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E.g., 23-06-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Market Impact Of US Policymakers

    In yesterday’s webinar, our team of US analysts considered what the Federal Reserve's tentative moves to normalize monetary policy means for growth and asset values. They also offered updates on US fiscal policy and anti-trust developments.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Peak Inflation Expectations

    Despite warning signs, it is now clear that investors were too relaxed about US pricing pressures at the start of this year. That much was clear from the consumer price index rising 5.0% year-on-year in May and at an annual rate of 5.9% over the last six months. Yet with the market measure of forward inflation expectations just below a 10-year high, the scope for these numbers to keep shocking has waned.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Here Comes The US Capex Boom

    Amazing as it sounds given all that has happened in the last 15 months, the US economy is already entering a “mid-cycle” phase that should change the drivers of growth. Sectors like housing and durable goods have enjoyed double-digit growth over the last year, but now face head winds. In contrast, firms across the US seem set to go on a capital spending binge.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Cooling Market For Cars and Houses

    With stimulus checks having been sent and the jobs market recovering, last month saw the biggest jump in US car sales for at least 35 years. Will Denyer and I have been bullish on autos (and for similar reasons, housing) for the last year. Yet just as the punch bowl fills up, it looks time to get more cautious.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    No Reason To Reverse A Weak Dollar Call

    The US dollar is nearing the bottom of its trading range, so does it bounce back, or break lower? In 1Q21, the US’s rapid vaccination rollout and improving economic outlook spurred the dollar’s rebound. In early April KX argued that as other nations followed a similar path, the relative strength of these factors would wane. This has played out, and there are other reasons to fade the dollar.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Profits And The US Reshoring Plan

    In selling his US$2.3trn infrastructure investment plan, US President Joe Biden says it will create millions of secure manufacturing jobs: “There is simply no reason why the blades for wind turbines can’t be built in Pittsburgh instead of Beijing,” he recently opined. While not successful, the reshoring of US manufacturing jobs was a key justification for Donald Trump’s mercantilist trade policy. Now, as Biden seeks Congressional votes for his...

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Hardly Transitory, But Not A Spiral

    After headline and core CPI readings hit multi-year highs for April, investors have inflation on their minds. The rise in US bond yields and continued fall in equities reflects fears that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve, and could be about to slam on the monetary brakes. My view is that these price pressures are far from transitory, but a spiral higher does not beckon.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    The Changing State Of US Liquidity

    When it comes to creating and distributing US money, there are three main players: the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and commercial banks. Recent events call for a status update on the prospects for money flows from each, and what it all means for the bond market.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Towards A Sustainable Boom?

    With a shoot-the-lights-out number universally expected when the US reports first quarter GDP data this week, Tan Kai Xian looks at the drivers propelling growth to determine whether US performance is sustainable, or just a flash in the pan. As a number of risks continue to loom large on the radar screen, in this video interview he assesses the implications of US growth for investors in risk assets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Renter’s Housing Market?

    When GDP for 1Q21 is released on Thursday, the US economy will be shown to be booming. An exception to this cheery trend is the US residential property market, which, having led the recovery, now looks pretty anemic. The worry is that a pronounced housing downturn could even choke off the broader recovery.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Trading The Vaccination S-Curve

    Vaccination programs around the world have gotten off the ground at widely varying speeds. But everywhere they tend to follow a similar S-curve trajectory. While most countries are still in the early stages of their vaccination programs, a very few are in their late stages, where the S-curves begin to flatten. Their experience provides an investible roadmap.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Living In A Stock Picker’s Market

    When only one major factor affects equities, correlations rise. At such points, the name of the game is not to pick the best stocks, but to get the ebb and flow of that key factor right. At other times, multiple factors are in play and these affect different stocks differently; in such periods, picking winners is vital. For most of last year, the US market was macro-dominated as the Covid-induced economic collapse caused equity correlations to...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, April 2021

    In the long years between the 2008-09 financial crash and the 2020 Covid crisis the US stock market massively outperformed equities in the rest of the world. In recent quarters, however, the US market has lost its edge. Yesterday, Louis, KX and Udith weighed the merits of ex-US equities versus US stocks in a post-pandemic world.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Living With The Next Covid Wave

    Global markets are looking ahead to a post-pandemic world, but Covid-19 is still very much with us. Globally, new infection rates have risen sharply since late February, reversing their earlier decline. In the last few weeks, the US has experienced an alarming uptick in infections. The European Union is struggling to contain its latest Covid wave, which in several major countries compares with November’s for severity. And across the developing...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Case For Ex-US Equities

    The US trade deficit cycle suggests the world is heading towards a protracted period of US dollar depreciation. With valuations outside the US relatively attractive, and deglobalization meaning ex-US equities will offer greater diversification benefits in future, investors should consider increasing their exposure to ex-US equities.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Costs Of Biden’s Spending Plan

    On Wednesday, Joe Biden unveiled an ambitious US$2trn program of public infrastructure investment, to be funded by corporate tax hikes. In a nutshell, the plan is a proposal to transfer wealth from the broad US market to sectors favored by the government. The sectors that benefit from this largesse stand to enjoy a multi-year boom, with the cost to be borne by the rest of the market. However, the extent of this cost should not be exaggerated....

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Future Of The Great US Rotation

    Much has happened in the US in the last eight weeks. More than 80mn Americans have been vaccinated against Covid, Congress has passed a stimulus bill worth 9% of GDP, and the Fed has confirmed its determination to remain among the most peaceable of inflation doves. In response, 10-year US treasury yields have leapt, and the rotation from growth stocks to value has grown more violent even as the broad equity market has ascended new heights. In...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Short And Long For The US Dollar

    After ending 2020 amid heavily negative sentiment, the US dollar has confounded near-term bears by edging higher year-to-date. The DXY dollar index has gained 2.75%, clawing back just over a third of its -7.5% decline in 2020. Perhaps this should not be too surprising. First, by the end of 2020, the US dollar was no longer blatantly overvalued. Second, the DXY found support at 90, its low of early 2018. Third, the near-term outlook for nominal...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Strengthening Case For Value

    In the last two weeks, US value stocks have given up some of the outperformance relative to growth that they racked up over the previous five. So has value’s spurt of outperformance now run its course, leaving the S&P 500 value index’s 11pp of outperformance relative to growth since the beginning of February as just a counter-trend blip against a backdrop of more than a decade’s underperformance? Or are the relative gains in value since the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Let's Twist Again

    When they sit down on Wednesday, the members of the Federal Open Market Committee will face a couple of knotty questions. Should they attempt to do anything about rising bond yields? And if so, what?

    4
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