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    Gavekal Research

    Still A Lonely Power

    China, the political scientist David Shambaugh declared last year, is a “lonely power”—lacking close friends and possessing no allies. That is something that Xi Jinping’s “proactive” foreign policy aims to change. His New Silk Road vision—now officially termed the “Belt and Road Initiative”—is to forge a “community of shared destiny,” in which Asia’s prosperity is tied to China’s rise. Rather than building formal alliances, Beijing’s goal is to...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Youku Tudou: Watch With Care

    Youku leads in China’s raucous online video market, but will struggle to stay independent thanks to government censorship and a business model combining the worst aspects of YouTube and Netflix.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The Chinese Company

    In this special issue of the CEQ focusing on the Chinese company, Matthew Forney lays out the rules of the road for investing in China, and how avoid getting caught by the stereotypes of Chinese companies entrepreneurial miracles or fraud-ridden freak shows. Five profiles offer bottom-up lessons on how Chinese companies work.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Spat In The Spratlys

    It is typhoon season once again in the South China Sea. Last May, China ignited a storm of violent protest across Vietnam when it started drilling for oil off the Vietnamese coast. This year the squall is further south in the disputed waters of the Spratly Islands, where the US has demanded that China halt its land reclamation efforts. Ordered to leave the area by the Chinese military last week, a US Navy surveillance aircraft ignored the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Sino-Indian Powerhouse?

    Next week the leaders of the world’s two biggest emerging economies will meet for talks in Beijing. Together, China and India have a population of 2.6bn—36% of the global total—and a GDP exceeding US$12trn. They share a border nearly 4,000km long. Yet China trades more with Thailand than with its most populous neighbor, and there are eight times as many flights between Beijing and Bangkok per week as there are between Beijing and Delhi. The weak...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Maritime Silk Road Or “String Of Pearls”?

    China’s strategic expansion into the Indian Ocean is causing jitters in both Washington and Delhi. This week Xi Jinping pledged to finance a whopping US$46bn of investments in Pakistan, a large chunk of which will fund a 3,000km “economic corridor” from the Arabian Sea to northwest China. The route will begin at Gwadar, a Chinese-run port near the Iranian border, which Indian security experts fear will become a strategic base for the Chinese...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Perils Of Leadership

    Around 50 countries have signed up to join China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. A year ago, when Beijing began to draw up plans for a new multilateral lender, no one could have guessed that it would cause such a global stir. We first wrote about China’s attempt to provide an alternative to the US-dominated system of global development finance last June (see [China] A Chinese Bretton Woods?). But it is too early to conclude that the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    One Belt, One Road, One Grand Strategy

    In what can only be described as a triumph for Chinese financial diplomacy, some 48 countries had defied US disapproval to sign up for Beijing’s new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank by yesterday’s deadline. The applicants included not only Europe’s big four economies, but staunch US allies such as Saudi Arabia, geopolitical rivals like India, and even Taiwan, which China does not recognize as a separate country.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Where Has The Modi Magic Gone?

    India has fallen out of favor with investors lately. Over the last four weeks, the Nifty stock index has dropped 4.6%, a fall that included eight consecutive sessions of declines, the market’s longest losing streak in more than 18 months. Investors blamed the collapse of lofty valuations following poor earnings results, with the fall exacerbated by rising tensions in the Middle East. But critics of India’s government say the problems go deeper....

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    Gavekal Research

    A Petty And Short-Sighted Hissy Fit

    The UK’s decision to join China’s new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is turning into a diplomatic triumph for Beijing and a disaster for Washington. France, Germany and Italy say they will follow the UK’s lead. South Korea and Australia, which the US urged not to sign up when the bank was established last October, are reconsidering. Even Japan, the most stalwart US ally in Asia, is rumored to be wavering.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Investing Along The New Silk Road

    In China, political slogans matter. They help to set the agenda, acting as political weather vanes. In recent months, “One Belt, One Road” has become a signature slogan of Xi Jinping’s administration. A contraction of “Silk Road Economic Belt” and “21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” “One Belt, One Road” describes Beijing’s policy of financing and building transport infrastructure across Eurasia, the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean—aka the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Still Aiming For The Top

    China has long criticized the dominant role of the US, arguing instead for a “multipolar” world. But a recent and surprisingly dovish speech by Vice Premier Wang Yang has stirred up a debate about whether Beijing’s foreign policy is becoming more accommodative. So is China really willing to accept a US-led international order? Don’t believe it for a moment.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Stay Long The Renminbi

    With the Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates, Europe seemingly about to embrace quantitative easing, and Japan’s economy still in the doldrums, the US dollar’s rise looks unstoppable. But for investors seeking a longer term store of value, the Chinese renminbi is a surer bet.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Our Holiday Reading List

    For the third year we are publishing a year-end books round-up. The topics covered by the 17 books in our compendium include hardy Gavekal perennials such as economics, politics and the effect of technological transformation on modern life. In addition Charles considers ancient Rome’s decline due to its apparent embrace of socialism over liberalism. Louis kicks us off with a look at the roots of our most basic human urges.

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    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar December 2014 - Charles, Francois, Tom & Will

    We held our winter seminar in New York on December 5 with Charles, Francois, Tom and Will offering their views of the global economic pulse and recent market developments.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Dream Of Asian Empire

    After years of passive diplomacy, China is now making it clear that it wants to play a substantive role on the global stage. In foreign policy, Xi Jinping’s “Chinese dream” means restoring China’s historical dominance in Asia. China is serious about winning friends and helping its neighbors to benefit from its rise, but its own interests come first: it wants to generate new trade networks, open up transit routes for its exports, and develop its...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - Quiet Empire Building Along The New Silk Road

    China is pursuing infrastructure diplomacy in Central Asia, and it wields a big checkbook. The recipients of its largesse have mixed feelings.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    China's Geostrategic Ambition

    Xi Jinping is making good on his promise to restore China’s position on the world stage. On Monday, China agreed to slash tariffs on high-tech imports, breaking almost 18 months of deadlock with the US over how to update the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement. In coming to terms, China showed it is willing to work with the US in support of multilateral trade frameworks. But China’s President Xi also used his chairmanship of this year’s Asia-...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Travels Along The New Silk Road: The Economics Of Power

    China’s economic expansion overseas is one of the defining geopolitical shifts of our time. Chinese firms have already invested in excess of US$500bn abroad, and the annual flow of overseas investment is set to overtake the flow of foreign direct investment this year (see More Deals, More Players). The push into Africa has captured most attention, but China’s economic tentacles are spreading across developing Asia, too—not least in Central Asia...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Blood And Bazaars On The New Silk Road

    After more than three decades of passive foreign policy, China has a strong leader unafraid of articulating a vision of expansionism. Like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping wants to re-establish his country’s historical sphere of influence—but Xi’s vision is based on economic logic rather than political machismo. Across Asia, China is using its enormous domestic market, financial power and prowess in building infrastructure to suck its neighbors into...

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