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    Gavekal Research

    The Sun Hasn't Set On Asia

    People in markets, nervous folks, always need something to worry about. In 2012 the big anxiety was whether Europe would fall apart; in 2013 it was whether the Federal Reserve would start cutting back on its asset purchases. Now that Europe has crept from despair to stagnation and the Fed has anchored expectations that it will steadily reduce its asset buying while holding rates near zero, the anxiety-vane is likely to spin towards Asia.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Our Holiday Reading List

    Last year we inaugurated a year-end books roundup, in which we asked our staff to review the most interesting things they had read in the past year. Readers enjoyed it, so we renew the tradition this year with 16 selections which, as usual, reflect the eclectic interests of the GaveKal team. Monolingual Anglophone subscribers beware: for added piquancy, and in deference to our firm’s multicultural roots and diverse clientele, the final review (...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar December 2013 - Anatole, Arthur, Francios and Pierre

    We held our final seminar of the year in New York on December 13, with Anatole, Arthur, Francois and Pierre offering their outlooks for the coming year. Audio tapes of their discussions are available below, in order of presentation:

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    Gavekal Research

    Xi's China Flexes Its Muscles

    Having celebrated Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s bold economic reform agenda, we must now take stock of a less appealing element of the new regime: a more determined and muscular effort to throw China’s weight around Asia. Beijing’s declaration on Saturday of a new “air defense identification zone” (ADIZ) covering a huge swathe of the East China Sea and including the disputed Senkaku Islands, came as an unwelcome surprise to Japan and the United...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    How Can Chinese Assets Boom?

    Some clients have taken us to task for translating our positive call on China’s economic reform agenda into a positive call on Chinese risk assets. Over the next year or two, structural reform means slashing broad credit growth from the current 19% down to the very low teens, accepting a lower GDP growth rate, and reining in the excesses that have pumped up the property market, construction and materials demand. Even if we accept that all these...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    China Changes Course

    China has turned around. The reform plan unveiled by Communist Party chief Xi Jinping last Friday represents a decisive shift away from the increasingly statist policies of the previous government, and towards a far more market-oriented organization of China’s economy. Worries about whether Xi is strong enough to impose his reformist vision over entrenched opposition from state owned enterprises and local governments will soon disappear. All...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Xi Jinping Changes The Rules Of The Game

    The blockbuster policy package delivered by China’s Communist Party leaders last Friday dispelled doubts about whether Party boss Xi Jinping is a strong reformer. It is clear that he is: the complete “Decision on Deepening Reform” laid out a host of major initiatives including a decisive shift in favor of markets, a relaxation of the one-child policy, the elimination of repressive “re-education through labor” camps, and big proposed reforms in...

    10
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Time To Stop Worrying About Shibor

    Once again all eyes are on the China interbank market, as a modest spike in rates has raised fears of monetary tightening in what is still by a wide margin the world’s fastest growing major economy. We have three things to say on this subject.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: East Asia's Reforms: Thank The US

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Mary Poppins In Japan: Abenomics Explained

    We recently dove into the mysteries of Abenomics, and concluded that the main motivation behind Japan’s suddenly aggressive macro policies is fear of fiscal collapse and eclipse by China (see Why Abenomics, Why Now?). Today we explore the details of the program and assess the likelihood that it will succeed in its aim of boosting Japan’s long-term trend growth rate to 2%, or a bit over double the rate during the two so-called “lost decades”...

    16
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Abenomics, Why Now?

    Like many others, we have spent a lot of time over the past few months trying to figure out where Japan’s “Abenomics” experiment came from, what its purpose is, what it actually consists of, and how likely it is to achieve its aims. Today we try to answer the first two questions (origins and purpose); next week we will tackle the other two. We think that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s aggressive reflation campaign has two main sources. First, after...

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    A Big Purge In China?

    This morning the South China Morning Post, Hong Kong’s English-language daily, reported that the Communist Party has launched a corruption investigation against Zhou Yongkang, a recently retired member of China’s top leadership body and a patron of Bo Xilai, the senior official who recently stood trial for corruption and will probably be handed a lengthy prison sentence. If confirmed, it is huge news, because it would show China’s new president...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Asia's Naked Swimmers

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Japan: Keep Following The Yen

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    Gavekal Research

    Short-Term Japan, Long-Term China

    The weekend news from Asia featured two big items. On Friday night, China’s central bank announced the abolition of all controls on bank lending rates. On Sunday, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s coalition won a majority in the upper house of Parliament big enough for Abe to push through major economic reforms, (but too small for him to re-militarize the country). Both of East Asia’s biggest economies seem primed for major structural reforms under new...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Chartbook: Slow China

    In this presentation, recently delivered to clients at our seminars in the US, Arthur lays out our views on economic growth and structural reform over the next 18 months. To summarize: China’s economy is too reliant on debt-financed infrastructure investment, productivity remains hampered by a bloated state sector, and consumption momentum is not yet self-sustaining. We expect the new government to issue a new urbanization strategy, make...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Get Ready For A Slower China

    The recent gyrations in the Chinese interbank market underscore that the chief risk to global growth now comes from China. Make no mistake: credit policy will tighten substantially in the coming months, as the government tries to push loan growth from its current rate of 20% down to something much closer to the rate of nominal GDP growth, which is about half that. Moreover, in the last few months of the year the new government will likely start...

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China: How Close To Credit Meltdown?

    One of the worries most frequently expressed by clients these days is whether China is in the midst of a credit bubble that could lead either to financial crisis or a dramatic slowdown in growth. Fitch Ratings’ excellent China financial sector analyst has sounded a warning that credit growth is dangerously unsustainable, and the IMF yesterday concluded its annual review of the Chinese economy with a warning that credit pressures are rising and...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (22 May 2013)

    In the latest Five Corners biweekly review of global economics and investment:

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (24 April 2013)

    Long-time GaveKal readers will recall a former publication called Five Corners, in which we presented a series of short takes on global economic and market developments. Today we re-launch Five Corners in a new format, which we hope will enable readers to keep closer track of our core views.

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