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    Gavekal Research

    When Do We Begin To Worry About Cost Pressures?

    For the last 13 months or so, ever since the Covid pandemic started to grip, the broad US equity market has been driven above all by fears and hopes for top-line revenue growth. Last spring, as investors anticipated a collapse in revenues, the market collapsed. Policy support halted the slide, and over recent months, as investors have looked forward to the end of the pandemic and a rebound in revenues, the broad market has scaled new highs.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Unpacking The NFT Hype

    What’s a “non-fungible token”? Why would anyone pay millions of dollars for one? And what do they have to do with blockchains? In this video interview, Will unpacks the latest craze to explain what buying an NFT actually gets you, and considers whether this is a useful new technology or yet another case of blockchain hype.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Future Of The Great US Rotation

    Much has happened in the US in the last eight weeks. More than 80mn Americans have been vaccinated against Covid, Congress has passed a stimulus bill worth 9% of GDP, and the Fed has confirmed its determination to remain among the most peaceable of inflation doves. In response, 10-year US treasury yields have leapt, and the rotation from growth stocks to value has grown more violent even as the broad equity market has ascended new heights. In...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Short And Long For The US Dollar

    After ending 2020 amid heavily negative sentiment, the US dollar has confounded near-term bears by edging higher year-to-date. The DXY dollar index has gained 2.75%, clawing back just over a third of its -7.5% decline in 2020. Perhaps this should not be too surprising. First, by the end of 2020, the US dollar was no longer blatantly overvalued. Second, the DXY found support at 90, its low of early 2018. Third, the near-term outlook for nominal...

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    Gavekal Research

    Markets After The Fed

    The Federal Reserve saw no need to ease monetary policy any further at its March meeting which concluded Wednesday. That’s no surprise. Policy is already extremely easy, and growth and inflation are already looking up. Indeed, the Fed has pumped so much money into the system that the one policy change it felt compelled to make was to increase counterparty limits on its reverse repo facility from US$30bn to US$80bn in response to concerns that...

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: US Equities In A Changed Macro Environment

    US tech stocks have been hit hard, as attention focuses on the underlying quality of themes like the migration to electric vehicles. Yet this shakeup is also happening against the backdrop of a fast-changing investment environment due to a strengthening US growth outlook, rising inflationary pressure and an unnerved bond market which is driving yields higher. In this video interview, Will seeks to unpack these dynamics in order to navigate a...

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    Gavekal Research

    Bond Vigilantes Keep Fighting The Fed

    Jerome Powell tried to calm the bond market yesterday by repeating that it’s likely to be a while before policy normalization begins. Growth and inflation indicators are up, but the Fed expects much of this to be “transitory”. In short, Powell remains a steadfast dove. So why are bond yields, real and nominal, still ticking higher?

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Threat Of Rising Inflation And Yields

    The roll-out of vaccines in the US is upending the investment environment, as the focus shifts beyond the pandemic to full-throttled economic recovery. With both monetary and fiscal policy set to remain loose, nominal growth could soon rip. Hopes for “normalization” have driven up inflation expectations and freaked out bond investors. Those getting fixed interest are right to be unnerved, as production capacity is fairly tight, inventories are...

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Bitcoin—Money Or Snakeoil?

    Will Denyer examines the forces behind the eye-watering run-up and eye-popping volatility of bitcoin, and delves behind the near-term moves in crypto-currency markets to ask whether bitcoin and its ilk will ever gain traction as a unit of account, means of exchange or store of value.

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    Gavekal Research

    It’s A Policy-Driven Market

    US bond yields are rising as the growth outlook is boosted by the vaccine roll-out and sustained monetary and fiscal stimulus. US value stocks and the sectors hit by Covid restrictions are ripping. Growth investors, in contrast, are spooked about this situation, as much of their worth comes from earnings discounted far into the future. The investors' reactions to Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s Congressional testimony on Tuesday reminded...

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Economic Impact Of A New Era

    Vaccines, fiscal stimulus and cheap money are working together to bolster the outlook for growth and inflation in the United States. The US is also under new leadership with new priorities. Our US team of analysts explained what this all means for the economy and asset markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    US Inflation Has Many Fathers

    As the economics adage goes, inflation happens when “too much money chases too few goods”. This is an oversimplification but it does contain a core truth: the monetary price of goods is dictated by supply and demand factors that impact both the goods in question, and money itself.

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    Gavekal Research

    Will Stimulus Cause US Overheating?

    The US Democrats are declining to cut the size of their stimulus proposals enough to secure bipartisan support, and are instead proposing to push the bulk of their US$1.9trn package through Congress using the reconciliation process (see The State Of Biden’s Stimulus). Their determination has raised fears that pressing ahead with such a large fiscal stimulus at a time when the US output gap appears to be closing fast could prove uncomfortably...

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    Gavekal Research

    After GameStop

    Yesterday saw Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen chair a meeting of US financial regulators to assess the fallout of recent frenzied trading in “meme stocks”. There is unlikely to be a Dodd-Frank type response to this episode but a new administration may be motivated to act decisively. Yet the effect of GameStop may go wider, so consider the effect on the four key actors in the saga.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Tactical Turn In The Dollar?

    Neither the United States nor the European Union got off to a flying start, but the US is out front with its vaccination program. This points to longer Covid disruption in Europe, which—in the short term—should support the US dollar versus the euro. Yet, in the longer term there remain many reasons to underweight the dollar, certainly against cheaper “risk-on” currencies.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, January 2021

    A Democratic US administration is set to control all arms of the US government for the first time since 2010. Will this mean a fiscal blowout, causing big changes in the pricing of treasuries and the US dollar? Louis, Anatole and Will assess the possibilities.

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    Gavekal Research

    Biden’s Spending Plan

    In a speech late Thursday, US President-Elect Joe Biden called on Congress to approve an additional US$1.9trn of federal spending to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic and support the US economy. If approved, Biden’s package will bring US government stimulus spending since the start of the pandemic to more than US$5trn. Heavy on support for households, Biden’s proposal would avert the risk of a first quarter contraction in the US economy and prime the...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Road Ahead For US Yields

    Friday’s US labor market figures showing a surprise 140,000 contraction in December’s non-farm payrolls emphasized just how tough the winter months are going to be for the world’s largest economy as coronavirus infection rates and resulting hospitalizations continue to accelerate. Yet the grim near-term economic outlook notwithstanding, the first week of 2021 saw inflation expectations push higher, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate...

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    Gavekal Research

    Bitcoin, Gold Or Fiat?

    Governments and central banks are giving users of fiat money reason to consider alternative mediums of exchange and stores of value. And it seems entirely possible that Bitcoin can rally even harder than it already has. But are there the makings of a good money? Because if the answer is “no”, then bitcoin is running on fumes.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Senate Upheaval

    With some trepidation, Yanmei and Will offer their view on the economic consequences of Georgia, assuming that the Democrats have indeed secured a wafer-thin majority in the Senate. While the fiscal restraints will now surely be released and tax hikes are more likely, the real winners of this election will be centrists in the Democratic Party, who in effect wield veto power over its more liberal instincts.

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