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    Gavekal Research

    Not Every EM Is A Turkey

    Emerging markets have gotten off to a wobbly start to 2014. Tapering is elevating financing costs and encouraging capital outflows, and meanwhile there is no sign that stronger OECD growth is boosting EM exports. Some countries, such as Turkey, have seen dramatic plunges in asset values, raising fears of a broader contagion effect.

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    Gavekal Research

    Eastern Europe's Convergence

    Investors are still forlornly awaiting a recovery in southern Europe, but in the eastern part of the continent, things are jumping. Well, relatively so anyway, with Eastern Europe’s larger economies seeing a much snappier revival of industrial activity than elsewhere. This discrepancy in economic performance is a reminder of southern Europe’s hopeless bind when it comes to competitiveness. Countries like Greece and Portugal may be in the same...

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    The UK Productivity Gamble

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    Latam’s Free Marketers

    Outside of peripheral Europe and a handful of city states, Northeast Asia is the only region where rural backwaters have managed to develop into fully industrialized economies. For the most part, this ‘miracle’ was not achieved using the standard Washington prescription of open markets, liberalized financial systems and political pluralism. Indeed, rarely has the development nostrums promoted by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Foothills Of Banking Union

    This month the European Central Bank embarks on what is being billed as a comprehensive stress test of the eurozone’s banking system. The year-long exercise is necessary to rebuild credibility in the banking supervisory regime after past tests were derided for their lack of stress. This is the first phase of a two-step process which should ultimately progress toward some form of banking union. But the immediate worry for investors is whether...

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    Gavekal Research

    5C Europe: Draghi's Need For Action

    Excess liquidity in the euro system has fallen to €223bn (7-day average), which is close to the €200bn level identified by the European Central Bank as a potential threshold for intervention. Had this contraction occurred against a backdrop of improved cross-border lending and more direct transmission of ECB policy to borrowers in struggling economies, then all would be well. But this is not the case due to a “financial fragmentation” that still...

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    Gavekal Research

    London Property’s Inevitable Rise

    The Federal Reserve may have postponed its liquidity tightening program, but the tide of easy money looks to have receded from its high watermark. Yet, even as G7 bond prices have mostly declined to less insane levels, London property, a favored refuge for financial itinerants, keeps on rising, caught in an unusual swell of supply-demand imbalances. Although home prices never adjust as quickly as their fixed income equivalents, it is likely that...

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    Australia's Next Era

    Australia’s doomsayers love to focus on high foreign liabilities and household debt ratios, calling up the ghosts of America’s housing bust and emerging market sudden stops. Such risks are heavily overstated. With the opposition conservative coalition expected to win tomorrow’s national election, the new government’s greatest challenge will be to reverse a 15 year trend of deteriorating productivity growth and position Australia as a prime high-...

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    Call It The Soros Effect

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    5C Europe: Stealth Rate Hike Watch

    In January, when EMU banks began repaying the LTRO loans dished out in the heat of crisis, markets worried that this process effectively constituted a monetary tightening. We wrote at the time not to worry—repayments were a sign of health in the banking system, and with excess liquidity above €600bn, there was no danger of short rates going up (see that piece here). Indeed we recommended forgetting about the issue until excess liquidity fell...

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