E.g., 15-09-2019
E.g., 15-09-2019
We have found 697 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Big Speech

    Wall Street, with its overwhelming preponderance of Republican voters, might have had the common courtesy to feign some excitement about Mitt Romney’s big speech last night. But for most investors the only big speech this week is the lecture on monetary theory to be delivered by Ben Bernanke today at Jackson Hole.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Spain, Italy Are No California, Yet

    Mitt Romney warned last week that the US must put its fiscal house in order or end up like Greece, Italy and Spain—or even (and this was the controversial part) California. The comment ruffled feathers in the golden state where residents face tax rises and severe spending cuts. Mr. Romney made a clever polemical point, however his basic analysis was dead wrong. For while Californians face hard times, they are unlikely to suffer a southern...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Swiss Franc: Not A Peg For All Seasons

    The Swiss National Bank has constrained the appreciation of the franc, but incurred spill-over effects. The result of liquid funds pouring into safe-haven Switzerland has been rapid credit growth and a surge in property prices. But the question we increasingly hear asked is whether the SNB will stick with the de facto peg since the cost of doing so keeps increasing.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Main Event And Sideshow

    Sooner or later it was bound to happen. Having disappointed the markets for four straight months in a row, the US payroll report on Friday finally produced a decently robust gain of 163,000, which was much better than the consensus expectation for about 100,000. The market reaction was immediate and powerful. The S&P 500 surged 1.9%, one of its best days of the year, and appropriately enough returned to 1,390 which was exactly the level it...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Where Is Draghi's Gran Torino Headed?

    On Monday we compared Mario Draghi to Clint Eastwood’s Dirty Harry when he boasted that he would do everything necessary to save the euro (see How Many Bullets in Draghi’s .44 Magnum?). Yesterday we learned that Draghi had stumbled into the wrong movie. Instead of Dirty Harry, which ends with Eastwood killing the villain with his last bullet, the ECB boss’s press conference replayed Gran Torino, where the gun apparently in Eastwood’s pocket...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How Many Bullets In Draghi's .44 Magnum?

    Mario Draghi’s combative remarks at the global investment conference in London last week are a must read—not because they change the European game, but for how they illustrate the tension between the ECB chief’s tough-guy talk and the limited armoury under his command.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Say Goodbye To UK Austerity

    The -0.7% plunge in Britain’s quarterly GDP announced yesterday—the biggest decline in the British economy since 2009—was officially a “shock” to the markets, because consensus forecasts had predicted a decline of only -0.2%, according to Bloomberg. But the second quarter was bound to show a continuing deterioration in the British economy for two reasons we pointed out three months ago, when the downside “surprise” for the first quarter was...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Sound And Fury Signals

    The flaws of the euro project—which we have been banging on about for the past decade—have now been broadly accepted by the markets. As a result, one of my main investment themes since last autumn has been that Europe was much less likely to create market-moving surprises, whether up or down. European politics would create lots of short-term volatility, but the trends in global markets would be driven by economic news from the rest of the world...

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Euro Debate Returns

    The markets reacted very positively to the announcements that followed the 20th ‘save-the-euro’ summit. So, like 20th marriages, is this the triumph of hope over experience? Or perhaps a cynical “mark-up” exercise of risk assets in the last hours of trading before the quarter’s end? Or did we see the beginning of a solution to the crisis finally emerge? The general media was quick to portray the summit as a victory of a “united South” against a...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    It May Be Time To Say "Auf Wiedersehen"

    Now that the Greek election is over, with the pro-bailout parties gaining enough seats for a slim majority, Europe can return to the regular cycle of panic, relief, disappointment and renewed panic, that we have observed for the past two years. This time, however, the relief rally may be even shorter than usual, since the market’s attention will soon shift from Athens to Madrid, Paris and, above all, Berlin. Since Greece has no chance of...

    18
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    ECB Role Shift The Real Game Changer

    As the Euro crisis intensifies and yields on Spanish bonds reach new heights, the pressure on EMU policymakers has become intense. Markets are already looking through Sunday’s Greek election toward the EU leaders summit on June 28-29 to see if a grand bargain can be struck to forestall a Grexit and restore some confidence in GIPSI financial systems. From what we understand, Francois Hollande and Mario Monti have agreed to champion the following...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Expect Another QE Dousing In The UK

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Markets: The US Matters More

    What’s really driving the markets these days? The obvious answer is Europe. Everyone is so mesmerised by the euro’s slow-motion train crash that all other stories have been pushed into the background. But could it be that Europe’s market influence is overrated for this very reason? After all, markets are not moved by events; they are moved by unexpected events. And once a story has been on the front page of every newspaper in the world for a...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Euro Choices Are Getting Starker

    As has become painfully obvious, we have now moved to the next chapter of the euro crisis. Southern Europe’s vulnerable bond markets are again under pressure (Spanish 10y yields have risen to 6.2%, and the Italian counterparts are at 5.9%), European equity markets have sold off brutally and EMU bank stocks have now fallen to the lowest level since late 1987.

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Euro's Greek Election Test

    Nobody can answer for certain whether the euro will survive a likely second Greek election—not even Angela Merkel. The most useful approach at this stage, rather than trying to predict an unknowable future, is to understand the sequence of events that could lead to the euro’s disintegration or survival after the tumultuous events of the past week. These are the scenarios we consider below.

    12
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Financial Consequences Of Britain's Double-Dip

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Fiscal Cliffs And Political Guardrails

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Inflation Is Back For Good

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A "Riotous" UK Budget

    Yesterday’s budget in Britain was treated by the markets as a non-event --and that was a correct assessment of its macroeconomic impact. But George Osborne’s package of tax and spending changes, which was presented as more or less fiscally neutral, could nevertheless turn out to be a political and financial milestone. The good news is that, by cutting Britain’s top rate of income tax from 50% to 45%, with hints that it would be further reduced...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Bond Correction Begins

    The meltdown in global bond markets we suggested in our Quarterly Strategy Chart Book last week and predicted more firmly in Monday’s daily report, Where Will The Correction Strike?, seems to have started. The price of the 30-year US Treasury bond plunged almost 4 points in the past two days. Even more significantly, yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries broke out yesterday from the narrow trading range that held for five months. If this...

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Where Will The Correction Strike?

    After one of the longest and strongest uninterrupted rallies on record, the market is over-extended and there is the risk of a sharp correction—or maybe something much worse. On that much almost everyone can agree. Nor will the correction be delayed by Friday’s publication of yet another above-expectation US job report, bolstered by big upward revisions to earlier figures plus a sizeable improvement in the labour participation statistics? On the...

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    QSCB: The Global Bond Yield Conundrum

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Risk-on, Risk-off Euro-Equities Trade

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The United States Of Europe

    Another month, another failed Euro-summit – the seventeenth in the two years since the Greek crisis, according to a Reuters count. Monday’s summit failed to agree on policies for growth and on details of a new austerity pact. Angela Merkel embarrassed everybody with a plan to impose euro-Viceroys on Greece and other debtor countries. Financial markets concluded that Portugal would inevitably follow Greece into debt default. And with Merkel...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The LTRO Carry-Trade In Action

    Nobody knows whether today’s Long Term Refinancing Operation in Europe will be bigger or smaller than the first LTRO in December (i.e, The ECB’s 489bn Euro Christmas Gift). But one thing is certain: the ECB’s unprecedented liquidity injections have been far more effective in creating some (temporary?) stability in European financial markets than any of the treaties, bailouts and austerity programs that have obsessed politicians and media...

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Greek Riots And Orderly Breakups

    The latest “strategy to save the euro” will again end in failure. That much is clear from the riots in Greece and from the public warnings by Greek politicians that they will not be bound by any deal negotiated by the technocratic government imposed on them by Brussels and Berlin. Even more important was the corresponding promise from Francois Hollande, the probable President of France after the May election, that he too would reopen the half-...

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Euro Woes and German Culpability

    The world watched with horror and fascination this week as investigators sought the cause of an entirely avoidable shipwreck in Italy that could have cost as many as 40 lives. Meanwhile, the cause of a much greater wreck—that of the good ship euro—is heaving into view. As Greece moves towards default, as France, Italy and Spain suffer credit downgrades, and as negotiations on last month’s fiscal treaty reach deadlock, the euro is heading for the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Possible US Growth Surprise

    There are three broad reasons to believe that the US economy will grow more strongly than the consensus expectation of +2.1% (see previous page)—and much more strongly than the average of +1.5% recorded in the last four quarters.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Best Macro Trade for 2012?

    One of the main themes of our research since last summer has been the possibility of a sharp improvement in the US economy—and the likelihood that US economic conditions, whether good or bad, would set the tone for financial markets in 2012, even while investors and policymakers remained obsessed with the chaos in Europe. In other words, the US economy would produce the “signal” for markets, while Europe would create a lot of random noise. This...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - The UK in 2012

    To say something useful about the UK’s economic prospects in 2012, we have to begin by turning the clock back one year. At this time last year, the consensus view in the City of London was for Bank of England rate hikes to begin as early as May 2011 and for rates to be back around 2% by the end of the year! Given these absurdly hawkish monetary expectations amid over-optimism about UK growth prospects in the wake of the 2010 election, it was...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    ...And Now for the Good News

    We reviewed some of the many downsides of the latest EU summit in Starting With the Bad News.... Now let us turn to the good news, at least for the Eurocrats and perhaps, in the short-term, for the European markets. The potential support from the ECB is the one part of the summit deal that could turn out to be much stronger than it seemed at first sight. While Mario Draghi’s public statements were less than helpful, they were presumably directed...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Starting With the Bad News...by Anatole Kaletsky

    Although the usual post-summit rally should not be too hard to orchestrate in the thin markets around Christmas, there was more bad news than good for the dwindling band of bureaucrats and politicians who are determined to save the Euro, regardless of the costs to the democracies and economies of Europe. We will begin with the “bad” news–partly because our bias is to treat bad news for the Euro as good news for the world and Europe, but mainly...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Is the Spending Too High or Are Taxes Too Low?

    While investors around the world have been obsessed with the slow-motion train crash that is the Eurozone, a steady improvement in US economic statistics has powered a stealth rally on Wall Street since early October. But is this happy dichotomy about to disappear? Not because Europe has any chance of resolving what looks increasingly like a terminal crisis, but because attention shifts back to politics in Washington—and investors realise that...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A World Financed by Equity Instead of Debt

    Everyone agrees that there is too much debt in the world. But what exactly does this mean? Every dollar of debt represents a dollar of someone’s savings and investment. So do we really mean that there has been too much saving and investment in recent years? In China maybe, but surely not in the Western world.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why Has the Pound Been So Strong?

    The Pound has always traded between the Dollar and the Euro (and before that the Deutschemark). There has literally never been an extended period in which Sterling has fallen against the Dollar, while the Euro has gone up:

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What Will Keep the Rally Going?

    The markets turned round abruptly on October 3 and have been on a tear ever since. So much so, that October is the best performing month since December 1991. The question now is whether this new trend will continue or whether the next big move in an irrationally exuberant market is likely to be another big lurch down. The December 1991 surge foreshadowed a decade-long bull market. The answer for October 2011 will largely depend on what really...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Germany Plays Hardball at EU Summit

    Angela Merkel has consistently promised to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the Euro. With equal consistency and persistence she has always added a modest qualification – “I mean, of course , whatever it takes, apart from the two things that would actually work”. Those two actions would be the creation of Euro-bonds joint and severally guaranteed by Germany along with all the other Euro countries, or large-scale purchases of government bonds...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Is it Too Early (or Too Late) to Turn Bullish?

    Is it too early to get bullish? Or is it already too late? Since bottoming out on October 3, the S&P 500 has risen +11.4% and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index by +12.8%. Anatole recently suggested that while Europe continued to dominate the headlines, the main driving force for the markets for the rest of the year would probably be the balance between recovery and recession in the US economy, and he reminded clients of our longstanding view that...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Looks Like the US May Avoid Recession After All

    While the outlook in Europe remains uncertain as we await yet another string of “decisive” events (Oct. 23 EMU bailout talks, Nov. 3 deadline on bank recap plan, etc.), markets have gotten some positive data and signaling from the other two major overhangs to global sentiment: China and the US. Beijing sent a supportive signal yesterday by allowing the State Council-controlled Central Huijin Investment to buy bank shares (although Arthur is...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - The BOE's QE

    The Bank of England’s decision yesterday to start a second round of quantitative easing was almost drowned out by the noise about banking rescues out of Europe. But it was a genuinely important event with instructive features for the rest of Europe and the US. We have been saying since the beginning of the year that QE2 in Britain was much more likely to happen than QE3 in America and that inflation running at double its target rate would not...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Last Thing the World Needs...by Anatole Kaletsky

    Two weeks ago we suggested that the main source of risk for financial markets would no longer be the Euro, whose internal contradictions investors had finally recognised over the summer. Instead, we argued that more genuine uncertainty now stems from the US economic outlook and this uncertainty will be particularly pronounced in the next few weeks, which also marks the end of the financial “hurricane season” from August to October. In the next...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    America Still Makes the Weather

    What is the main threat to the markets and the world economy in the year ahead? The usual answer these days is a chaotic Greek default, leading perhaps to the breakup of the Euro or to a Lehman-style banking crisis in Europe. But the very fact that everyone keeps repeating this mantra—from our clients in Australia and Hong Kong to Tim Geithner in his visit to Poland—suggests to us that the biggest threats probably lie elsewhere, at least for the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Germany Really Will Pay

    Anxiety about the Euro has now intensified to the point where Eurocrats in Brussels talk openly about the risk that the Euro will break up and the US Treasury Secretary feels obliged to fly across the Atlantic to read the Riot Act to his European colleagues. As longstanding detractors of the Frankenstein currency, some of us here at GaveKal do not know whether to laugh or to cry about the apparent vindication of our Euroscepticism. Contrary to...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Stimulus Without a Big Bill

    US economic stimulus need not mean spending vast amounts of public money. After all, the key to any improvement in employment lies in construction and housing, which power the early stages of recovery in normal economic cycles. Today US housing is so cheap and infrastructure so badly in need of renewal, that private savings could easily be mobilised to revive construction, if only President Obama engaged with US business and finance in a...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - The Painful Resilience of the Euro

    In a recent piece on the Euro, our friend Simon Ogus of DSG Asia remarked: “Germans are already deeply unhappy with what is going on… and historically speaking, one would rather see Greeks on the streets than Germans’” Now as we have been highlighting (see A German Uberrumbelt), Germany’s simmering unhappiness could soon be coming to a boil, what with the September 7th constitutional court decision on the legality of the EMU bailout packages,...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why QE3 Won't Happen at Jackson

    It is a year since August 27, 2010, when Ben Bernanke used his annual speech at Jackson Hole to pre-announce QE2. Amazingly, there seem to be many investors on Wall Street who expect this Friday’s Jackson Hole speech to offer some reassurance to the markets by hinting at a third round of QE. This expectation seems amazing not just because of the political pressure against QE3 from the likes of presidential candidates such as Rick Perry or...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Way of the Sudo

    One of the greatest dangers for the Euro has to be the risk that Germany finally balks at having to come up with bailout after bailout to save its profligate neighbors. While we are certainly not there yet, it may be still be interesting to ponder how such a development could play out. Initially, this move could be triggered by a Constitutional Court judgment, mass resignations by Bundesbank directors or a conservative political rebellion...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Will the Sell-Off Trigger More Policy Cooperation?

    What is causing the selling panic? As usual, there are many possible answers, but the two mentioned most often in market reports and newspaper headlines—the US credit downgrade and the crisis in Italy—are probably overplayed. The US downgrade may inspire lurid headlines, but it has to be viewed by the markets as a non-event or a joke. Indeed, US Treasury bonds enjoyed one of their biggest ever rallies the day after S&P’s announcement, and...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - The Definitive EMU Solution: Round Six

    For the sixth time in 18 months European leaders have announced a definitive solution to the Euro crisis. Should this version of the final bailout be taken any more seriously than the first and second solutions to the Greek crisis in May and September 2010 or the Irish bailout of December 2010 or the Portuguese rescue package of March 2011 or the breakthrough vote in the Greek parliament of last month? The supposedly good news for markets was...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    'Lazy Brits' and Undervalued Gilts

    Nearly a year ago, after Britain’s new Conservative government spelt out in full its highly restrictive fiscal policy, we noted that consolidation would be good for the economy in the long-term, but would also put Britain at greater risk of a double-dip recession than any other G7 country. Thus we argued that monetary policy would stay easier for longer in Britain than in the US or Europe, and concluded that British Gilts were probably the world...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Ulterior Motives for China's Interest in the Euro?

    One of the greatest mysteries of the 18 months since the start of the Greek crisis has been the strength of the Euro. One of the most convincing explanations for this phenomenon has been the support for the Euro provided by China and other Asian governments and sovereign wealth funds. Many traders have noted that, regardless of any bad news from Europe during the London trading day, the Euro usually rebounded in Asia after the main forex...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - The Odd Timing of the IEA Oil Reserves Release

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) yesterday took the market by surprise and announced the release of 60mn barrels from strategic petroleum reserves, around half of which will come from the US. This is only the third time IEA member countries have used reserves in this way. Precedents include 2005 (when Hurricane Katrina damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico), and 1990 (following Iraq's invasion of...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Benign US Growth Scenario Remains on Track

    Soft patch or double dip? All eyes in the markets are again on the US economy and the risks of an aborted recovery are now more serious than ever because the world can no longer expect to be pulled out of trouble by China and other emerging markets. But views on the US economic outlook appear to be more polarized than at any time since 2009.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    After QE2: Could the US Target Housing Directly?

    With last Friday’s payrolls coming in even worse than expected, investors have to start considering what other stimulus options the US Government and the Federal Reserve may contemplate after the end of QE2. In our Quarterly Strategy Chart Book, published last week, we argued that it is unlikely that the soft patch would continue through the summer, and that even if it does, the Fed would not respond with QE3. The Fed appears to have reached...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    QSCB - 3Q11 - Life After QE2

    Many of the key risks in global financial markets can ultimately be linked to the Fed's enthusiasm for printing money (which even, to some extent, exacerbates the Euro crisis). Thus, the end of QE2 in June will likely bring the world economy to a cross-roads. For this reason, we have decided to focus our latest Quarterly on what the end of QE2 should entail.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Update on the Euro Debate

    Investors currently have three major issues to confront: 1) The looming end of US quantitative easing, 2) Tightening in China and its potential impact on domestic growth and global risk assets and 3) The sustainability of Europe’s monetary union. Of these three issues, we have argued that the last one has the greatest scope for unleashing serious disruptions in global financial markets. This is why, on any given day, a good ten emails fly around...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Mervyn King as a Contra-Indicator?

    There was a time when central bankers used to pride themselves on their ability to surprise and confuse the markets. These days transparency and predictability are generally viewed as the hallmarks of sound central banking—except at the Bank of England, which seems to believe that confusion and obfuscation are back in style.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    UK Growth & Why Buying Gilts Makes Sense

    While the dollar tumbled this week in response to the US economy’s meagre 1.8% annualised growth rate, the pound was boosted by an almost identical British GDP figure. The bullish reaction in Britain, based on the view that the figure might have been even worse and that the Bank of England would start to tighten regardless in the autumn–seemed even more misguided than overly pessimistic view of the US statistics discussed on today’s Daily. The...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - What Will the Fed Make of the Weak US GDP Numbers?

    Coming one day after Ben Bernanke’s press conference, the abrupt weakening of the US economy suggested by the first quarter GDP figures can be interpreted in one of two ways. If the slump in economic growth from a healthy 3.1% in the fourth quarter to a clearly inadequate 1.8% in Q1, reflected the true condition of the US economy, this largely explained why Bernanke sounded so dovish. Since 1.8% growth is clearly insufficient to reduce...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Speeches Instead of Safety Nets

    After a tragic plane crash, all the leaders of the European Union are wafted up to Heaven and find themselves in a long queue, snaking off into the distance with no end in sight. After a few minutes, the presidents and prime ministers lose patience and start to grumble, shouting to an attendant angel: “Don’t you know who we are? We are the leadership of the European Union. We demand immediate entry to the VIP lounge.” The angel mumbles something...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Running with the Bulls in a World of Extreme Risk

    In the dozens of meetings we have had recently with clients in Europe and the US two messages have come through loud and clear. The first is that we at GaveKal are now worried about the short-term prospects for the world economy and financial markets. The second is that almost all the investors we meet have gone through the opposite transition. After asking repeatedly over the last two years: “is it time to sell this rally?”, we now find almost...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why Diverging EU-US Rates Policy is Dangerous

    There have been plenty of occasions in the past when US and European monetary policy has differed enormously without causing any trouble, so how could the small divergences of monetary policy described on the previous page have had such enormous financial impact? There seem to have been two broad reasons—US currency weakness and German inflation. As shown in the chart below, each of the financial shocks identified (yellow shading) coincided with...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Past Clashes in EU-US Monetary Policy

    As Shakespeare said, “when sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions”. Just as the world economy has finally recovered from the 2008 disaster, financial markets are suddenly confronted with three potentially catastrophic and unpredictable risks. The two horrors understandably dominating the headlines are the earthquake in Japan and Libya’s descent into civil war. Both these events, in addition to their human toll, threaten...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A European Tour d’Horizon

    Print Version:

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why Ireland Can Drive a Hard Bargain with the EU

    Friday’s Irish election is the next big challenge for the Euro-zone’s financial stability. There has been very little market comment about the probability that Ireland’s new government will renegotiate the terms of the EU/IMF bailout, even though the Fine Gael-Labour Opposition, who are almost certain to form the next government, have promised to do just that. But if we look at what investors have been doing, as opposed to what they are saying,...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A New Mandate For OECD Central Banks?

    Perhaps the most lasting effect of the financial crisis may be on the reputations of central banks. After the resignations of Axel Weber from the ECB and Kevin Warsh from the Fed, came last week’s humiliating gyrations about interest rate policy by the BoE (see Mervyn King’s Capitulation)—which in turn were followed immediately by an attack on the Monetary Policy Committee by one of its own members and an almost unanimous outcry from the British...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Mervin King's Capitulation

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Fed's Case

    The objections to the unemployment and money supply statistics used to justify interest rates have more to do with economic theory than with the figures themselves. Unemployment is a lagging indicator and many monetarists have reinterpreted the original work of Milton Friedman to argue that that interest rates need to start rising long before unemployment begins to approach its “natural rate”. These people also tend to believe it is the “narrow...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Dovish Fed, a Dovish ECB and a Dovish BoE

    Despite the demands for tighter monetary policy now emanating from an unholy alliance of the Chinese Politburo, the Tea Party, the Bundesbank and the Wall Street Journal, last week the Fed and the ECB made clear that early rate hikes are not on their agenda (though Will argues on page five that the ECB may be tighter than it appears). And the Bank of England is likely to send the same message after Thursday’s meeting of the MPC. So why are the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - A Ricardian Debate on the Back of the UK's Poor GDP Numbers

    Of the many debates currently animating our internal meetings, the most passionate must be the one between Charles and Anatole on whether increases, or cutbacks, in government spending are harmful or helpful for economic recovery.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Inflation is China’s Problem, Not the Fed’s

    If there is a contrary indicator even more reliable than a cover-story in The Economist or Time Magazine, it is the mood at the World Economic Forum, which begins this Wednesday in Davos. Last year the “spirit of Davos” was focused mainly on whether the global economic recovery would be sustainable, whether central banks and governments would tighten their monetary and fiscal policies prematurely, and whether the euro would be blown up by street...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Gilts vs OATS

    In the next few years the world will see a fascinating controlled experiment in economic policy. The US and Britain, two economies with very similar structural problems and cyclical positions have started to pursue diametrically opposite fiscal policies. Britain, from this month onwards, has begun the fastest and most ambitious fiscal consolidation ever attempted by a G7 country; meanwhile political gridlock in Washington has more or less...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Easy Fed and a Strong Dollar

    Whatever central bankers may think about the rights and wrongs of Charles’s arguments about the natural rate of interest (and many official economists, especially in Europe and Japan, certainly share Charles’s concerns), the reality is that the Fed is not going to start raising interest rates in the first half of 2011. This can be almost guaranteed following last week’s disappointing non-farm payroll figures. Such is the political importance of...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    More Europe or Less Europe?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-14.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners101214.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The UK in 2011

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-14.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1012141.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (10 December 2010)

    This document is part of our old archive. You can download it by clicking the PDF button above.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A New Idea to Save the Euro

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-02.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment1012021.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    EMU Debt Crisis, Part III

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-29.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment1011291.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Euro Debate, Part II

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-26.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment101126.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Who is the Better Card Player?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-17.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment101117.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Will US Fiscal Woes Weaken Special Interests?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-16.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011166.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What If Ireland Taps the EU Emergency Fund?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-12.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment101112.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Debate Over QE2

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-03.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011032.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Long Gilt, Short Treasuries Trade

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-03.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011034.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Post November 2nd Environment

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-19.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010191.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Britain's Quantitative Easing

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-19.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010193.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China's Role in Japan's Intervention

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-20.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009202.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Is the 'New Normal' Evidence Really There?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-20.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009203.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Conversations on the Yen Intervention

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-16.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment100916.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Important Turn in US Jobs

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-06.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009061.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How Low Will US Housing Go?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-06.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009062.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Discussing the European Outperformance

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-05.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment100805.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Is It Still Time to Overweight Europe?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-03.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment100803.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Over-spinning the Double Dip

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-12.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1007123.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Britian Starts First

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-05.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners100705.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The G20 and the Risks of Corporate Cash-Hoarding

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-05.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1007051.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The G20 and Private Sector Cash-Hoarding

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-06-28.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1006283.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The UK Budget Goes Down Well

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-06-28.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1006284.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book 3Q10 - The Great Rebalancing

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-06-10.You can download it here: GKQuarterlyStrategy1006101.pdf

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Announcing the publication of Anatole's New Book: Capitalism 4.0

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-05-26.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment100526.pdf

    0
Show me: results