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E.g., 05-12-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book: The Liquidity Dams

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Arthur Presents At Our June 26, 2012 NY Seminar

    At our recent seminar in New York, Arthur discussed why anecdotal evidence of China's economic strife does not necessarily reflect the bigger picture. Those interested can see his presentation attached.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Rich Banks, Poor Shareholders

    Judging by their profit statements, Chinese banks are flourishing: net profit at the “big five” banks that control nearly two-thirds of the nation’s deposits rose by 19-30% last year. ICBC earned US$32bn, or about $5bn more than JPMorgan Chase. All this despite worries about competition from the irrepressible “shadow finance” sector (see The Shadow Knows...) and a mountain of non-performing loans from the 2009-10 lending spree. Reported NPL...

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    Gavekal Research

    RMB Rising: Lessons From History

    The push to increase the international use of the renminbi is one of the most visible ways in which China’s global role has expanded since the 2008 financial crisis. It is almost certainly the case that the principal motive for RMB internationalization is to undermine capital controls and hence to force the pace of domestic financial reform. There is scant evidence that Beijing has much appetite for the risks and complications that come with a...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    QSCB: The Global Bond Yield Conundrum

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Hot Money Outflows from China?

    For years it was fashionable to bemoan the scourge of “hot money” inflows into China. Now, with China’s foreign exchange reserves registering falls in three of the last four months, it is fashionable to talk about “hot money” flowing out of China. Another bit of evidence for the coming collapse of China? Hardly.

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    Gavekal Research

    20 Years of Strong Growth in China

    Last week Arthur attended a presentation by Justin Yifu Lin, the chief economist at the World Bank. Lin was a key advisor on the Hu/Wen policies of addressing income inequality. He is heading back to Peking University next year where presumably he will regain some of his policy influence. So his views are worth attending to. As always, Lin was optimistic about China’s long-run growth potential, but he echoed our conviction that financial sector...

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    Gavekal Research

    Daily - China's Policy Dilemma

    China is likely to report a sharply lower CPI number tomorrow: around +4.5% YoY for November, down from October's +5.5%, which is also the average figure for the past 12 months. Ordinarily this would be excellent news, but in reality it underscores the very difficult bind that Chinese policymakers have got themselves into. This bind arises first from a conflict between structural and cyclical trends, which are moving in opposite directions...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Steel Demand and the Construction Cycle

    DragonWeek: an opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Turning Japanese

    We dedicated a portion of the latest Monthly Chart Book to comparative demographics. In particular, we looked at the "prime worker ratio", or the ratio of people aged 20-59 to those 60+. This ratio is a significant determinant of long-term growth rates: if a country has a lot of people of prime working age and relatively few retirees, its tends to get higher growth rates.

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Great Rebalancing Myth

    Most observers think China invests too much and consumes too little. As such, it is almost an article of faith that China urgently needs to “rebalance.” But we are not so sure this is true, at least in the short run.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Great Rebalancing (II): Does China Consume Too Little?

    If there’s one thing that outside observers of China’s economy can agree on, it’s that China invests too much and consumes too little. Therefore, today’s big economic challenge is “rebalancing”—reducing investment and increasing consumption. This idea of rebalancing is so common as to amount to an article of faith. But is it true? We’re not so sure, at least in the short run. A close look at the data casts some doubt on the notions that China “...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - The Flight of Household Deposits

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Chinese Banks and Black Holes

    Chinese bank shares have been beaten down to valuations that appear tempting to many of our clients. This temptation is understandable, because we do not buy the doomsday scenario that exploding NPLs will cause a financial crisis. China has plenty of ability to grow out of bad debt problems (see The Magic Debt Mountain). And in the main, banks finance infrastructure and industrial projects that will likely deliver a long-run social return,...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - April 2011 Data

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Renminbi Grows Up, Slowly

    After the 2008 global financial crisis, Chinese officials identified the US-dollar based monetary system as a contributor to the crisis and a source of systemic risk for the global financial system. In response, they began a program for internationalizing the renminbi, whose circulation was hitherto largely restricted to mainland China. This led to much excited commentary about the possibility that the renminbi might replace the dollar as the...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - China's Economic Performance in 2010

    China's economic performance in 2010

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly December 2010 - Consumer China

    China Economic Quarterly Q4 2010: Consumer China

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek Nov 22, 2010

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Party Cancels Premier Wen's Put Option

    We have recently argued that Chinese policy makers face a stark choice between their cherished 8% growth target and the deep structural reforms (fiscal, financial and domestic market) that are required to ensure healthy growth in the medium to long term. Beijing’s refusal to back away from the 8% GDP growth floor that it set during the global financial crisis undermined all efforts at structural reform, and amounted to a “Wen Jiabao put”—the...

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