E.g., 29-11-2021
E.g., 29-11-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Arthur Kroeber: A New Era Of Sino-US Relations

    While Donald Trump has threatened to slap huge tariffs on Chinese exports, Arthur thinks this would be an act of self-harm given the economic co-dependence between China and the US. In this video interview, he maps out the likely evolution of relations between the two countries in the years ahead.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Advantage Shifts To China

    Donald Trump’s victory was also a victory for Xi Jinping. Trump’s more isolationist stance and transactional attitude hands the edge to China in the battle for influence in Asia. Trump’s threats of economic warfare with China are also mostly empty; if anything, Beijing has gained a bit of advantage in its bilateral ties with the US.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Power Politics After The Plenum

    Economic policy in China is now entirely beholden to political demands for stability ahead of next year’s Communist Party Congress. Whether things change after depends on how much “core” leader Xi Jinping further strengthens his power, and how much he cares about reform. In this piece, Arthur assesses the outlook after this week’s Sixth Plenum.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Debate: A Trump Win And The Dollar

    As the world seriously tunes into the US presidential election, four Gavekal partners debate the outlook for the US dollar should Donald Trump emerge victorious and set about his promised remaking of the international security order and global trading system.

    25
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Techno-nationalism 2.0

    China’s economy may be slowing, but its ability to cause technological anxiety has never been greater. Many are worried China could succeed in its ambition of becoming a global technology hub, at the expense of existing leaders. This issue of the CEQ focuses on how China is moving up the technology ladder, and the risk this triggers a backlash.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China’s New Mercantilism

    A growth slowdown and financial stress have not dented China’s determination to become one of the world’s technological leaders. The way it is setting about this task threatens to provoke a protectionist backlash.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The State Sector’s New Clothes

    In this issue of the CEQ, we take a close look at state-owned enterprises, which lie at the heart of Xi Jinping's strategy for restoring China to greatness. The goal of Xi’s recent policies is clear: to strengthen SOEs and make them more effective instruments of macro management at home, and more powerful agents of national interests abroad.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Hope And Hard Work On A Shanghai Street

    Accounts of economies are often bloodless affairs, so it is a relief when a writer comes along who can bring to life the people buried beneath the GDP statistics. Rob Schmitz has done just this in a small gem of a book that illuminates China’s economic transformations through portraits of the residents of his neighborhood.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Making Sense Of The Economic Policy Mess

    Xi Jinping’s economic policy seems like a mass of confusion. This is only because he has been coy about stating his true aim: to make the state sector as strong as possible.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2016 - Powerhouse, Menace, Or The Next Japan?

    Two popular narratives about China are that it will either reform its economy and become the next superpower, or fall victim to a dramatic financial crisis. There is a third and perhaps more likely scenario: gradual stagnation, along the lines of 1990s Japan.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Avoiding The Japan Trap

    Growth is slowing, debt is rising, and the government is openly talking about "zombie companies" in key industries. This is China today, but there are also echoes of 1990s Japan. This issue of the CEQ examines the similarities and differences, and handicaps China’s chances of dodging a Japanese scenario of low-growth, high-debt stagnation.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Retreating From An International Renminbi

    Behind the recent turbulence in markets lies an important shift in China’s longer-term currency strategy. The drive to internationalize the renminbi, which required keeping the currency strong, has run out of steam. Now that the central bank has gotten much of what it wanted, internationalization is no longer driving currency policy.

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Never-Ending Slowdown

    Xi Jinping’s ambition to extend China’s global influence is obvious. Whether he can sustain the long-run economic growth needed to finance that ambition is less clear.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Financing China’s Global Dreams

    Beijing has promised to put a lot of money to work building infrastructure across Eurasia. But the actual amount of finance China is likely to mobilize in the next several years is much less than the extravagant headline figures. The biggest constraint on its ambitions to revive is not money, but finding viable projects are to finance.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Two Cheers For Hypocrisy

    Are the world’s two biggest economies headed for a “Thucydides trap,” in which China’s determination to carve out a sphere of influence in Asia provokes an all-out effort by the US to maintain its primacy in the Pacific?

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: China Reshapes Asia

    In the last two years China has made a bold push to expand its influence in Asia, using both the carrot of well-funded infrastructure diplomacy and the stick of forceful assertion of territorial claims in the South and East China Seas. What explains this newly assertive foreign policy, and what are its effects likely to be? This special issue of the China Economic Quarterly tries to answer these questions.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China’s Broken Directional Signal

    There has clearly been a recent breakdown of communication between Beijing and global financial markets. The underlying problem is that policies that are good for China are bad for the rest of the world, and vice-versa. Beijing has not made clear whether it will do what’s right for China, what’s right for the rest of the world, or neither.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Four Lessons And Three Forecasts From A Busy Week In China

    It has been an exciting week in China. Now that the dust has settled and the renminbi seems once more on a firm footing, it is time to step back and consider what we have learned. We offer four lessons, and three forecasts for what the new renminbi regime portends.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Four Lessons And Three Forecasts From A Busy Week In China

    It has been an exciting week in China. Now that the dust has settled and the renminbi seems once more on a firm footing, it is time to step back and consider what we have learned. We offer four lessons, and three forecasts for what the new renminbi regime portends.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The New Exchange Rate Policy

    It looks, at long last, as if China is serious about having a largely market-driven exchange rate. But ignore the silly headlines about “currency wars”. China’s move has little to do with competitive devaluation and a lot to do with enabling the renminbi’s admission into the IMF’s special drawing rights basket.

    0
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