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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Fuel Price Reform Ahead?

    DragonWeek: an opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Financial Strain in Q3

    DragonWeek: an opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - China's Infrastructure Needs

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - How Long Will Coal Prices Stay High?

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Q3 2011 Data

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Gavekal Research

    Daily - The Expanding Impact of China's Absolute Growth

    China announced today that its real GDP growth slowed to +9.1% YoY in 3Q11, from +9.5% in the second quarter. Clearly this economy is not exactly limping along...but the pace of growth will continue to slow, and future quarters will better reflect the current tightening program, cash crunch among SMEs, and weakness in the property sector. While regular readers know we are not in the hard-landing camp, we nevertheless expect that China may never...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Bigger Trumps Slower

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Oct 2011 Chartbook - China

    GaveKal Oct 2011 Strategy Chartbook: China

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    Gavekal Research

    Monthly Strategy Chart Book - China's Structural Strengths and Cyclical Challenges

    The last few weeks have reminded us of October 2008 - the brokerage analysts are falling over each other to downgrade their China growth calls and to forecast impending doom for the Chinese economy. This fear-mongering is badly overdone. This month's chartbook, by Andrew Batson of our Dragonomics team in Beijing, shows that the basic drivers of China's growth are still firmly in place.

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Great Rebalancing Myth

    Most observers think China invests too much and consumes too little. As such, it is almost an article of faith that China urgently needs to “rebalance.” But we are not so sure this is true, at least in the short run.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Insight - Does China Invest Too Much?

    Does China invest too much? Many observers think the answer is obviously yes. They point to rapid growth in investment spending, the sky-high share of investment in China’s GDP, and white elephant construction projects as evidence that China is in the midst of an out-of-control capital spending boom that will end in tears.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Blackouts Will Be Back

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2011 - Economic Survey

    Economic survey (Q3 2011)

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2011 - Agricultural Workforce

    Agricultural workforce: The long road from farm to factory

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2011 - Capital Stock

    Capital stock: How much is too much?

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Is China Heading For The Middle Income Trap?

    The idea behind the “middle-income trap” is simple: it is relatively easy for poor countries to grow fast by taking advantage of their low wages, but once wages are higher, growth gets harder. China is now officially an upper-middle-income country. So if there is indeed a middle-income trap, China should be about to trigger it.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Biden and America's Banker

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Gavekal Research

    Does China Need A New Stimulus Plan?

    China’s economy entered the global financial market turbulence of early August with considerable momentum. While growth in industrial value-added (IVA) slowed to +14% YoY in July from +15% in June, it is still on par with the pace of expansion in previous quarters. Exports continued to beat expectations, rising +20% YoY in July after an +18% gain in June. Meanwhile, domestic fixed-asset investment slowed only marginally, and the volume of key...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - July 2011 Data

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Countdown For China's Farmers

    A lot of the worries about China’s economic prospects boil down to a simple question: just how far along is China on the road to development? Another way to ask this is: just how long is it before China runs out of the “easy” growth that comes from shifting large numbers of workers from low-productivity traditional agriculture into higher-productivity urban jobs? The answer is: at least another decade. Pessimistic observers of China’s investment...

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