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    Gavekal Research

    China Changes Course

    China has turned around. The reform plan unveiled by Communist Party chief Xi Jinping last Friday represents a decisive shift away from the increasingly statist policies of the previous government, and towards a far more market-oriented organization of China’s economy. Worries about whether Xi is strong enough to impose his reformist vision over entrenched opposition from state owned enterprises and local governments will soon disappear. All...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Xi Jinping Changes The Rules Of The Game

    The blockbuster policy package delivered by China’s Communist Party leaders last Friday dispelled doubts about whether Party boss Xi Jinping is a strong reformer. It is clear that he is: the complete “Decision on Deepening Reform” laid out a host of major initiatives including a decisive shift in favor of markets, a relaxation of the one-child policy, the elimination of repressive “re-education through labor” camps, and big proposed reforms in...

    10
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Time To Stop Worrying About Shibor

    Once again all eyes are on the China interbank market, as a modest spike in rates has raised fears of monetary tightening in what is still by a wide margin the world’s fastest growing major economy. We have three things to say on this subject.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: East Asia's Reforms: Thank The US

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Mary Poppins In Japan: Abenomics Explained

    We recently dove into the mysteries of Abenomics, and concluded that the main motivation behind Japan’s suddenly aggressive macro policies is fear of fiscal collapse and eclipse by China (see Why Abenomics, Why Now?). Today we explore the details of the program and assess the likelihood that it will succeed in its aim of boosting Japan’s long-term trend growth rate to 2%, or a bit over double the rate during the two so-called “lost decades”...

    16
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Abenomics, Why Now?

    Like many others, we have spent a lot of time over the past few months trying to figure out where Japan’s “Abenomics” experiment came from, what its purpose is, what it actually consists of, and how likely it is to achieve its aims. Today we try to answer the first two questions (origins and purpose); next week we will tackle the other two. We think that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s aggressive reflation campaign has two main sources. First, after...

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    A Big Purge In China?

    This morning the South China Morning Post, Hong Kong’s English-language daily, reported that the Communist Party has launched a corruption investigation against Zhou Yongkang, a recently retired member of China’s top leadership body and a patron of Bo Xilai, the senior official who recently stood trial for corruption and will probably be handed a lengthy prison sentence. If confirmed, it is huge news, because it would show China’s new president...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Asia's Naked Swimmers

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Japan: Keep Following The Yen

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Short-Term Japan, Long-Term China

    The weekend news from Asia featured two big items. On Friday night, China’s central bank announced the abolition of all controls on bank lending rates. On Sunday, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s coalition won a majority in the upper house of Parliament big enough for Abe to push through major economic reforms, (but too small for him to re-militarize the country). Both of East Asia’s biggest economies seem primed for major structural reforms under new...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Chartbook: Slow China

    In this presentation, recently delivered to clients at our seminars in the US, Arthur lays out our views on economic growth and structural reform over the next 18 months. To summarize: China’s economy is too reliant on debt-financed infrastructure investment, productivity remains hampered by a bloated state sector, and consumption momentum is not yet self-sustaining. We expect the new government to issue a new urbanization strategy, make...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Get Ready For A Slower China

    The recent gyrations in the Chinese interbank market underscore that the chief risk to global growth now comes from China. Make no mistake: credit policy will tighten substantially in the coming months, as the government tries to push loan growth from its current rate of 20% down to something much closer to the rate of nominal GDP growth, which is about half that. Moreover, in the last few months of the year the new government will likely start...

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China: How Close To Credit Meltdown?

    One of the worries most frequently expressed by clients these days is whether China is in the midst of a credit bubble that could lead either to financial crisis or a dramatic slowdown in growth. Fitch Ratings’ excellent China financial sector analyst has sounded a warning that credit growth is dangerously unsustainable, and the IMF yesterday concluded its annual review of the Chinese economy with a warning that credit pressures are rising and...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (22 May 2013)

    In the latest Five Corners biweekly review of global economics and investment:

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (24 April 2013)

    Long-time GaveKal readers will recall a former publication called Five Corners, in which we presented a series of short takes on global economic and market developments. Today we re-launch Five Corners in a new format, which we hope will enable readers to keep closer track of our core views.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    A First Non-Euro Currency Debate

    Last Thursday the Bank of Japan stunned investors with a muscular monetary response that aims to break a deflationary cycle that had seemed to condemn Japan to permanent economic decline. In this piece we debate what the new policy settings mean for investors and crucially, seek to answer the trillion-yen question of where the Japanese currency is headed.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    TINA's Triumph

    In 1980 there was no clear agreement as to how economies should be run. Socialism was still live and prevalent, in forms ranging from the totalitarianism of the USSR and China, the milder copycat versions in India and much of the developing world, Scandinavian social democracy, and British dysfunction. The world’s two biggest economies, the US and Japan, were respectively mired in confidence-sapping stagflation and happily dirigiste. The truth...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Return Of The Great Euro Debate

    Overview — by Arthur Kroeber

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Crazy, But Not That Crazy

    Every so often we get worried calls from readers who have just seen a press report on “ghost cities” and wonder whether we have changed our minds and now agree that the Chinese property bubble is about to burst. The latest spate of calls followed a very scary piece by the US television program 60 Minutes featuring footage of miles upon miles of empty apartment blocks and shopping malls in Zhengzhou, Tianjin and Ordos.

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    Four Shades Of Latin America

    The development economist Simon Kuznets famously said there were four kinds of economies: developed, developing, Japan and Argentina. Impressions from a recent swing through South America to visit clients suggest a similar division. The continent’s economies come in four flavors: neo-liberal, Chavista, Brazil and, you guessed it, Argentina.

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