negligible. However, one...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Signs of Returning Pricing Power

    Six months ago, the US was experiencing a ‘soft patch’ that many feared would turn into a ‘double dip’ recession. And with core price measures already quite weak, there were renewed fears of a deflationary spiral. Inflationary expectations according to TIPS were falling fast. In response, the Fed stepped in aggressively, providing QE1.5 in early August, and then talking up QE2 in late August. Inflation expectations started to recover, and are...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Quick Review of US Job Growth in 2010

    Going into 2011, the odds seem to be that the US$ will come out on top of the next round of the ugly contest between the euro, yen and pound (see The UK in 2011); if only because the current momentum of US economic growth should lead the Fed to soon start managing expectations about how much longer its extreme case of monetary incontinence can last (see Easy Money, Easy Fiscal…but For How Long?).

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    Gavekal Research

    It's Never a Good Time for Price Floors, Even Wages

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-22.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011224.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    QE2 - The Fifth Phase of the Fed's Crisis Response

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-01.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment1011011.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Why QE Has Not Stopped the Yen's Ascent

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-12.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1010122.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Some Real Improvements in US Personal Income

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-06.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009064.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Lessons From Bernanke's Testimony

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-26.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1007261.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Does Not 'Generally' Export Inflation

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-12.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1007122.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book 3Q10 - The Great Rebalancing

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-06-10.You can download it here: GKQuarterlyStrategy1006101.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Collapse in M2 Growth

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-06-01.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners100601.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Fig Leaf Comes Off

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-05-17.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1005178.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book 2Q 2010- The Return of Country Risk and What It Means

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-03-03.You can download it here: GKQuarterlyStrategy1003031.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China's UST Sell-off: A Political or Cyclical Event?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-02-22.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1002222.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Will This be a Jobless Recovery?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-02-08.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1002085.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Bernanke & Trichet's Monetary Policy Experiments

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-01-11.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1001113.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Fed Won't Raise Its Target Rate Until It Can Hit It

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2009-12-15.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment091215.pdf

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