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E.g., 28-10-2021
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    No Respite For Real Estate

    Troubled developer China Evergrande Group made an interest payment on a US dollar bond just before the 30-day grace period expired on October 23, narrowly avoiding a default. However, this does not mean the wave of developer defaults is over, or that the freeze in demand for developer debt has thawed.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Solving The Power Crisis

    To solve China’s power shortages, planners are both liberalizing electricity prices and browbeating mines to produce more coal. In this report, Rosealea explains that while getting through the crisis will require a rebound in coal-fired power, energy price liberalization should support China’s environmental goals in the long run.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing & Construction Review 2021

    China’s post-Covid property boom has unwound more rapidly than expected this year as the government’s tough policies drive developers into distress. In her annual chartbook, Rosealea explains the outlook for the rest of 2021 and 2022. Further declines in housing sales and construction will come, but policy adjustments can limit their magnitude.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Reversal In Iron Ore

    Over the past two months, iron ore prices have tumbled as China’s property market slows and local authorities expand restrictions on steel output. In this report, Rosealea explains why falling steel demand should cause prices to continue their decline, eventually settling at around levels of US$70-80/ton.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Developers Feel The Squeeze

    The steady drumbeat of tightening on China’s property developers is taking its toll on construction activity. In this report, Rosealea explains why this weakness in construction will not unduly worry policymakers and should even help them achieve their goal of reducing steel production. Developers will therefore continue to feel the squeeze.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Another Squeeze For Steelmakers

    Steel futures are on the rise again after several provinces announced plans to cut production. This might sound familiar: prices spiked in April and May following similar announcements. Rosealea writes that this time is different, as slowing construction activity in 2H21 should lower steel demand, making production easier to control.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Evergrande Drama Plays Out

    Investor confidence in Evergrande Group, China’s second-largest property developer, has been pummeled in recent weeks. While Evergrande has managed to put out the latest round of fires, and a collapse is unlikely, Rosealea argues in this piece that market volatility for developers will probably continue as financial regulators keep on squeezing.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Carbon Market's Slow Start

    China launched the world’s biggest carbon market last week to great fanfare. Unfortunately, Rosealea writes that it will not do much to slow China’s CO2 emissions growth, at least not initially. While the market's impact will be small at first, its architecture can be gradually strengthened to achieve more ambitious goals.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China's Conflicting Pressures In The Second Half

    China is entering the second half of 2021 with its strong post-Covid economic momentum still intact, despite policymakers staying consistently hawkish on debt and property. In this webinar Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Thomas Gatley outlined how these conflicting pressures will play out over the rest of the year, and discussed the potential for an easing of the policy stance.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Another Go At The Property Tax

    After two years of silence, the Chinese government has signaled it is making a new effort to implement a residential property tax by expanding local trials. In this report, Rosealea explains why, against a better economic backdrop and with less organized opposition, the property tax is likely to stick this time around.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Decarbonization Is An Industrial Problem

    How achievable are China’s targets of reaching peak carbon emissions before 2030 and a fully carbon-neutral economy by 2060? Rosealea writes that the unusually large share of heavy industry in China’s CO2 emissions will make the 2030 target difficult to achieve, while carbon neutrality will require a massive reorientation of China’s economy.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Urbanization Surprise

    China’s 2020 census revealed that urbanization has been faster over the past decade than official statistics showed. That means the fundamentals for housing demand are stronger than most had realized. As Rosealea argues in this piece, the census should drive an upward reassessment of long-term trends in China’s urbanization and commodity demand.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Striking A Balance On Steel Restrictions

    China’s steel output restrictions are softening following a sharp downward price correction. Rosealea writes that while environmental targets prevent officials from abandoning production curbs altogether, they will need to introduce demand-side constraints to match these supply-side measures and to avoid a repeat of the recent price dislocations.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Commodity Spiral

    Global commodity prices have been on a tear in recent weeks due to strong global growth prospects and constricted supply. The macro picture, however, is murky, with China simultaneously being the driver of soaring iron ore prices while moving to tighten controls over property and infrastructure spending. Rosealea and Louis explained the overall outlook for metals and energy.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Talking The Talk On Commodity Prices

    Domestic futures prices for iron ore, steel rebar and coal fell sharply last week after China’s government signaled concern about rising commodities prices. In this Quick Take, Rosealea and Wei explain that policymakers are counting on a mix of tougher demand and softening demand to cool down, if not reverse, the commodities spike.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Steel Price Squeeze Is Here To Stay

    China’s iron and steel prices have broken through their post-financial crisis highs, the result of strong domestic demand, constrained international supply and government plans to curb steel production. In this report, Rosealea explains why prices are likely to remain elevated but slowing demand growth should keep them from rising further.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Curing The Coal Addiction

    China’s reliance on coal is a major hurdle to its goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. The country is gradually improving its energy mix; however, despite these efforts, Rosealea argues that China’s appetite for coal and continued dependence on the energy-intensive construction complex mean that its green transition will be slow and painful.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Curbing Mortgage Enthusiasm

    China’s regulators are strengthening their curbs on the property market as its post-pandemic exuberance continues. In this piece, Xiaoxi and Rosealea explain the central bank’s latest moves to curb disguised mortgage lending and cap overall loan growth. The main effect of these controls will be to slow lending to households and cool housing prices.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Difficult Decoupling For Australian Iron Ore

    Chinese iron ore imports grew 9.5% in 2020 to 1.17bn tons despite rising tensions with Australia, China’s largest supplier. Top leaders are calling for greater supply-chain security and reduced dependence on Australian materials, but Rosealea explains that this is easier said than done given China’s immense appetite for the commodity.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Slowing Down Steel Production

    Policymakers have pledged to “ensure a year-on-year decline” in steel output this year to help China achieve peak carbon-dioxide emissions by 2030, but these curbs will not reduce the country’s underlying demand for steel. In this report, Rosealea analyzes the feasibility of this target and its consequences for the steel industry.

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