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E.g., 13-12-2019
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    Gavekal Research

    Oil And Contagion

    So much for the gentle year-end that looked to be in store after the swift recovery from October’s sell-off. Investors now face an acute dilemma as oil demand estimates get scaled back and the energy complex howls: does the effective tax cut delivered to oil consumers outweigh the effects of capital destruction and rising bad debt that must result from a 40% fall in prices? US equity investors have mostly cheered the onset of $2 a gallon...

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    An Irish Outlier?

    The Irish economy looks to be making a faster than expected recovery from its grim 2010 nadir. Growth is running at an annualized 6.5% which is more reminiscent of the “Celtic tiger” era than the grinding recession conditions still typical in Southern Europe. Ireland seems sure to emerge as a paradigmatic case study between the rival policymaking camps of so called Austerians and those advocating more conventional Keynesian responses. But for...

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    5C Overview: Volatility RIP

    Having weathered fears of depression, a systemic euroland failure and most recently the specter of deflation, investors can be excused for their insouciant attitude to risk. We may not be in sunlit uplands, but for the first time since 2008 the global growth trajectory looks fairly secure and the big central banks have their monetary policy settings in sync. Hence, it is not surprising that volatility across most asset classes is making new lows...

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    Gavekal Research

    Why Thailand Is The Odd Man Out

    In the mid-1990s Thailand’s over-built and excessively geared economy provided a clear early warning signal for the troubles about to engulf the rest of emerging Asia. But having now suffered two military coups in eight years Thailand is less a bellwether than a regional outlier that seems to have given up serious development in favor of a struggle to subdivide existing wealth and power. The good news from Asia is that ascendant political...

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    Gavekal Research

    What Ails The Dollar

    A curious brew of cheap money, a grinding cyclical recovery and “new economy” verisimilitude has helped drive Wall Street to new highs. And yet even as equity investors have scaled the wall of worry, the dollar has remained uninspired. The unit arguably started a structural upswing in 2008 but the recent performance has been lackluster with the DXY index at the bottom of its trading range.

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    Gavekal Research

    Asia Ducks The EM Crisis

    Janet Yellen’s first proper outing on the international stage is set for this weekend when she attends the G20 finance ministers shindig in Australia. She will encounter grumpy emerging market counterparts who blame fickle US monetary policy for capital outflow that has sent growth tumbling. This is likely all the EMs will agree upon since it is increasingly clear that this is not a generalized crisis of big developing economies, but a shake-out...

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    Gavekal Research

    Shoot The Fed Watchers

    Fed watchers have rarely been in such demand as the art of divining the language, tone and likely psychological motivations of the actors on the stage reaches new levels of silliness. In contrast to his oblique and strategically ambiguous predecessor, Ben Bernanke promised a transparent, plain speaking and supposedly rather dull Federal Reserve. As things turned out, we are back pondering the etymological distinction between adjectival forms....

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    The Other Emerging Markets Story

    Investors have had a harsh reminder of the risks presented by high growth developing economies with rudimentary financial systems. And yet for every manager who tells us that they will never again take the call of a Singapore or Sao Paulo-based equity broker, we cannot but feel that the current gloom is overdone. Indeed, we are seeing encouraging signs of reforms that could serve as the basis for the next phase of EM growth.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Control Engineers

    “Words are, of course, the most powerful drug used by mankind,” so said Rudyard Kipling. When central bankers meet next month for the annual Jackson Hole shindig, they can ruminate on their success being increasingly dictated less by what they do, than what they say. Take the European Central Bank and Bank of England which in recent months have been fairly taciturn next to a loquacious Federal Reserve. Yet, by yesterday verbalizing forward...

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    Gavekal Research

    Portugal Goes Rogue?

    Nothing so disturbs a disciplinarian teacher as the prospect of a model pupil turning into the class rebel. With Portugal’s center-right coalition government seemingly on the brink of collapse, such are the fears in Brussels and Berlin. Lisbon has pushed through painful structural reform, stuck to fiscal austerity and in the process improved a chronic trade deficit. Hence, the fallout from Portugal going rogue and rejecting the Troika medicine...

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    Gavekal Research

    A New Global Growth Story

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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (19 June 2013)

    In the latest Five Corners biweekly review of global economics and investment:

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    Gavekal Research

    Not Deja Vu Again In Asia

    For plenty of Asia watchers there is an uncomfortable familiarity with the boom conditions that have gripped Southeast Asia in recent years. Capital is pouring into the region, risk premiums have collapsed and domestic demand is galloping ahead. Manila suddenly has aspirations to be a financial “hub,” Thailand has just racked up a record trade deficit and even Anwar Ibrahim, the enfant terrible of Malaysian politics is back, suggesting he can...

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    Gavekal Research

    Politics And The HKD Peg

    Currency regimes are ultimately political constructs, and that is especially true of Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system. The HKD link to the greenback was adopted in 1983 to stem a financial panic after Britain and China began discussions over the future of the then crown colony. In the intervening period the system has weathered a change of sovereignty, speculative attacks, and after the late 1990s Asian crisis a 70% fall in property...

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    Gavekal Research

    Euro Choices Are Getting Starker

    As has become painfully obvious, we have now moved to the next chapter of the euro crisis. Southern Europe’s vulnerable bond markets are again under pressure (Spanish 10y yields have risen to 6.2%, and the Italian counterparts are at 5.9%), European equity markets have sold off brutally and EMU bank stocks have now fallen to the lowest level since late 1987.

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    Gavekal Research

    Regime Change Threat For HK Developers

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