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E.g., 05-05-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Control Engineers

    “Words are, of course, the most powerful drug used by mankind,” so said Rudyard Kipling. When central bankers meet next month for the annual Jackson Hole shindig, they can ruminate on their success being increasingly dictated less by what they do, than what they say. Take the European Central Bank and Bank of England which in recent months have been fairly taciturn next to a loquacious Federal Reserve. Yet, by yesterday verbalizing forward...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Carney Set To Ride A British Revival

    Mark Carney, the former head of the Bank of Canada who has just taken over as Governor of the Bank of England, will today chair his first monthly meeting of Britain’s Monetary Policy Committee. The meeting is unlikely to produce any change in policy, if only because six of the nine MPC members have consistently voted against additional quantitative easing. Yet Carney is already being hailed as Britain’s economic savior. The BBC even paid him the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Portugal Goes Rogue?

    Nothing so disturbs a disciplinarian teacher as the prospect of a model pupil turning into the class rebel. With Portugal’s center-right coalition government seemingly on the brink of collapse, such are the fears in Brussels and Berlin. Lisbon has pushed through painful structural reform, stuck to fiscal austerity and in the process improved a chronic trade deficit. Hence, the fallout from Portugal going rogue and rejecting the Troika medicine...

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    Gavekal Research

    A New Global Growth Story

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    Gavekal Research

    It's The Economy, Not The 'Tapering'

    Friday’s better than expected US payrolls were too ambiguous to settle definitely the debate about whether the US economy is accelerating or slowing, but there was one issue this release should have settled once and for all. Contrary to what we read every day on Bloomberg and Reuters, financial markets have been paying almost no attention to the debate about “Fed tapering” that has obsessed Wall Street pundits and media talking heads.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Can Japan Stop The Rout?

    The sudden collapse of Japanese equity prices last month had many possible explanations (see An Odd Divergence) but one that deserves more attention is the simplest—there were more sellers than buyers. What makes this banal observation potentially useful in Japan’s case is the possibility that the imbalance between buyers and sellers may be about to shift. More precisely this imbalance may soon be affected by a change in government regulation...

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    Gavekal Research

    This Is Not A Peak: It's A Bull Market

    When stock market prices hit new highs almost daily a sickening sense of vertigo is hard to avoid. As we pointed out two months ago, investors naturally tend to expect a long descent once they reach the top of the mountain. But how literally should we take such mountaineering metaphors? Bearish analysts often claim that previous stock market peaks have always been followed by precipitous falls. The record high of October 2007, for example, which...

    16
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    Gavekal Research

    The ECB May Surprise: By Not Easing

    What are European investors hoping for? Or, to put the question more forcefully (and give away our conclusion) what have they been smoking? The European economy is going from bad to worse. While economic and financial indicators from around the world have recently been disappointing, the US news has suggested nothing worse than the risk of another modest summer “soft patch,” while China has been settling into structurally slower, but still very...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Italy Delays The Swan Song

    European markets stabilised yesterday and Italian bonds and equities enjoyed some of their biggest gains for months after the unexpected return of Giorgio Napolitano as president. At first sight the re-election of an 87-year old for a second seven-year term that he didn’t want and that public opinion certainly did not support may seem like a confirmation that Italy has descended into chaos and ungovernability. Yet the markets’ positive reaction...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    UK's Backdoor Escape From Austerity

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Et Tu, Italy?

    The Italian “protest vote” has reverberated far and wide: equities fell, the VIX surged 34%, investors scrambled to safe-haven bonds and Japan’s crusade to weaken its currency suffered a major setback, with the biggest overnight jump in the yen since 2011. Markets seem to fear that Italian voters have stuck a knife into the back of the euro project. But we are not so sure the drama of this election will turn out to be as Shakespearean as all...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Sequester: A Looming Non-Event

    It has been a nice lazy holiday weekend in the United States, with President Obama on a golfing trip in Florida, apparently brushing off a parting shot from House Speaker John Boehner, who warned on Thursday that “the sequester will be in effect until there are cuts and reforms that put us on a path to balance the budget in the next 10 years.”

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    Gavekal Research

    On Hedging A "Rotation"

    By now our regular readers must surely know that we believe equities represent the most attractive asset class and that safe haven bond markets are very far from “safe”. We are certainly not alone in this view, as evidenced by the very vigorous inflows to equity markets over the past few months. We believe this “Great Rotation” is likely to be sustained becausea) institutional allocations to stock markets remain very low (hedge funds seem to be...

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    Gavekal Research

    Not A Sterling Year For The UK

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    Gavekal Research

    The Great Rotation Debate

    17
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    Gavekal Research

    The US Recovery (Or Not)

    The US economy seems to have burst out of the gate this month, with very strong figures on housing, employment, industrial production and retail sales. This contrasts with widespread expectations of economic weakness after the election and ahead of the fiscal cliff drama, when consumer and business confidence had dived—small business confidence as measured by the NFIB, for example, suffered a bigger collapse in November than in the month of the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Japan Shakes The World?

    The themes that obsessed financial markets in 2012 emanated from the US, Europe and China, and they were all largely negative. Now that the US fiscal cliff and a euro breakup have been averted, and China’s economy again proved it was not a massive investment bubble on the brink of implosion, attention should turn elsewhere. In 2013, Japan—where politics and monetary policy have suddenly got exciting—could prove to be a major story.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Fiscal Lift

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Back From The Edge

    It appears that the urge for a warm fire and some holiday cheer has the warring parties in Washington heading for a fiscal truce. We seem to be inching toward a compromise that both reflects the post-presidential election political realities and shows what is possible among responsible people of good will. Since the Fiscal Cliff emerged as a serious concern we have consistently argued that political self-preservation would ultimately stop an act...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    A Clown Comeback Unlikely In Italy

    1
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