E.g., 25-10-2021
E.g., 25-10-2021
We have found 439 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Drawing Conclusions From A Sample Size Of One

    We are all the fruits of our own experiences, which create biases to project our experiences into the future. Such personal experience can even be transformed into iron rules. Today, the narrative is that Federal Reserve tapering results in lower bond yields. Louis challenges this view, pointing out that as the Fed has started talk of tapering, yields have been rising.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Labor And The Age Of Shortages

    The leader of the British Labour Party, Keir Starmer, missed a political trick at his party conference in late September when he failed to quote Labour’s late deputy leader, Aneurin Bevan, who told the party’s 1945 conference, “This island is made mainly of coal and surrounded by fish. Only an organizing genius could produce a shortage of coal and fish at the same time.”

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Least Bad Energy Policy?

    Today, policymakers in western countries and China are facing similar problems, including growing disparities in wealth between those who own assets and those who do not, and worsening energy shortages. So will policymakers in western countries, and especially in Europe, who are facing similar shortages follow China and impose energy rationing?

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Avoiding Sequels

    Like many other parents, Louis has seen his share of kids' movie sequels, which unfortunately fall much too short of the of the first installment. This reminds him of two “curve-balls” that investors are now having to digest. The first is the China Evergrande debt debacle. The second is the looming shortage of energy across most of the industrialized world.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Times They Are A-Changin’

    Despite widespread fears that the troubles of property giant Evergrande will cause China's "Lehman moment", the renminbi's exchange rate against the US dollar has barely blinked, while Chinese government bonds continue their strong outperformance. Louis examines the facts and outlines the likely consequences that matter for investors.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    ‘Transitory’ Inflation And Government Intervention

    Tuesday’s US CPI release shed little light on the “transitory versus persistent” inflation debate. Airfares and hotel rates weakened on the delta outbreak. And surprisingly, rents remained muted, while used car prices rolled over even as new car prices surged. Still, US CPI gained 5.3% YoY, while core CPI rose 4% YoY. By the standards of recent decades, these are big numbers.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Mile In MbS’s Shoes

    Steve Martin once said “before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, when you do criticize him, you’ll be a mile away and have his shoes”. In this piece Louis takes a stroll in Mohammed bin Salman’s shoes to see what issues Saudi Arabia has faced recently, and outlines four scenarios that affect energy prices and geopolitics.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Most Worrying Shortage

    The world’s most traded commodity, semiconductors, is running scarce, the price of the second-most important commodity, oil, is grinding higher, and the cost of moving things around the world is soaring. All this would be worrying enough, but ask any businessperson in North America or Europe about their biggest constraint, and the answer is likely to be staffing.

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Long Shadow Of Canada’s Election

    Canada’s federal elections rarely make headlines. This may be because whoever wins, the outcome is usually much the same. However, Canada’s September 20 election may cast a shadow that falls beyond the country’s borders. This is because, to a large extent, the election will be a referendum on Covid policies.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Evolution Of China Risk

    It has been a busy summer for China watchers, with rapid shifts in underlying risks. With that in mind, a quick recap of recent events, and where those leave investors, might make sense. Let me start with the obvious increased risks:

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Saigon, Mosul Or Suez?

    The images of US diplomats scrambling onto jets at Kabul airport, of Afghan refugees fleeing to Iran, Pakistan and Tajikistan, and of the Taliban entering Kabul with barely a shot fired are disturbing viewing. For investors, the question is which is the closest historical parallel. The flying helicopters and evacuated embassies recall Saigon in 1975. The speed of the humiliation evokes the 1956 Suez Crisis. And the images of the Taliban parading...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Consequence Of The IPCC Report

    The quote I over-use most is probably Charlie Munger’s “show me the incentives and I will tell you the outcome.” With this in mind, it is no surprise that the IPCC report makes for a harrowing read. Whether you agree with its conclusions is neither here nor there. The key question is this: what will policymakers do, or want to be seen to do, in response?

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Is The Reflationary Trade Back On?

    Forget the recent easing signals sent by the Chinese Politburo (and consequent drop in Chinese bond yields). Forget fears about the “Delta variant” giving Western central banks cover to keep extremely loose monetary policies even as inflation rises. Forget also the upcoming US stimulus bill, or the unleashing of European fiscal expansion. A positive signal that no one is yet talking about is the deflationary signal that could have materialized,...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The China Piece Of The Puzzle

    On Monday, Louis identified three possible culprits for the rally in US treasuries, the consequent abrupt shift from value to growth, and the outperformance of US equities. Of these three, Chinese overtightening seemed the best explanation for what has unfolded in financial markets over the past couple of months. Louis explores what this could mean for investors.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Behind The Bond Market Rally: Delta, The Fed Or China?

    US treasury yields made a post-Covid crisis high of 1.74% on March 31. At the time, US consumer prices were rising at 2.6% a year and oil was at US$60 a barrel. Fast forward to today and US CPI is at 5% and West Texas Intermediate at US$72/bbl. Meanwhile, bond yields have declined to 1.3%. It is hard not to conclude that one of these prices is “wrong”.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Year Of Policy Divergence

    A year into its recovery from the Covid-induced collapse of 2020, the world’s largest economy is stimulating final demand to an extent rarely seen before. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, the picture in the world’s second largest economy is starkly different. As a result, for the first time, broad money growth in the US is rapidly outpacing that occurring in China.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Cryptos’ Many Damocles’ Swords

    Since peaking in mid-April at US$63,500, bitcoin has almost halved in value, making a series of lower highs and lower lows . For such a high-beta asset, this roll-over is interesting given that risk assets like equities have powered on to new highs. So has the overall environment for cryptos materially changed?

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Odds Of Oil Breaking Out On The Upside

    Since January, most commodity prices have ripped higher, with materials and energy among this year’s best performing sectors. So where do we go from here? Obviously, the price of energy marks the spot where current supply meets current demand. And when looking at oil prices today, there are both bullish and bearish arguments to be made on either side.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Is It Gold’s Turn To Shine?

    Over the last year, the bubbles have just rolled on from one exciting asset to the next, with investors wondering which will follow. In this note, Louis explains why he thinks gold may be the next one.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Where Will The Next Deflationary Shock Come From?

    The 1986 oil price crash, to an extent, fired the starting gun on 30 years of global deflation. As commodity prices collapsed, so did the Soviet Union, giving the West a deflationary peace dividend. By the early 1990s, Japan’s real estate and equity market busts threatened its banks. The rollout of the North American Free Trade Area and the 1995 “tequila crisis” helped make Mexico a competitive manufacturing hub. Soon after, the 1997-98 Asian...

    11
Show me: results