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E.g., 24-05-2019
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    Gavekal Research

    The Case Of The Missing Inflation: The Changing Demographic Picture

    Demography, it is said, is destiny. If so, then the finger of destiny may be pointing at a more inflationary future for the world economy. Louis reviews the slow shifts in demographic profile which govern trends in consumption and savings, and so propel the forces of inflation and deflation over the very long term.

    6
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    The Motivation Behind Trump's Tweets

    Since becoming president, Donald Trump has made it clear that he sees the S&P 500 as the real-time judge of his White House performance. Why, then, did Trump on Sunday send a tweet alleging that China had backed off from agreed positions in the US-China trade talks, and in so doing rattle a market priced for Goldilocks?

    5
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    The Case Of The Missing Inflation: Chinese Foreign Exchange Policy

    As the US-China trade talks enter a critical phase, all eyes are on a new meeting of officials and whether it can can break the log jam. Louis, however, wonders if investors may be missing a trick by purely focusing on issues of market access, enforcement and tariffs. Adjustments in the value of the renminbi may yet be the real story of any deal.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Series: The Case Of The Missing Inflation

    As the Federal Reserve launched the second round of its quantitative easing, the fear was that the Fed’s unorthodox monetary policy would ignite a new round of inflation throughout the world, with dramatic effects on asset prices. After all, most asset prices are driven by the interaction of inflation and economic activity. But inflation failed to materialize, and even fell from more than 3% globally in 2010 to negative territory in 2015. These...

    0
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    Q&A On The Hong Kong Dollar Peg

    The recent publication of a letter on the future of the Hong Kong dollar peg by Gavekal’s good friend Kyle Bass has triggered a flood of questions on the topic from clients. Now, Louis admits that there may be some home bias to this conviction that the Hong Kong dollar peg is not under threat. But in this paper, he sets out his answers.

    3
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    The Case Of The Missing Inflation: US Fiscal Policy

    The US seems set to run huge fiscal deficits for as far as the eye can see, and it is not clear who is going to fund this indulgence. In the fourth instalment of his “missing inflation” investigation Louis considers the options available to the US Treasury and concludes that hard funding choices will likely be ducked by whoever wins the 2020 election.

    1
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    The Case Of The Missing Inflation: Chinese Monetary Policy

    China’s response to the Fed’s QEII program in 2010 was to tighten monetary policy, as it feared a spill-over effect into inflation. Since that point China has seen credit growth progressively slow, making it an inhibitor to any global rebound in inflation. This orientation by China is changing as the focus of policy shifts away from crimping the shadow finance sector.

    4
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    The Case Of The Missing Inflation: Energy’s Impact

    When the Fed launched QE2 in 2010, there was widespread fear that a great inflation beckoned. It has not exactly worked out that way. Louis considers the role energy played in a decade of becalmed US consumer prices. Yet, with oil prices again rising, he asks whether the market has grown complacent in its analysis of the relationship between oil and inflation.

    3
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    Beyond The Yield Curve Inversion

    The current yield curve inversion and softness in growth data are curious developments, given that the four prices that matter most for the global economy—long bond yields, corporate credit spreads, the oil price, and the value of the US dollar—are all relatively favorable. Louis and Charles weigh five different explanations for what may be going on—from bullish to highly bearish—and examine the investment implications.

    2
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    The Trade Deal Scenarios

    In recent days, news reports have pointed to an impending trade deal between the US and China. A tweet by the US president that seemed to favor Chinese tech firms has added to that expectation. In this piece, Louis considers two possible outcomes to these talks, with one offering markets a short-term fillip, and the other being a likely gamechanger that will impact investors’ performance for years to come.

    2
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    Thirty Years Later: Tiananmen's Long Shadow

    On Monday we published a piece from Louis in which he assessed the three economic fronts where the US and China are doing battle. In this second part of the series, Louis steps back and considers the chief monetary priorities that China has settled on since the tumultuous events at Tiananmen Square almost 30 years ago.

    1
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    Three Separate Battlefronts In The Unfolding Cold War

    As the clash between China and the US intensifies, Louis notes the primacy that Mao Zedong’s guerrilla tactics would have had in forming the current Chinese leadership’s political consciousness and setting a template for the way they handle conflict. As such, he sees the struggle between the two superpowers playing out on three distinct fronts.

    19
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    Gavekal Research

    The Big Questions For 2019

    The last quarter of 2018 proved to be something of a horror show for most investors and despite this year starting with a firmer tone, the investment landscape looks to have changed in a fairly profound way. In this report, Louis considers the major shifts in the investment environment and asks whether these conditions will persist through 2019.

    3
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    This Century's Suez Crisis

    China’s “Belt and Road” initiative is a clear bid by Beijing to challenge the incumbent imperial power: the US. And in an age when the highest-value commodities are not physical goods, but the binary digits zipping around the world at the speed of light, the battleground of this struggle for dominance will be telecommunication networks.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Getting Out Of The Liquidity Squeeze

    With the Trump-Xi summit, compromise between Rome and Brussels, and the oil price down, all the ingredients should have been in the mix for a Santa Claus rally. Instead it's been an ugly few weeks in the markets, which strongly suggests no let up yet in this year's liquidity squeeze. In this detailed report, Louis looks back at recent history to determine what forces might bring the squeeze to an end next year, and therefore what asset...

    0
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    The Next Target Of Trump’s Firepower

    In today’s Daily, Arthur Kroeber offered his analysis of the weekend’s Trump-Xi summit in Buenos Aires. In this short report, Louis takes a slightly different tack, reviewing the series of tumultuous events in recent weeks. His conclusion is that few investors’ portfolios are well positioned for the probable outcome.

    0
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    Salvini, Part Deux?

    This weekend saw protests in France that united demonstrators from all parts of the political spectrum against President Emmanuel Macron. Louis wonders if this represents the beginning of a populist wave that rejects the president’s mushy centrism and joins political bed fellows who have never laid down before. After all, it happened in Italy.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Has Oil Set Its High For This Cycle?

    With the price of WTI crude oil now back below its 200-day moving average, Louis puts himself in the shoes of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and imagines what sort of leverage he could exert over Donald Trump, what this means for the enforcement of sanctions against Iran, and what that implies for the oil price going forward.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast

    Louis investigates six of the most incongruous sets of relationships that have held sway this year and offers alternative explanations. In particular, he focuses on the strange case of China’s response to US trade hostility and argues that understanding Beijing’s game plan may hold the key to whether the long US bull market in equities can stay the course.

    4
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    The Big Lesson From Argentina

    One of the reasons this summer’s sell-off in Argentinian debt was so vicious was that few international banks these days are willing to make markets in such “exotic” bonds, and even fewer are prepared to hold a substantial inventory. As a result, when foreign investors rushed for the exit, there was no market. But as Louis explains in this paper, the problem is hardly unique to Argentina. Markets a lot closer to home could face similar trouble.

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