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E.g., 16-09-2019
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    Gavekal Research

    Asia Ducks The EM Crisis

    Janet Yellen’s first proper outing on the international stage is set for this weekend when she attends the G20 finance ministers shindig in Australia. She will encounter grumpy emerging market counterparts who blame fickle US monetary policy for capital outflow that has sent growth tumbling. This is likely all the EMs will agree upon since it is increasingly clear that this is not a generalized crisis of big developing economies, but a shake-out...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Shoot The Fed Watchers

    Fed watchers have rarely been in such demand as the art of divining the language, tone and likely psychological motivations of the actors on the stage reaches new levels of silliness. In contrast to his oblique and strategically ambiguous predecessor, Ben Bernanke promised a transparent, plain speaking and supposedly rather dull Federal Reserve. As things turned out, we are back pondering the etymological distinction between adjectival forms....

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    The Other Emerging Markets Story

    Investors have had a harsh reminder of the risks presented by high growth developing economies with rudimentary financial systems. And yet for every manager who tells us that they will never again take the call of a Singapore or Sao Paulo-based equity broker, we cannot but feel that the current gloom is overdone. Indeed, we are seeing encouraging signs of reforms that could serve as the basis for the next phase of EM growth.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Control Engineers

    “Words are, of course, the most powerful drug used by mankind,” so said Rudyard Kipling. When central bankers meet next month for the annual Jackson Hole shindig, they can ruminate on their success being increasingly dictated less by what they do, than what they say. Take the European Central Bank and Bank of England which in recent months have been fairly taciturn next to a loquacious Federal Reserve. Yet, by yesterday verbalizing forward...

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    Gavekal Research

    Portugal Goes Rogue?

    Nothing so disturbs a disciplinarian teacher as the prospect of a model pupil turning into the class rebel. With Portugal’s center-right coalition government seemingly on the brink of collapse, such are the fears in Brussels and Berlin. Lisbon has pushed through painful structural reform, stuck to fiscal austerity and in the process improved a chronic trade deficit. Hence, the fallout from Portugal going rogue and rejecting the Troika medicine...

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    Gavekal Research

    A New Global Growth Story

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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (19 June 2013)

    In the latest Five Corners biweekly review of global economics and investment:

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    Gavekal Research

    Not Deja Vu Again In Asia

    For plenty of Asia watchers there is an uncomfortable familiarity with the boom conditions that have gripped Southeast Asia in recent years. Capital is pouring into the region, risk premiums have collapsed and domestic demand is galloping ahead. Manila suddenly has aspirations to be a financial “hub,” Thailand has just racked up a record trade deficit and even Anwar Ibrahim, the enfant terrible of Malaysian politics is back, suggesting he can...

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    Gavekal Research

    Politics And The HKD Peg

    Currency regimes are ultimately political constructs, and that is especially true of Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system. The HKD link to the greenback was adopted in 1983 to stem a financial panic after Britain and China began discussions over the future of the then crown colony. In the intervening period the system has weathered a change of sovereignty, speculative attacks, and after the late 1990s Asian crisis a 70% fall in property...

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    Gavekal Research

    Euro Choices Are Getting Starker

    As has become painfully obvious, we have now moved to the next chapter of the euro crisis. Southern Europe’s vulnerable bond markets are again under pressure (Spanish 10y yields have risen to 6.2%, and the Italian counterparts are at 5.9%), European equity markets have sold off brutally and EMU bank stocks have now fallen to the lowest level since late 1987.

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    Gavekal Research

    Regime Change Threat For HK Developers

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