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E.g., 18-05-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Turkish Resilience

    Turkey has a fragile economy and resides in a troubled neighborhood. More than one million refugees have arrived from Syria over the last two years and now Iraq is splintering. On the face of it, such developments pose an existential threat to an economy that is heavily dependent on imported oil and runs a structural current account deficit. Yet even as Brent crude hits $114 per barrel, Turkey is muddling through. Yesterday, the central bank...

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    Gavekal Research

    Draghi's Faustian Bargain

    On Thursday European Central Bank president Mario Draghi added Easter to the list of reasons why inflation is so far below target; another exogenous factor that the ECB can do little about and that, in time, will fall out of the calculations.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    A Reason For The Bundesbank's Turn

    Common enemies make good friends. It would seem the strong euro is, increasingly, uniting Germany and other members of the European monetary union. Yesterday Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann even opened the door to quantitative easing, a very un-Bundesbank emotion. Our guess is Germany is less worried about deflation or financing the peripherals, and more concerned that the region’s export competitiveness is getting crushed.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Italy Aligned On Thatcherite Keynesianism

    While economists and observers around the world debate at length what the European Central Bank could and should do to fight low inflation, we continue to see more clarity on eurozone fiscal policy settings. After French President Francois Hollande’s turn in favor of tax and spending cuts in January, the new Italian Prime minister Matteo Renzi yesterday outlined a host of easing and reform measures. If implemented, Renzi’s reforms would clearly...

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    ECB: Searching For The Silver Bullet

    It is that time of the month again when the European Central Bank meets, warns that it is ready to tackle deflation, then does nothing. As the governing council goes into today’s conclave, inflation is dangerously below target at 0.8%, and no higher than it was the last time the ECB vowed to act. Is this the day that Mario Draghi actually follows up on his promises?

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    Gavekal Research

    Europe's Divergent Deflation Risks

    A combination of a strong currency and weak domestic demand has squeezed inflationary pressures in the eurozone such that CPI stands at just 0.7%, well below target. We have pointed out previously that much of this represents “good deflation” in that falling prices boosts the purchasing power of consumers especially in the weaker peripheral countries (see The ECB, CPI And Reflation Trades). However, there is a risk that this could morph into...

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    Gavekal Research

    Is The ECB Readying For Stealth QE?

    The European Central Bank has a reputation for holding firepower until the eurozone is at the point of crisis. Although no crisis is apparent now, growing deflationary concerns compounded by volatile money market interest rates make today's ECB meeting worth watching.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Contained Pain In The EMs

    It has not been the brightest start to the new year for most emerging markets. Turkey and the Ukraine are tilting ever closer to the type of blow-up that brings in the IMF posse, and bombs are exploding in Thailand. Then, of course, there’s tapering. Yet all in all, emerging markets are holding up pretty well. Is this a level-headed recognition that not every EM is the same—or a dangerous case of complacency?

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    Gavekal Research

    Not Every EM Is A Turkey

    Emerging markets have gotten off to a wobbly start to 2014. Tapering is elevating financing costs and encouraging capital outflows, and meanwhile there is no sign that stronger OECD growth is boosting EM exports. Some countries, such as Turkey, have seen dramatic plunges in asset values, raising fears of a broader contagion effect.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The UK Productivity Gamble

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    London Property’s Inevitable Rise

    The Federal Reserve may have postponed its liquidity tightening program, but the tide of easy money looks to have receded from its high watermark. Yet, even as G7 bond prices have mostly declined to less insane levels, London property, a favored refuge for financial itinerants, keeps on rising, caught in an unusual swell of supply-demand imbalances. Although home prices never adjust as quickly as their fixed income equivalents, it is likely that...

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    Gavekal Research

    Call It The Soros Effect

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