E.g., 09-05-2021
E.g., 09-05-2021
We have found 27 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Costs Of Biden’s Spending Plan

    On Wednesday, Joe Biden unveiled an ambitious US$2trn program of public infrastructure investment, to be funded by corporate tax hikes. In a nutshell, the plan is a proposal to transfer wealth from the broad US market to sectors favored by the government. The sectors that benefit from this largesse stand to enjoy a multi-year boom, with the cost to be borne by the rest of the market. However, the extent of this cost should not be exaggerated....

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Trouble With Biden's Climate Plan

    In a frothy market, few sectors are as pumped up as green plays. Since US markets bottomed last March, the Nasdaq composite has generated total returns of 105%. Over the same period the Nasdaq Clean Edge green energy index has returned 403%. Moreover, the outperformance has accelerated since early November, which suggests the green sector’s gains are being driven in part by hopes of a favorable policy environment under Joe Biden’s administration...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Biden’s Spending Plan

    In a speech late Thursday, US President-Elect Joe Biden called on Congress to approve an additional US$1.9trn of federal spending to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic and support the US economy. If approved, Biden’s package will bring US government stimulus spending since the start of the pandemic to more than US$5trn. Heavy on support for households, Biden’s proposal would avert the risk of a first quarter contraction in the US economy and prime the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    After The Storming Of The Capitol

    The sight of a ragtag army of diehard Donald Trump supporters storming Capitol Hill unopposed and seizing the floor of the US Senate shocked observers to their core on Wednesday. Yet despite widespread fears that chaos and political violence are set to become the norm, there were important indications late Wednesday that US democracy and rule of law will prevail and endure.

    12
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A “Little” Stimulus For Christmas

    Having agreed another fiscal stimulus, the US government is poised to give its population a US$900bn Christmas gift. This revives relief programs set up at the pandemic’s outset, testifying to both their success in keeping consumers and businesses solvent, and their popularity

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What Price Now The Big Tech Model?

    On Wednesday the US Federal Trade Commission launched its antitrust suit against Facebook, alleging illegal anticompetitive acquisitions. The action came as no surprise. It has long been anticipated, and follows the suit against Google for anticompetitive practices filed by the Department of Justice in October. Nevertheless, in calling for the breakup of Facebook, with the forcible divestment of Instagram and WhatsApp, the FTC’s suit represents...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Brake On US Growth

    Hopes for effective coronavirus vaccination programs in 2021 propelled both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 small cap index to record high, but on the ground in the US, accelerating infections and rising hospitalization rates prompted more state and local governments to order additional restrictions in a bid to slow the spread of the virus.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Multi-Faceted US Sell-off

    As Covid-19 cases soar and investors fret about the economic recovery being snuffed out, US equities are getting sucked into a gathering sell off. The worry is that the US follows the kind of nationally-mandated lockdowns now being adopted in Europe. We would make the point that in the US, other factors are also at work.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    No More Stimulus

    Within the span of a day, President Donald Trump called off Congressional talks over new fiscal stimulus and then tweeted that he supports sending more checks to all Americans. As Democrats will likely balk at such a deal without more support for the jobless, the chance of getting fresh stimulus before the November 3 election is dimming. That means no population-wide cash handout, no more business bailouts and another income crunch for the 15mn...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Toward A US Health Care Rupture

    The nomination of a new Supreme Court justice with a record of opposing “Obamacare” means the US is more likely to see its health care system upended in the next nine months. Amy Coney Barrett’s probable Senate confirmation raises the chance of the Affordable Care Act being struck down by the court, spurring a plunge in government health-care spending and industry revenue. Multiple outcomes to this issue remain possible, but investors are likely...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A New FDR?

    Joe Biden has accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination to run for the US presidency. Invoking Franklin D. Roosevelt, who responded to the Great Depression with huge public works, Biden promised big fiscal programs to “build back better” after the Covid-19 recession. He also vowed to combat climate change, reduce wealth disparities and advance liberal causes.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Don’t Fear The Fiscal Cliff

    The Republican Senate proposal for a new stimulus falls far short of the Democratic bill passed in the House in May. Reconciling these differing visions into a unified bill that can pass through both chambers and into law will likely take several weeks at least. As a result, the incomes of 17mn jobless Americans will fall off a cliff at the end of July.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The US Approaches A Cliff Edge

    As the US starts to resume normal economic activity, a concern is that fiscal support is ended too early and the recovery is snuffed out. While European economies have extended many of their job protection schemes, the US faces a cliff edge at the end of July. If incomes suddenly crater, the worry is that spending plunges and the recovery takes on the feared W-shape.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Breasting The Trough

    The apparent divergence between the stock market and economic reality continues to widen. Equity investors are focusing on the expected effects of the Federal Reserve’s massive liquidity injections once states emerge from lockdown. The risk to this rosy view is that the easing of restrictions could cause an infection increase so severe that new lockdowns are imposed.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Fiscal Fix

    Barely a month after launching a US$2trn rescue package, the US is poised to release yet more fiscal stimulus to tackle the economic fallout of the Covid-19 crisis. The Senate has passed legislation to top up funding for a small business loan program and the House should follow suit on Thursday. Will this latest cash injection be enough to stop massive bankruptcies? Probably, but the program will remain a messy work in progress in need of more...

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Importance Of The Fed’s Big Guns

    On Monday, the US Federal Reserve rolled out some of its heaviest artillery. In a move reminiscent of the moves in March 2009 which finally succeeded in stabilizing markets, it both relaxed accounting rules for banks and launched a whole suite of programs designed to take risk off private sector balance sheets, including by buying corporate bonds.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    No Good Choices For China

    China wants to show that it will stand up to US threats to escalate the trade war. Yet Yanmei argues that it has few attractive policy choices. It can neither back down from the confrontation nor retaliate enough to deter the US. With little prospect of a negotiated solution in the near term, Beijing is focused on stabilizing the domestic economy.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Way Ahead For North Korea

    After the Trump-Kim summit, North Korea's commitment to denuclearization still remains a fiction. Future negotiations will be mostly about stringing along the US administration. While Washington and Pyongyang talk, Beijing and Seoul will continue to try to normalize the existence of a nuclear-armed North Korea and cement peace.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Emperor Xi Is Not So Far Away

    By removing term limits from his office of president, Xi Jinping has shown there are no constraints left on his political power. As he strengthens his grasp on the top of China’s political pyramid, he is also enforcing his will more effectively at the bottom. For better or for worse, he is moving China to a more centralized and top-down system.

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Sunshine (For China) In Korea

    Sunshine has dispelled the clouds of war on the Korean Peninsula, at least for now. News headlines are cautiously celebrating the de-escalation of tensions leading up to the South Korean Winter Olympics. This amounts to a quiet victory for China's diplomacy, despite its being which was outwardly rejected by both Pyongyang and Washington.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Living With A Nuclear North Korea

    A special envoy of Chinese president Xi Jinping will head to North Korea in what is being billed as a gesture of solidarity and friendship between the two countries’ communist parties. Coming just days after Donald Trump’s visit to the region, the move appears to give the lie to Trump’s assertion that he successfully convinced Xi to “use his great economic influence” to press North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    After Xi’s Coronation

    China’s Communist Party concluded its conclave with a decisive validation of Xi Jinping’s personal leadership, granting him a status and authority unmatched by any Chinese political figure in recent history, and setting the stage for him to exert that power for many years to come.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The North Korean Tail Risk Just Got A Whole Lot Fatter

    Despite the protestations of some of the less temperate US news media, North Korea did not cross a US “red line” yesterday. However, with the successful test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could, in theory, drop a nuclear warhead on the US state of Alaska, Kim Jong Un’s rogue state has brought North Asia a big step closer to the critical point at which investors can no longer rule out military action. A shooting war on the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China’s Kim Problem

    Last weekend's extreme tension on the Korean peninsula is just the latest episode to severely test Beijing’s patience with North Korea. Yet even as elements of the Chinese leadership tire of Kim Jong Un’s grandstanding, China remains unlikely to make a bold move that threatens the regime. Despite acute US pressure, China will seek to preserve the status quo.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The North Korean Wedge Between The US And China

    This week’s missile launches by North Korea, the latest in a recent series of provocations, are forcing the US into a position where it must take steps to limit the threat to itself and its Asian allies. But such moves are certain to antagonize China, and shatter the fiction that the US and China have common interests in dealing with North Korea.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: A Coming US-China Trade War?

    In this video interview Arthur explains how a US-China trade war may play out and the implication for capital outflows from China

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Dissonance In US-China Relations

    Once Donald Trump occupies the White House he is sure to take aim at China in the form of new tariffs, anti-dumping actions and the labeling of the country as a currency manipulator. What is unclear is whether such actions reflect a tough negotiating stance, or instead a fundamental shift in the strategic equation. In this video interview, Arthur explains why the mixed messages coming out of Washington have the potential to spark a dangerous...

    0
Show me: results