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E.g., 17-09-2019
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    Gavekal Research

    All Hail China's PPI

    One of the questions we are most often asked about China is: what is the best economic indicator to watch? Like the sober, level-headed analysts we are, we usually reply that you can’t rely on any single number, and instead must make a balanced judgment using a variety of indicators. Though this happens to be true, most people don’t find it a very satisfactory answer.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Who Loses In China's Deleveraging?

    After a huge acceleration in credit growth since mid-2012, the tide is now turning for Chinese borrowers. China’s new leaders have made clear their determination to rein in credit growth, swearing off large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus even as the economy slows. Credit growth has slowed noticeably since May, and a harsh crackdown on interbank borrowers in June reinforced the government’s reduced tolerance for risky lending. While Beijing...

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Li's Risky Growth Promise

    In comments leaked last week, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang declared that there is a “bottom line” below which the country’s GDP growth will not be allowed to fall. The magic number is 7%, a bit of a comedown from the totemic 8% of the previous decade, but lofty compared to the market’s worst fears. This declaration is understandable as an attempt to reverse weakening business confidence, which if unchecked could send corporate investment and...

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    China's Global Impact

    China’s quarterly report on gross domestic product, long the totemic emblem by which it has measured progress, provided the usual confusing panoply of numbers. The headline YoY growth rate of 7.5% showed a modest slowdown from Q1, but was in line with reduced expectations. However, the less-closely-watched QoQ growth rate picked up to an annualized 7% in Q2 from 6.6%. Yet the nominal growth rate of GDP slowed more sharply, to 8% YoY in Q2 from 9...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Targets, Hopes And Expectations

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How To Raise China's Return On Capital

    In China, you hear lots of talk about the growth of investment, but very little about the returns on investment. Indeed, China has not had to worry much when about the returns to capital since reforms were launched in 1978, as the economy was then severely undercapitalized after decades of neglect. These enormous capital needs allowed for both rapid investment growth and sustained high returns to investment—a combination that persisted for...

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    Gavekal Research

    Never Mind The Fed, Here Comes The PBoC

    China is tightening credit and the People’s Bank of China does not seem minded to offer relief. Today, interbank rates continued to flare up, with the 7-day repo closing at 11.2%, having briefly surged to 25%. Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve look gentle by comparison.

    13
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Closing China's Credit Gap

    The disconnect between rhetoric and reality in China is finally starting to close. The pro-market rhetoric heard from new Premier Li Keqiang over the past few months has been a welcome relief from the vague platitudes of his predecessor. But this language has also been difficult to square with the fact that credit has been allowed to grow at double the rate of nominal GDP. It has always been more likely that the gap between credit growth and...

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2013 - Economic Survey

    The first few months of 2013 delivered two important pieces of news about China’seconomy: the recovery is weak, and the new leadership is committed tostructural reform. GDP growth cooled to 7.7% year on year in the first quarter,a disappointment after the rebound to 7.9% in the last quarter of 2012. Whilethe worse-than-expected GDP figure may have been affected by some one-off issues,it is nonetheless clear that the recovery in housing sales did...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Chartbook: Upgrading China's Export Machine

    China’s new premier says he wants to “upgrade” the nation’s economy. To do so successfully, he will have to ensure China’s exporters can keep on making ever more higher-value and higher-technology goods. In this chartbook, Andrew assesses the challenges China faces in completing the next round of upgrades to its export machine.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Weaker For Longer

    China’s economic indicators for April confirmed that the weak recovery in Q1, and especially March, was not simply a blip. While growth in industrial value-added and other manufacturing indicators did tick up somewhat, the improvement was quite modest given the extremely low base set by the slowdown in April 2012. Credit continues to be very loose and housing sales are still doing very well, but these traditional leading indicators are taking...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Mixed Signals On Capital Flows

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar - Charles, Joyce and Andrew

    At our recent Hong Kong seminar, Charles Gave presented on global currency wars, Joyce on Abenomics and Andrew on the goals of the new Chinese leadership.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Restructuring Monitor

    Everyone agrees that China needs to reform—but how will we know if they are really doing it? Andrew and Joyce have come up with a set of useful quantitative measures of whether or not structural change is actually happening in the Chinese economy. This concise presentation uses just 10 charts to show what market prices and economic data are telling us about China’s progress toward a new growth model.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Self-Imposed Revolution

    Are China’s leaders efficient technocrats who can rule without the messy impediments of democracy, or hapless bureaucrats ensconced in a corrupt system they cannot change? Many foreign admirers prefer the former picture, but within China the corrupt-bureaucrats image is ever more widely held. Former Premier Wen Jiabao stoked popular cynicism by repeatedly making grand, sweeping statements about the urgency of economic and political reform, and...

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Finding The Excess Infrastructure

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Where Is All The Credit Going?

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    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Local Debt Fears Return

    The surprising re-acceleration of credit growth in China—total credit grew at a 22% pace in the first quarter, against just a 9.6% rise in nominal GDP—is drawing attention again to the role of local governments. Growth-obsessed local agencies have been turning in large numbers to the dodgy “shadow” finance markets to borrow money for new infrastructure projects. With this borrowing coming so soon after the 2009 splurge on debt-funded...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Many More Times

    China’s growth has disappointed, again. GDP rose just 7.7% YoY in Q1, slowing from the 7.9% in Q4; in sequential terms, the slowdown was even worse, to an annualized 6.6% QoQ from 8.2%. The weak growth figure caught most observers, including ourselves, off guard, as a cyclical recovery—albeit a modest one—looked clearly underway as of the end of 2012. And with this unexpected soft patch in growth coming so soon after the last soft patch in 2Q12...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Lending Landmark

    China’s state-dominated banking system has hit a turning point. Its state-owned banks have long done business by lending money primarily to companies owned by other bits of the state. This is no longer a fair characterization. Based on official figures, we estimate that outstanding loans to private-sector businesses surpassed those to state-owned enterprises for the first time in 2012. By the end of the year, we think 31% of total bank loans, or...

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