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E.g., 09-05-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Being Polish

    Having spent 50 years under the yoke of murderous fascists and then control-obsessed communists, Poland re-emerged in 1989 and embraced free market capitalism. It accepted the need for radical reform which had painful short term effects as inflation soared to almost 600% in 1990 while the economy shrank 14%. The payoff has been growth that since 1993 has averaged 4.3%, compared to 2.7% for a neighborhood group that includes Slovakia, Hungary,...

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    Gavekal Research

    Can The ECB's TLTROs Do The Job?

    With its latest round of easing measures unveiled last Thursday, the European Central Bank signalled its determination to intervene aggressively in order to stave off deflation and boost economic growth in the eurozone. The centrepiece of its strategy is its new Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operations. By extending cheap fixed-rate funds to banks making loans to small and medium size businesses, the hope is that the new initiative will...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Healthy Man Of Europe

    In today’s Daily Louis argued that the eurozone investment environment may be undergoing a significant reversal as investors face up to the reality that southern economies are still mired in debt traps. Such a viewpoint would militate against a continued overweight position in European equities. Our European strategist and economist Francois will take issue with this proposition, but one European economic fact that cannot be disputed is the...

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    Gavekal Research

    Portugal Dashing For The Exit

    Even though Portuguese bonds have returned investors a 45% gain over the last year, this paper argues that they should stay long. The 10-year maturity still offers the second highest yield in the eurozone at about 3.65%. That amounts to a 220bp premium over bunds and 60bp above Spanish bonos. Although the dramatic improvement in European financial conditions stems largely from European Central Bank promises to support the euro system, Lisbon’s...

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    Gavekal Research

    The UK’s Monetary Policy Puzzle

    On Wednesday, the Bank of England announced a series of technical changes to its threshold guidance and with them a potentially significant shift in direction. Contrary to most investors’ take, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee looks to have swung back to a dovish position from an apparent tightening-bias adopted at its last inflation report. Moreover Governor Mark Carney has broken away from straightforward inflation targeting and embraced...

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    Gavekal Research

    Eastern Europe's Convergence

    Investors are still forlornly awaiting a recovery in southern Europe, but in the eastern part of the continent, things are jumping. Well, relatively so anyway, with Eastern Europe’s larger economies seeing a much snappier revival of industrial activity than elsewhere. This discrepancy in economic performance is a reminder of southern Europe’s hopeless bind when it comes to competitiveness. Countries like Greece and Portugal may be in the same...

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    Gavekal Research

    Latam’s Free Marketers

    Outside of peripheral Europe and a handful of city states, Northeast Asia is the only region where rural backwaters have managed to develop into fully industrialized economies. For the most part, this ‘miracle’ was not achieved using the standard Washington prescription of open markets, liberalized financial systems and political pluralism. Indeed, rarely has the development nostrums promoted by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Foothills Of Banking Union

    This month the European Central Bank embarks on what is being billed as a comprehensive stress test of the eurozone’s banking system. The year-long exercise is necessary to rebuild credibility in the banking supervisory regime after past tests were derided for their lack of stress. This is the first phase of a two-step process which should ultimately progress toward some form of banking union. But the immediate worry for investors is whether...

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    Gavekal Research

    Australia's Next Era

    Australia’s doomsayers love to focus on high foreign liabilities and household debt ratios, calling up the ghosts of America’s housing bust and emerging market sudden stops. Such risks are heavily overstated. With the opposition conservative coalition expected to win tomorrow’s national election, the new government’s greatest challenge will be to reverse a 15 year trend of deteriorating productivity growth and position Australia as a prime high-...

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