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E.g., 09-05-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Taper Timing: What To Watch

    In case you hadn’t noticed, Ben Bernanke wants to dial back the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program later this year. This has focused intense scrutiny of the chairman’s every utterance, which is turning hard-nosed Fed-watchers into amateur psychologists. Some ask whether he will initiate a tapering of the program as a professional courtesy to his successor, while others opine on the legacy he may want to secure in the central banking...

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Housing, Bonds & Ben Bernanke

    Ben Bernanke again tried to calm market nerves yesterday by stressing the conditionality of any tapering to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program. In particular, the Fed chairman pointed out that his committee “will be watching to see if the movement in mortgage rates has any material effect on housing.” This is important qualification since yesterday saw new data released which suggests the recent rise in prices and interest rates...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (17 July 2013)

    In the latest Five Corners biweekly review of global economics and investment:

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Australia And The China Syndrome

    So for the satellite supplier economies to the Chinese juggernaut, is it simply a matter of following the leader? This morning it was announced that China’s economic growth duly slowed to an annual rate of 7.5% in 2Q13 from 7.7% in the previous period. Moreover, the latest credit data shows that China’s credit cycle has decisively turned, implying that last month’s interbank rate spike was no aberration. Dragonomics will publish a detailed look...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Control Engineers

    “Words are, of course, the most powerful drug used by mankind,” so said Rudyard Kipling. When central bankers meet next month for the annual Jackson Hole shindig, they can ruminate on their success being increasingly dictated less by what they do, than what they say. Take the European Central Bank and Bank of England which in recent months have been fairly taciturn next to a loquacious Federal Reserve. Yet, by yesterday verbalizing forward...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (3 July 2013)

    In the latest Five Corners biweekly review of global economics and investment, Charles Gave expresses doubt about the supposed rebound in European industry, while Francois Chauchat looks at whether EMU peripheral bonds are a buy after recent sell-offs. We also have Will Denyer on US bonds/housing, Rosealea Yao on China's interbank drama and Cathy Holcombe on the rising emerging market middle classes. See more details below—and please click...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Will Higher Rates Kill US Housing?

    Both US house prices and interest rates have experienced big upward moves—raising the obvious question of whether a higher cost of money will derail the housing recovery. Our approach was to test affordability levels based on a range of higher interest rates. We found that the housing market can easily bear 10-year treasury yields at 3%, and may eventually bear higher rates than that, but the fast and easy gains are behind us.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    What's Wrong With An Optimistic Fed?

    The Federal Reserve made no policy changes yesterday—short rates remain near zero and quantitative easing continues at a fast clip of $85bn per month. The Fed did however adjust its economic projections, for the better—unemployment is expected to fall faster than previously thought, and inflation lower. Chairman Bernanke then spent an hour with reporters trying to clarify what this means for the future policy trajectory.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (19 June 2013)

    In the latest Five Corners biweekly review of global economics and investment:

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Truth About US Rates

    Interest rates in the US are extraordinarily low. It is common to blame this situation on central bank manipulation, but Federal Reserve bond buying is only part of the story. The bigger reason for ultra-low rates is that bond markets are pricing in an assumption that the past five years of abnormally low nominal GDP growth will be repeated. We think this is unlikely: nominal GDP growth is picking up and bond yields will rise with it. The...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Is It A Bond Bear Market?

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (8 May 2013)

    In the latest Five Corners biweekly review of global economics and investment:

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Good, But Not Out Of The Woods Yet

    After weeks of relentlessly disappointing growth data, the US finally delivered a major positive release. Stronger-than-expected payroll numbers set off an equities rally and pushed up bond yields. This report comes as a relief —but we are not out of the woods yet.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (24 April 2013)

    Long-time GaveKal readers will recall a former publication called Five Corners, in which we presented a series of short takes on global economic and market developments. Today we re-launch Five Corners in a new format, which we hope will enable readers to keep closer track of our core views.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Growth Falters And GIPSI Bonds Rally?

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    New Century, New Structural Growth Rates

    In the second half of the last century, the US labor force was swelled by baby boomers and a surge of female participation. These major demographic forces shaped the economy and established growth expectations. But they have since changed dramatically. The structural growth rate of the labor force is now, and will continue to be, slow and steady. All else equal, this implies a slower and steadier structural growth rate of the economy.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Growth & Markets Monthly (April 2013)

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    A First Non-Euro Currency Debate

    Last Thursday the Bank of Japan stunned investors with a muscular monetary response that aims to break a deflationary cycle that had seemed to condemn Japan to permanent economic decline. In this piece we debate what the new policy settings mean for investors and crucially, seek to answer the trillion-yen question of where the Japanese currency is headed.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Does Velocity Fall In Spring?

    Tolstoy said that “spring is the time of plans and projects.” Obviously, Tolstoy did not manage money as for the fourth year in a row, spring appears to be the time when US growth indicators roll over, the euro project threatens suicide, and investor risk appetite falls out of bed. To be honest, we are still scratching our heads for a solid explanation (and very much welcome comments from our wise readers). But below are a few possibilities to...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Bond Yields Are Falling

    So much for the great rotation out of bonds. With the lone exception of Italy, ten-year G7 government bond yields have dropped to new lows for the year. And the simple average yield for all G7 bonds just made a new all-time low of 1.92%. Perhaps most crucially, US treasury yields have skidded to 1.75%, decisively below the critical level of 1.84%—which served as a resistance last year and then, thus far this year, a support (see chart). We see...

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