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    Gavekal Research

    Dalian Man vs Davos Man

    The Davos economic forum, held every winter in the Swiss Alps, allows its participants to look down at the world from above: topographically because of the high-altitude location, but also symbolically, because of the high incomes, high status or high-minded rhetoric that characterize the jet-setting global elite dubbed “Davos Man” by the American political scientist, Samuel Huntington. This week, however, I discovered a sub-species of Davos Man...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Greek Tragedy Or La Dolce Vita?

    Like Charles, I have spent a good part of the summer in a beautiful part of Europe, but unlike Charles I spent more time relaxing, rather than thinking and writing almost daily about the financial and economic calamities that lie ahead. This has been lucky for our clients, since I have been unequivocally bullish about equities and the US economy, especially since November’s election. So any market guidance that I might have offered from lovely...

    20
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    Gavekal Research

    Good Omens

    Two months ago I gave ten reasons for believing that April’s break-out of the S&P 500 from its 13-year trading range “could mark the start of a secular bull market in global equities”. This piece, which came out on May 20, was singularly ill-timed, since equity markets peaked the very next day and then plunged on May 22, after Ben Bernanke’s tapering comments (see Goldilocks And The Ten Bears). Luckily for my credibility, I did end this...

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    A Bearish Blunder

    Since Ben Bernanke mentioned on May 22 that the Federal Reserve Board might start to taper its program of quantitative easing later this year, more than $2 trillion has been wiped off the value of global stock markets—and probably far more from the value of global bonds.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - The Fork In The Road

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    When Good Comes Of Bad

    It’s cynical, manipulative and hypocritical—and it looks like it is going to work. How often do you hear a sentence like this, to describe a government initiative or economic policy? Not often enough.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    A Debate On Equity Markets

    Last week, Anatole published Goldilocks And The Ten Bears in which he addressed the ten most common complaints heard over the past year when developing a “bullish equity” thesis. Arguably, most of these complaints can be characterized as disproportionately focused on “fundamentals” (e.g., can we trust a rally fuelled by central bank liquidity creation). Of course, healthy bull markets rest on three pillars: sound fundamentals, attractive...

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Goldilocks And The Ten Bears

    Two weeks ago, as the S&P 500 soared out of the trading range in which it had been trapped for 13 years we suggested that this break-out could mark the start of a secular bull market in global equities (see This Is Not A Peak: It’s A Bull Market). This idea provoked derision and even outrage from many clients. While we cannot do justice to all of the objections we received, it seemed helpful to summarize the main criticisms and offer a...

    34
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    Gavekal Research

    The Arithmetic Of Abenomics

    The 3.5% GDP growth announced this morning suggests that Japan may be the fastest growing economy in the G7. Since the Tokyo stock market hit bottom exactly six months ago, the Nikkei share index has soared 72%. Meanwhile, the yen has experienced its biggest ever six-month move against the dollar. All these events appear to be linked to Shinzo Abe and the new regime he has installed at the Bank of Japan.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Our April, 2013 London Seminar - Anatole, Tom, Francois and Charles

    At our recent seminar in London:

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Thatcher Would Reverse Austerity

    Among all the obituaries and encomiums about Margaret Thatcher, very few have drawn the lesson from her legacy that is most relevant for the world today. Lady Thatcher is remembered as the quintessential conviction politician. But judged by her actions rather than her rhetoric, she was actually much more compromising and pragmatic than the politicians who now dominate Europe. And it was Thatcher’s tactical flexibility, as much as her deep...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    A First Non-Euro Currency Debate

    Last Thursday the Bank of Japan stunned investors with a muscular monetary response that aims to break a deflationary cycle that had seemed to condemn Japan to permanent economic decline. In this piece we debate what the new policy settings mean for investors and crucially, seek to answer the trillion-yen question of where the Japanese currency is headed.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Nikkei: Far From A Crowded Trade

    The GaveKal view is for 2013 to be the year when the main driver of markets shifts from government policy to economic fundamentals. We never expected this to be a smooth ride and the global economy continues to throw up contradictory signals (see today’s Daily Riding A Bull Market With No Conviction). The big exception to this conceptual framework was always going to emanate from Tokyo. Unlike the US, China and (even) Europe, it has been clear...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Cyprus Should Switch Euros For Rubles

    13
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    Gavekal Research

    Merkel's Coming Election Loss: In Italy

    We do not yet know the winner of Sunday’s Italian election, but the losers are already clear. And in this particular election, who loses may be much more important than who wins.

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Here Come The Helicopters

    Wednesday night may have marked the “emperor’s new clothes” moment of the Great Recession, in which the world suddenly realizes its rulers are suffering from a delusion that does not have to be humored. That delusion is economic fatalism: the idea that nothing can be done to break the paralysis in the global economy and therefore that a “new normal” of mass unemployment and declining living standards is inevitable for years or decades to come.

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    The Game Of Chicken Is Ending

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Why The World Will Be Better In 2013

    This week Anatole debates Mohamed El-Erian in a forum organized by the Economist. In this piece Anatole argues that the world economy will improve during 2013, in contrast to the more bearish stance argued by the PIMCO CEO.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    US Seminars: Charles & Anatole Debate, Plus Francois, Will, Nate and Tom

    We sent a big gang to Boston and New York for our pre-Christmas seminars this year. Charles and Anatole debated on Keynesianism and the true scope of government participation in OECD economies. Francois explained his nearly singular view within GaveKal that European growth is set for take-off (at least in some parts). Will Denyer examined the shifting drivers of the US economy. Nate looked at why shale gas has not taken off in China, and Tom...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Britain's Two Cheers For Carney

    5
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