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E.g., 05-05-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Deficit Deniers Of The World Unite

    In our politically correct age the pressure to bow down before certain popularly accepted and apparently proven “truths” can be overwhelming. In the aftermath of the US elections, two such nostrums are unnecessarily vexing investors—the urgency of deficit reduction and fear of higher taxes. I believe that both of these obsessions will soon be forgotten—and as a result equity markets will be stronger in 2013 than generally expected.

    18
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    Gavekal Research

    European Seminar Presentations - With Anatole, Charles, Francois And Andrew

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Four More Years

    The American electorate may share the same national bed, but they have vastly different dreams. Our take on the election’s significance is similarly bifurcated—a cathartic political cleansing allowing for a deal on the fiscal cliff (Anatole) to disaster (Charles). Arthur asks whether the Republican Party can win nationally without reconciling itself to America’s changed demographics and the realities of the new knowledge-intense economy. Will...

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Mystical Rapture And The Euro

    Of all the miracles, or conjuring tricks, behind the euro’s unlikely survival, perhaps the most intriguing is that investors buy-in to the hypnotic power of magic words. Angela Merkel or Mario Draghi have only to say “Abracadabra” and all the Masters of the Universe fall into an obedient trance. What else but magic or hypnosis explains the narrowing of bond spreads, the rally in the euro and the powerful gains in Spanish equities in response to...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Fed's Money Tree

    QE3 has set off a debate not just over whether this is good or bad (most here agree it is bad) but on what are the short– vs long-term effects on economies as well as markets. Louis and Charles make the contrarian argument that open-ended and more aggressive quantitative easing will ultimately take away, rather than add, to global liquidity, and warn that investors should prepare for a dollar crisis further down the line. Anatole and Francois...

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    Gavekal Research

    Spain, Italy Are No California, Yet

    Mitt Romney warned last week that the US must put its fiscal house in order or end up like Greece, Italy and Spain—or even (and this was the controversial part) California. The comment ruffled feathers in the golden state where residents face tax rises and severe spending cuts. Mr. Romney made a clever polemical point, however his basic analysis was dead wrong. For while Californians face hard times, they are unlikely to suffer a southern...

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    How Many Bullets In Draghi's .44 Magnum?

    Mario Draghi’s combative remarks at the global investment conference in London last week are a must read—not because they change the European game, but for how they illustrate the tension between the ECB chief’s tough-guy talk and the limited armoury under his command.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    The Euro Debate Returns

    The markets reacted very positively to the announcements that followed the 20th ‘save-the-euro’ summit. So, like 20th marriages, is this the triumph of hope over experience? Or perhaps a cynical “mark-up” exercise of risk assets in the last hours of trading before the quarter’s end? Or did we see the beginning of a solution to the crisis finally emerge? The general media was quick to portray the summit as a victory of a “united South” against a...

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    The Euro's Greek Election Test

    Nobody can answer for certain whether the euro will survive a likely second Greek election—not even Angela Merkel. The most useful approach at this stage, rather than trying to predict an unknowable future, is to understand the sequence of events that could lead to the euro’s disintegration or survival after the tumultuous events of the past week. These are the scenarios we consider below.

    12
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    Gavekal Research

    Where Will The Correction Strike?

    After one of the longest and strongest uninterrupted rallies on record, the market is over-extended and there is the risk of a sharp correction—or maybe something much worse. On that much almost everyone can agree. Nor will the correction be delayed by Friday’s publication of yet another above-expectation US job report, bolstered by big upward revisions to earlier figures plus a sizeable improvement in the labour participation statistics? On the...

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    QSCB: The Global Bond Yield Conundrum

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    Gavekal Research

    The United States Of Europe

    Another month, another failed Euro-summit – the seventeenth in the two years since the Greek crisis, according to a Reuters count. Monday’s summit failed to agree on policies for growth and on details of a new austerity pact. Angela Merkel embarrassed everybody with a plan to impose euro-Viceroys on Greece and other debtor countries. Financial markets concluded that Portugal would inevitably follow Greece into debt default. And with Merkel...

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Greek Riots And Orderly Breakups

    The latest “strategy to save the euro” will again end in failure. That much is clear from the riots in Greece and from the public warnings by Greek politicians that they will not be bound by any deal negotiated by the technocratic government imposed on them by Brussels and Berlin. Even more important was the corresponding promise from Francois Hollande, the probable President of France after the May election, that he too would reopen the half-...

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    The Best Macro Trade for 2012?

    One of the main themes of our research since last summer has been the possibility of a sharp improvement in the US economy—and the likelihood that US economic conditions, whether good or bad, would set the tone for financial markets in 2012, even while investors and policymakers remained obsessed with the chaos in Europe. In other words, the US economy would produce the “signal” for markets, while Europe would create a lot of random noise. This...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    ...And Now for the Good News

    We reviewed some of the many downsides of the latest EU summit in Starting With the Bad News.... Now let us turn to the good news, at least for the Eurocrats and perhaps, in the short-term, for the European markets. The potential support from the ECB is the one part of the summit deal that could turn out to be much stronger than it seemed at first sight. While Mario Draghi’s public statements were less than helpful, they were presumably directed...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Starting With the Bad News...by Anatole Kaletsky

    Although the usual post-summit rally should not be too hard to orchestrate in the thin markets around Christmas, there was more bad news than good for the dwindling band of bureaucrats and politicians who are determined to save the Euro, regardless of the costs to the democracies and economies of Europe. We will begin with the “bad” news–partly because our bias is to treat bad news for the Euro as good news for the world and Europe, but mainly...

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    Gavekal Research

    Is the Spending Too High or Are Taxes Too Low?

    While investors around the world have been obsessed with the slow-motion train crash that is the Eurozone, a steady improvement in US economic statistics has powered a stealth rally on Wall Street since early October. But is this happy dichotomy about to disappear? Not because Europe has any chance of resolving what looks increasingly like a terminal crisis, but because attention shifts back to politics in Washington—and investors realise that...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A World Financed by Equity Instead of Debt

    Everyone agrees that there is too much debt in the world. But what exactly does this mean? Every dollar of debt represents a dollar of someone’s savings and investment. So do we really mean that there has been too much saving and investment in recent years? In China maybe, but surely not in the Western world.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Has the Pound Been So Strong?

    The Pound has always traded between the Dollar and the Euro (and before that the Deutschemark). There has literally never been an extended period in which Sterling has fallen against the Dollar, while the Euro has gone up:

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    What Will Keep the Rally Going?

    The markets turned round abruptly on October 3 and have been on a tear ever since. So much so, that October is the best performing month since December 1991. The question now is whether this new trend will continue or whether the next big move in an irrationally exuberant market is likely to be another big lurch down. The December 1991 surge foreshadowed a decade-long bull market. The answer for October 2011 will largely depend on what really...

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