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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Jun 04th 2019
Trump's War And Our Problem
In the seven decades after World War II, the most powerful nation in the world could be relied on to defend and promote free trade among nations. Then came President Donald. J Trump. Now it’s conceivable that Trump’s goal is to shake up the old rules-based system.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
May 30th 2019
An Ugly Trade War And An Inverted Yield Curve
Will a trade war boost US growth and inflation, or instead cause a deflationary recession? The bond market is basically saying that a trade war will dent US growth and force the Federal Reserve into easing. Bear with my two-handed explanation, but there are also good reasons why it could also boost nominal growth.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian
May 28th 2019
The Message In Market Dispersion
Economic events create winners and losers. It is too early to say with confidence how the current US trade and technology confrontation with China will play out, or whether US tariffs on imported autos and the threatened retaliation will go into force. But it is possible to tell how great investors believe the potential disruption is likely to be.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian
May 09th 2019
A Better Time For A Trade War
For equity investors, there is a never a good time to have a trade war. Nevertheless, if there must be one, the US stock market is now better placed to ride out a US-China tariff conflict than it was a year ago. That’s just as well. Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to arrive in Washington on Thursday for the latest round of trade talks which are going down to the wire.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian, Will Denyer
May 06th 2019
How Long Can Productivity Contain US Inflation Pressure?
April’s US payrolls report showed job creation was stronger than expected and unemployment lower, yet wage pressures were softer. This suggests weaker unit labor costs will allow the Fed to remain dovish, at least for now. All else being equal this is positive for equity investors. The question is: How long can this benign combination persist?
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
Apr 29th 2019
Managing Today’s Biggest Risk
The US first quarter GDP data released on Friday proved consistent with the picture of slower—but still positive—growth through 2019, and a continuation of the Goldilocks tailwind for asset markets. But after a strong run-up in equities this year, it might be time to ask what the greatest risk is to the current environment, and how to position for it.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Apr 15th 2019
Inflation Is The Real Risk
Happy days seem to be here again as risk assets soar on a dovish Federal Reserve and better growth outlook. Yet, investors should take note. The Fed has three official mandates; namely, to keep inflation low and stable, keep unemployment down, and keep interest rates low and stable. Yet among those “equals”, the first is thought to be bearing down on inflation.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian, Will Denyer
Apr 10th 2019
A New Look At The Housing Market
When the US slides into recession, it generally does so because of a contraction in investment, either in the corporate sector or in the housing market. Today, returns on capital invested in housing exceed the cost of capital, signalling a positive outlook for US residential investment, construction, house prices, and the shares of homebuilders.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Udith Sikand
Apr 05th 2019
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call April 2019
In yesterday’s Gavekal Research Conference Call, Will Denyer and Udith Sikand addressed the changing US dollar liquidity environment, and its impact on markets.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian
Apr 03rd 2019
Play A Longer US Cycle With Small Caps
After a wobble late last year, the US economy looks to be stabilizing. The Atlanta Fed has revised up its estimate for 1Q19 GDP growth to 2.1%, while more timely indicators such as mortgage applications, PMI readings and durable goods orders indicate a steadying of the ship.The question is how to play this development.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Udith Sikand
Apr 01st 2019
Strategy Monthly: A New Liquidity Environment
The prospect of easier liquidity conditions helped make 1Q19 one of the best ever quarters for US equities. Confirmation of the Federal Reserve’s newly dovish policy stance means that US equities should continue to do well through 2019. Other big winners in this environment may be equities in northeast Asian emerging markets that do not rely on Chinese commodity demand.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian
Mar 25th 2019
Recession Warning, Or False Alarm?
On Friday, the three-month to 10-year portion of the US treasury curve inverted for the first time this cycle, heightening investors’ fears of impending recession. But although every US recession of recent decades has been preceded by an inversion of the yield curve, not every inversion has been followed by a recession; there have been cases of false positives.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
Mar 21st 2019
Gather Round The Punch Bowl
US monetary policy tightening is over, at least for now. While the Federal Reserve is not adding any more hooch to the punch bowl, chairman Jay Powell has promised to stop cutting his serving sizes. Although not much of a surprise, the Fed’s guidance is broadly positive for just about everything but US dollar cash—especially equities and real assets.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian
Mar 20th 2019
Believe In The US Consumer, Still
Just as the Federal Reserve eases up on monetary tightening and negotiators struggle to avert a trans-Pacific trade war, the US consumer is emerging as the next source of worry. Americans are deferring big-ticket purchases, consumer confidence readings have softened and retail sales growth has slowed. Suddenly, the picture looks similar to the 2015-16 soft patch, or worse still it resembles the phase leading up to the 2008 crisis, when an...
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Mar 15th 2019
Video: The Fed's Potential Paradigm Shift
The Federal Reserve is debating a fundamental shift in its inflation targeting. Right now it's targeting 2% inflation no matter what it has been in the past, a so-called "bygones" policy. In this video interview Will discusses the consequences of switching to price-level targeting, where the aim is to keep average inflation over time at 2%.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian
Mar 11th 2019
Productivity To The Rescue, For Now
On first reading, Friday’s US payroll report for February made grim reading for most investors. The screeching slowdown in non-farm hiring seemed to point to a US economy that is flirting with recession. To compound matters, wage growth seemes to point to a very tight labor market. On closer inspection, however, a less concerning picture is revealed.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Mar 07th 2019
An Investor's Rough Guide To Modern Monetary Theory
Modern Monetary Theory—the idea that governments can spend as much as they want, free from funding constraints—is attracting more and more attention. Will examines the precepts of the theory, explores whether it really brings anything new to the table, and outlines some of the implications for investors should it ever be applied as practical policy.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Mar 06th 2019
Video: Shifting Sands At The Fed
The US Federal Reserve has said it is likely to end its process of balance sheet “normalization” sooner than previously planned. This sounds like an obscure monetary technicality, but it has important implications for investors. In this video interview Will explains why.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian
Mar 01st 2019
Get Ready To Buy The Dip
With the S&P 500 up a nifty 18% from its Christmas eve low, propelled by the Federal Reserve’s dovish turn and hopes of a US-China trade truce, it is natural to wonder if US stocks are due for a correction. The question for investors is whether they should fade the rally now before it is too late, or stay invested and look to buy the dip should a correction occur.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
Feb 27th 2019
The Trouble With Price Level Targeting
The Federal Reserve is talking about changing the way it targets inflation. Currently it tweaks policy in an attempt to zero in on a specific inflation rate: 2%. Under the framework it is discussing, instead it would aim to hit a price index level consistent with a particular long term average inflation rate. The distinction might sound subtle, but by targeting a price level, the Fed would compensate for any undershooting by attempting to...
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