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E.g., 05-12-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    One China, Three Worries

    The week started badly, and the epicenter of bad news was China. On Monday the Shanghai Composite Index lost -8.5%, its second worst day ever, erasing virtually all of the gains from the previous two weeks of all-out government support. Commodity markets, which had been sickly anyway, followed suit, as did various other China-linked assets, such as mining stocks and the Brazilian real. More broadly, people are starting to question whether the...

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Making Sense Of Corporate China

    Like it or not, financial liberalization means that global portfolios will soon have to include far more Chinese stocks and bonds. Investors need to pay close attention to what they are buying.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The Chinese Company

    In this special issue of the CEQ focusing on the Chinese company, Matthew Forney lays out the rules of the road for investing in China, and how avoid getting caught by the stereotypes of Chinese companies entrepreneurial miracles or fraud-ridden freak shows. Five profiles offer bottom-up lessons on how Chinese companies work.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Land Of Wishful Thinking

    How bad can Brazil get? Much, much worse. A visit last week for a round of discussions with investors, government officials and scholars confirmed an extraordinary deterioration in Latin America’s biggest economy in just the last six months, one that is nowhere close to playing out.

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    More Pain Than Gain

    China is in for a rough year. The economy is in its most fragile state since 1998, at the nadir of the Asian financial crisis. Gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of just 6.1% in the last quarter of 2014, and most key indicators suggest that the first half of 2015 is unlikely to be much better. Industrial profits are weakening sharply, which is likely to dampen wage growth and consumption—the two bright spots over the last couple...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Chinese Equities: A Guide For The Perplexed

    The 60% rally in China’s main onshore stock market was clearly one of the big stories of 2014. Whether this bull market can continue is obviously one of the big questions for 2015. As attentive readers will have noticed, we at Gavekal have formed a wide range of views on this subject. This note is an effort to summarize and, we hope, clarify our various opinions.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Xi’s Long Game

    Summit meetings of APEC, the Asia-Pacific economic cooperation talking shop, rarely produce much of interest beyond a funny group photo of 21 heads of state struggling to look comfortable in ersatz local dress of the host country. But last week’s summit in Beijing, the companion state visit of President Obama, and the subsequent G-20 summit in Australia produced a surprisingly substantial feast of positive news. The deal flow was a testament to...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Hong Kong Endgame

    Today, after a week of excitement, the democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong have largely fizzled out—at least for now. As the city returned to work on Monday morning, the remaining protesters did not try to prevent civil servants from reaching their offices in the government’s downtown headquarters. By midday the numbers outside the complex had dwindled to just a few scores, down from the many tens of thousands that had jammed surrounding...

    12
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Much Pain For How Much Gain In China?

    Xi Jinping and his colleagues have been running China for a year, and they face a crucial set of decisions. They have reined in runaway credit growth and intimidated opponents of structural reforms with an anti-corruption drive of remarkable ferocity. Now the economy is growing at its most sluggish pace in 15 years, and a further slowdown is certain. How much more economic pain are the leaders willing to endure, and how much structural gain can...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Renminbi Reconsidered

    The fall in the renminbi over the last two months has prompted much anxiety. For the past nine years one of the few certainties of global markets was that the Chinese currency would end the year stronger (or at least no weaker) than it began. That certainty has been demolished—which indeed was the goal of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) when it engineered the depreciation. There are now two questions to consider. First, how much further might...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Fast Times In China's Financial Markets

    While most of the Western world was on holiday, the world of Chinese finance kept busy. The past three weeks brought the release of two comprehensive estimates of the nation’s debts (both claiming that the debt problem is far less scary than media reports suggest), another squeeze in money markets which saw short rates jump 100 bp, and a notice allowing local governments to roll over their massive short-term debt in 2014.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Our Holiday Reading List

    Last year we inaugurated a year-end books roundup, in which we asked our staff to review the most interesting things they had read in the past year. Readers enjoyed it, so we renew the tradition this year with 16 selections which, as usual, reflect the eclectic interests of the GaveKal team. Monolingual Anglophone subscribers beware: for added piquancy, and in deference to our firm’s multicultural roots and diverse clientele, the final review (...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Xi Jinping Changes The Rules Of The Game

    The blockbuster policy package delivered by China’s Communist Party leaders last Friday dispelled doubts about whether Party boss Xi Jinping is a strong reformer. It is clear that he is: the complete “Decision on Deepening Reform” laid out a host of major initiatives including a decisive shift in favor of markets, a relaxation of the one-child policy, the elimination of repressive “re-education through labor” camps, and big proposed reforms in...

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Abenomics, Why Now?

    Like many others, we have spent a lot of time over the past few months trying to figure out where Japan’s “Abenomics” experiment came from, what its purpose is, what it actually consists of, and how likely it is to achieve its aims. Today we try to answer the first two questions (origins and purpose); next week we will tackle the other two. We think that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s aggressive reflation campaign has two main sources. First, after...

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    A First Non-Euro Currency Debate

    Last Thursday the Bank of Japan stunned investors with a muscular monetary response that aims to break a deflationary cycle that had seemed to condemn Japan to permanent economic decline. In this piece we debate what the new policy settings mean for investors and crucially, seek to answer the trillion-yen question of where the Japanese currency is headed.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Return Of The Great Euro Debate

    Overview — by Arthur Kroeber

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Nineteen Books For Your Holiday Reading

    Long-time readers know that that at GaveKal we write quite a few books and read even more. With luck, subscribers will already have received this year’s holiday gift: a copy of Tom Miller’s new book China’s Urban Billion: The Story Behind the Biggest Migration in Human History (see here). Tom has worked for years at GK Dragonomics in Beijing, edits our China Economic Quarterly publication, and spent much of the last two years scouring rural and...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly December 2012 - State-owned Enterprises

    One of the most persistent claims made about China’s economy is that an embattled private sector is getting squeezed out by increasingly powerful state-owned enterprises. This claim does not stand up to the evidence: private companies have increased their share of virtually every economic indicator, from exports to employment to bank credit. But that does not mean all is well in corporate China. Though large in aggregate, private firms remain...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Four More Years

    The American electorate may share the same national bed, but they have vastly different dreams. Our take on the election’s significance is similarly bifurcated—a cathartic political cleansing allowing for a deal on the fiscal cliff (Anatole) to disaster (Charles). Arthur asks whether the Republican Party can win nationally without reconciling itself to America’s changed demographics and the realities of the new knowledge-intense economy. Will...

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    From Cheesecake To Broccoli: China's New Diet

    This year the conversation about the Chinese economy’s sharp slowdown has degenerated into an increasingly irrelevant debate. Bears alternately claim that China is collapsing, or that it is only supported by government stimulus that will lead to a bigger collapse later. Beleaguered bulls promise that recovery is just around the corner, when a renewed government stimulus will finally take effect. Both the bears and bulls are wrong, because they...

    2
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