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    Gavekal Research

    The Resurgence Of Walmart Man

    In July 2014, I wrote a piece looking at the fallout from poorer Americans getting poorer (see Poverty Matters For Capitalists). My basic point was that the consumer price index understated the loss of real income being suffered by non-supervisory workers. I showed this using my Walmart index, which is weighted 50% food, 30% shelter and 20% rent to reflect this group’s true consumption basket. Three years ago this population cohort faced a...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Love The Economy, Hate Economists

    Charles is proud of his data-driven approach to economic analysis and is not impressed with the methods applied by much of the modern economics profession. More to the point, he thinks that most modern economic remedies have negatively impacted the growth outlook and dulled investment performance.

    14
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    Gavekal Research

    The Brexit Talks Don’t Matter

    The details of the Brexit talks between the British government and Brussels are far less important, argues Charles in this paper, than the blow Britain’s referendum vote has dealt to the technocratic principles which underpin the European Union’s power structure. The pillars of the temple are crumbling, and sooner or later the edifice must fall.

    14
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    Gavekal Research

    Building A Bond Valuation Tool

    The “golden rule” of French Nobel laureate Maurice Allais states that over the long run, long term government bond yields always converge with the nominal structural growth rate of the economy. In this paper Charles sets out to build a government bond market valuation tool based on the Allais postulate.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    An Interesting Configuration

    When the market is suffering from doubts, it pays to start with the facts. And clearly the market is having a few doubts right now. After setting the latest in a series of record highs in intraday trading yesterday, US equities succumbed to the jitters. In the space of an hour, the S&P500 fell -1% and the Nasdaq -2%, as investors questioned the underpinnings of the current run-up in stocks. So, let’s begin with some facts:

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Value Creation In A Capitalist World

    In a capitalist economy there are three different kinds of value creation: the Schumpeterian, the Ricardian, and the Malthusian. And the companies in each of these value creation segments swing through very different cycles. In this short paper, Charles outlines how each segment works, explains where they are in their cycles, and suggests how investors can build appropriately hedged portfolios.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    On The Demise Of Populism

    Anyone who bought European equities in the wake of Emmanuel Macron’s impressive win in the French presidential election is down a few percent in euro terms and underperforming global equities by about 1%. Charles are Louis are not convinced that this can be explained away by the markets taking a “breather” after a big run up. They smell darker forces at work.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Sweden’s Secret Sauce

    Sweden is a high-growth economy with competitive firms in everything from retailing to metal bashing to software. Yet, there is a time to be in Sweden—or at least overweight—and there are times to be out. Sweden and the US had two of the 20th century’s best performing equity markets and I will simplify this decision by measuring their relative attractiveness. Spoiler alert: this report has a positive recommendation.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    When Central Bankers Attempt To Change Direction

    In recent days , central bankers in the US and Europe have been signaling how much they want to end unconventional monetary policies and revert to a more normal monetary model that does not put asset prices at the heart of the system. It is a laudable aim. But, warns Charles in this piece, central bankers have seldom managed to transition from one monetary regime to another without causing convulsions in the financial markets. This time, the...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    So We Are In Secular Stagnation...

    Hand-wringing has reached new levels among economists over the somewhat nebulous concept of “secular stagnation”. Charles is not convinced by explanations which range from policymakers hitting practical limits of control, through to a technological dark age being encountered. He thinks there is a simpler answer for why some developed economies such as Germany and Canada have maintained a steady expansion, and others like France and the US have...

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Small Caps, Big Caps And US Corporate Spreads

    The performance of large-capitalization US stocks relative to small caps is sending an important signal about US corporate yield spreads. In this short piece, Charles decodes the message, and advises corporate bond investors to begin seeking safety in treasuries.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Back To Sanity In Japan

    I know, or I believe I know, that over thelong term equity returns follow one thing only: corporate earnings. As an example, look at Japan. If I rebase both the Topix price index and corporate earnings to 100 in 1978, I find that today the market is at at 385, and earnings are at... 385. Spot on!

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    My Whole Career In One Chart

    My career in financial markets started in January 1971, half a year before Richard Nixon changed the basis of the post-WWII financial order by ending gold convertibility for US dollars. Hence, I thought that readers may be interested in a chart below that tells a simple story of those years, while also offering an asset allocation tool that for me has proven invaluable. In short, it is the story of running a balanced portfolio.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar — May 2017

    Louis Gave, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Arthur Kroeber presented at Gavekal's New York seminar last week.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    German Ordo-liberalism vs French Keynesianism

    So I hear that happy days have returned to Europe’s single currency area as shown by improved purchasing manager readings. With German firms especially upbeat and a reassuring new fellow occupying the Élysée Palace, I understand that Berlin will soon roll over and allow a juicy fiscal expansion in return for France making its job market less rigid. I tend to be skeptical about such road-to-Damascus conversions.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Back To The Future

    Back in 1947, war was over but a ruined European economy needed full-scale reconstruction: the Marshall Plan. As I look at the way China is wooing its neighbors through its Belt and Road strategy and other economic and financial linkages, the approach looks like a remarkably effective “copy-and-paste” operation.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    So It’s Macron. What Next?

    The French presidential election did not play out as Charles had expected. With Emmanuel Macron having achieved a decisive victory, he concedes that the En Marche! Party is likely to carry the momentum into next month’s parliamentary elections. What this means for investors is that France is likely to be politically stable in the coming few years and will not be the focal point of eurozone ructions.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    An Alternative Explanation For The French Split

    One of the more interesting thinkers about the current political scene in France is Christophe Guilluy, an urban geographer and author of The Twilight of Elite France. His basic insight about French cities and by extension the structure of the French economy starts with the observation that most urban areas are divided into three concentric circles which contain very different social classes. Charles likes the argument which clearly illuminates...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call On The French And UK Elections

    In a special Gavekal Research Conference Call following the results of the first round of the French presidential election, Charles Gave and Cedric Gemehl presented their analysis of Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron’s prospects in the second round in two weeks. Anatole Kaletsky presented his view of British politics and the future of the Brexit process following Theresa May calling for a snap election in June.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    French Political Trouble Just Started

    Investors cheer the win of centrist Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the French presidential election, presuming a victory in the second round would mark the end of Euroskeptic populism. Charles is not so sure about this benign interpretation and argues that France may in fact be on the cusp of a new era of political instability.

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