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    Gavekal Research

    Daily - China's Property Market and the Prophets of Doom

    With the prophets of doom once again circling around China's "property bubble," predicting a collapse in house prices and subsequent economic Armageddon, Draganomics took special care to perform an exhaustive review of the data in its latest China Real Estate and Construction Market Review, published yesterday. The data shows that sales and prices of commercial housing are falling, and will continue to fall at least through mid-...

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    Daily - A Cash Crunch in China?

    Recently clients have expressed concern of a looming cash crunch in China, noting that accounts receivables for listed A-share companies seem to be rising at a very fast clip. Inventories are also building up in some sectors, a further sign of stress in the system. And other tidbits from the 1H11 results season—such as a sharp drop in sales for a leading Chinese excavator firm— have led to fears that construction may soon come to a screeching...

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    GaveKal Daily - Is Oil the New Interest Rate?

    With Brent oil at US$122, and other commodities (gold, silver, corn…) making new highs, the single most important question confronting investors is whether oil has become the new interest rate. In a typical cycle, interest rates rise along with economic activity until nominal rates move above nominal GDP growth, triggering a slow-down in growth. However, in this cycle, the dovishness of central banks appears so deeply ingrained that commodity...

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    GaveKal Daily - Foreign Demand is Behind China's GDP Surprise

    While President Hu Jintao was taking heat from the US Congress yesterday, Chinese GDP numbers were giving off heat — and the Chinese have foreign demand to thank for it. GDP grew by +10.3% in 2010, and growth in Q4 alone was +9.8% YoY, up from +9.6% in Q3 and higher than expected. Rather than the assumed soft landing, China’s economy seems to be going full-speed ahead, and inflation rather than a sharp slowdown seems the biggest risk.

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    Gavekal Research

    Apres Le Deluge: China in the Credit Crunch Aftermath

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-10-15.You can download it here: ApresLeDelugeChinaintheCreditCrunchAftermath.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Threat of China Deflation

    This document is part of our old archive. You can download it by clicking the PDF button above.

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