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E.g., 21-10-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Oil’s Busted Flush

    Buoyant expectations that the world’s major oil producers could agree a production freeze when they meet in Doha on Sunday have helped push the price of crude to a four-month high this week. The international Brent blend benchmark reached just shy of US$45/bbl, up 66% from its late January low of US$27, with at least some brokerage houses predicting the price could breach US$50 in the event of a deal. Maybe—but forecasts that the crude price...

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    Gavekal Research

    No Need To Fear For The HK Dollar

    In times as volatile as these, a currency move of 0.8% in a week hardly sounds remarkable. But when the currency is the Hong Kong dollar, people sit up and pay attention. As sentiment towards China’s renminbi has turned deeply bearish over the last few weeks, the Hong Kong dollar has moved away from the strong side of its HKD7.75-7.85 convertibility band against the US currency. In early trading on Wednesday, the Hong Kong dollar reached HKD7....

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Finally Rolls Over

    One of the world’s great bull markets may finally be rolling over. In the 12 years to August 2015, Hong Kong’s residential property prices climbed 557%, with most of the increase occurring since the 2008 financial crisis as prices surged on the back of plentiful liquidity and ultra-low mortgage rates. Now evidence is mounting that the market has peaked. Over the last three months, secondary market prices have slipped by -5%. With the US Federal...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Cosmetic Victory For The Reformers

    On the face of things, it looks as if last week brought two major victories for Europe’s structural reformers. On Friday Greece’s finance minister Yanis Varoufakis was forced to blink first and accept an extension of his country’s existing bailout package under austere terms dictated largely by the German Finance Ministry. Just two days earlier the French government resorted to presidential decree to force a package of structural reforms...

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    Gavekal Research

    5C Asia: Hong Kong's Pro-Cyclical Property Roller Coaster

    Nowhere is the US Federal Reserve’s eventual decision to raise interest rates awaited with greater trepidation than in Hong Kong’s property market. The territory’s currency board link to the US dollar means that Hong Kong had no choice but to import US interest rates when the Fed cut its own benchmark short term rate to zero at the end of 2008. With safe haven funds flooding into the city’s financial system, Hong Kong banks cut their residential...

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    Gavekal Research

    Our Holiday Reading List

    For the third year we are publishing a year-end books round-up. The topics covered by the 17 books in our compendium include hardy Gavekal perennials such as economics, politics and the effect of technological transformation on modern life. In addition Charles considers ancient Rome’s decline due to its apparent embrace of socialism over liberalism. Louis kicks us off with a look at the roots of our most basic human urges.

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong's Democracy Protests

    The inhabitants of Hong Kong were treated over the weekend to the unusual spectacle of police battling political protesters in the city’s streets. Baton charges and volleys of tear gas might be common enough tactics in New York or London, but not in Asia’s leading international financial center. The rapid escalation of the protests over the weekend and the police’s strong-arm response shocked locals, and triggered a -2% fall in the city’s...

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    Gavekal Research

    Killing Democracy To Save Capitalism

    Beijing is tightening its control over Hong Kong’s institutions and political processes. Last week anti-corruption agents raided the homes of three of the city’s prominent pro-democracy figures. Then on Sunday Beijing handed down a long-awaited decision on constitutional development which crushed the city’s hopes for open elections. China’s increasing influence over the nominally-autonomous territory is deeply resented by many in the former...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Hong Kong Crisis That Isn’t

    Over the weekend 700,000 inhabitants of Hong Kong, China’s dominant international financial center, voted in an unofficial referendum calling for full democracy and universal suffrage in the territory from 2017. The poll comes just over a week before a pro-democracy movement known as Occupy Central—or Occupy Central With Love And Peace, to give it its full name—has threatened to blockade key roads in the city, bringing the main financial...

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